2015 Cyclones Retirement

[bahamaswx]

A man naps in what’s left of his house after Hurricane Joaquin hit the island of Long Island, Bahamas. Still a long way to go to repair the Dunmore Settlement.
October 23, 2015. Photo credit: Kendra Kurz

I sure would like to see Joaquin retired.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I sure would like to see Joaquin retired.

Since you seem to live in the Bahamas, why don't you convey this opinion to whatever government agency there would send the request for retirement to the World Meteorological Association?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoon Koppu should also be retired. Evidently shown in this image..

[CrazyC83]

I am in the camp that Patricia most definitely warrants retirement. However, as pointed out by several of us, the WMO has not retired several powerful tropical cyclones in the past. It is quite striking how many have not been retired.

This season, I think Patricia and Joaquin both should be retired. But, we will see if the Bahamas, United States (indirect effects from Joaquin with the SC flooding), and Mexico enter their requests to the WMO for retiring each of them.

Joaquin is definitely a coin flip, since the Bahamas have never been in this position where they would be leading the retirement efforts due to the unusual track. As for Patricia, agreed that Mexico has good cases for and against it.

[CrazyC83]

Patricia might just going down the retirement route as well with the forecast.

If I replaced them, I would go with Jacinto and Paige, respectively.

I'd much rather see something like Jacob or Jason replace Joaquin and something like Perla, Pia, or Paz replace Patricia.

In most - but not all - cases, the ethnicity of the retiring name is maintained for the replacement name. Sometimes they do cross though.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Patricia might just going down the retirement route as well with the forecast.

If I replaced them, I would go with Jacinto and Paige, respectively.

I'd much rather see something like Jacob or Jason replace Joaquin and something like Perla, Pia, or Paz replace Patricia.

In most - but not all - cases, the ethnicity of the retiring name is maintained for the replacement name. Sometimes they do cross though.

There is no rule about this and I don't think there are that many good examples of the "ethnicity" deliberately being maintained except when the over-polite Canadians came up with an entirely "Spanish" list to replace Juan.

Jacob and Jason are both just as much Spanish forms as English ones, by the way. Both of them occur that way in my Mexican name dictionary. And Patricia is also just as much Spanish as it is English (the masculine form of Patrick in Spanish is Patricio, so of course the feminine is Patricia) so there should be no objection to replacing it with a "Spanish" name even if one thinks "ethnicity" should be maintained.

[CrazyC83]

Going storm by storm, here is how I would consider the retirement prospects of the 2015 storms:

Tropical Storm Ana

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak, forgettable early season storm
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Bill

Case FOR retirement: Not much, but did cause decent flooding
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm with modest impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Claudette

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Danny

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Essentially dissipated before reaching land, little impact
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Erika

Case FOR retirement: Severe damage and loss of life in Dominica
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm, little damage on other islands
My probability of retirement: 25%
Verdict:

Hurricane Fred

Case FOR retirement: Rare hurricane impact for Cape Verde
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage not extreme, Cape Verde not on committee
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Grace

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Henri

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Ida

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts (bye bye curse of I!)
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Joaquin

Case FOR retirement: Severe damage to several islands of the Bahamas, strong storm with loss of life
Case AGAINST retirement: Low population impacted, Bahamas untested in standalone retirement cases
My probability of retirement: 55%
Verdict: (it really could go either way though)

Hurricane Kate

Case FOR retirement: Not much of one
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

In the EPAC, there is only one storm that I see with a retirement case:

Major Hurricane Patricia

Case FOR retirement: Incredibly strong storm, extreme damage in some areas
Case AGAINST retirement: Low loss of life, hardest hit area mostly rural
My probability of retirement: 75%
Verdict:

[northjaxpro]

Joaquin did not directly impact the United States. However, two major events associated with Joaquin tied to the United States should help lead the cause to retire Joaquin's name with the WMO in my opinion. The first major event was the huge plume of moisture which fed from Joaquin that bought the severe flooding to South Carolina, which really impacted many in that region. Also, the tragic sinking of the El Faro cargo ship in Joaquin's northwest eyewall, with 33 people onboard losing their lives, including 28 Americans, will also spur the United States to get the Bahamian government to lead in the effort to get Joaquin's name retired in my view. The El Faro was based right here in Jacksonville. All together, over $100 million in total damages was caused by Joaquin across the Central and SE Bahamas.

Joaquin was the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone since Igor in 2010 and contributed to about half of the total ACE for the entire season in the basin. Joaquin's name should be retired!! It would be mind-boggling to me if this does not happen.

[HurricaneRyan]

Erika was the worst storm for one of those countries since Hurricane David. I think it might have a small shot at retirement

[Alyono]

I suspect Erika will be and Joaquin will not be retired

[zeehag]

i hope they retire patricia.
was not fun to go thru once. second could be a charm from hell.

[Buck]

I think Erika and Joaquin should both be retired from the Atlantic basin lists. Yes, Erika was a weak storm and we've only ever retired one (massively impactful) tropical storm before, but Erika was a catastrophe in Dominica. It set the country back two decades economically. Definitely retire it. Same with Joaquin. A landmark storm. Don't let the low monetary damage total fool you... it is worthy of retirement in every since of the word. And the US might request it anyway, due to El Faro or any ties they see it having to the South Carolina floods.

[HurricaneRyan]

I think Erika and Joaquin should both be retired from the Atlantic basin lists. Yes, Erika was a weak storm and we've only ever retired one (massively impactful) tropical storm before, but Erika was a catastrophe in Dominica. It set the country back two decades economically. Definitely retire it. Same with Joaquin. A landmark storm. Don't let the low monetary damage total fool you... it is worthy of retirement in every since of the word. And the US might request it anyway, due to El Faro or any ties they see it having to the South Carolina floods.

Does Dominica even request retirement for storms that much?

[CrazyC83]

I think Erika and Joaquin should both be retired from the Atlantic basin lists. Yes, Erika was a weak storm and we've only ever retired one (massively impactful) tropical storm before, but Erika was a catastrophe in Dominica. It set the country back two decades economically. Definitely retire it. Same with Joaquin. A landmark storm. Don't let the low monetary damage total fool you... it is worthy of retirement in every since of the word. And the US might request it anyway, due to El Faro or any ties they see it having to the South Carolina floods.

Does Dominica even request retirement for storms that much?

Dominica IS on the committee, so they would be able to make a case. Given that it was their worst storm in decades, they probably don't have much history in retirement cases. https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/ ... r-Com.html

It makes me wonder, what happens if a country not on the committee gets devastated badly by a hurricane in the future - for example, Azores (Portugal), Guyana or Cape Verde? Would someone be able to make a proxy case?

[Buck]

That's a good question about the proxy cases. But even some of the countries on the committee, like Haiti, either haven't always sent representatives or simply haven't made a case for retirement when it was absolutely what should've happened.

[HurricaneRyan]

When will the meeting be held?

[CrazyC83]

When will the meeting be held?

April 21 to 26.

[Hurricaneman]

I believe Joquin will be retired

[HurricaneRyan]

Still betting on Joaquin and Patricia, possibly Erika.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the US submission to the WMO today, Joaquin is recommended for retirement. Surprising the US is making the case and not the Bahamas though...

Proposed replacement names: Julian, Jorge, Jerrold or James (Jorge is my recommendation, to maintain ethnicity)

No mentions on the other names, but Erika would be up to Dominica and Patricia would be up to Mexico.