2015 Cyclones Retirement

[CrazyC83]

This is a thread that is always made, and now I will make my comments.

While it is unclear if the Bahamas will make the case (given that they historically get overshadowed by US or other impacts from the same storms), I do think Joaquin SHOULD be retired, given the extreme damage and historic nature there.

[CrazyC83]

For Atlantic storms, here are the chances IMO of the names being retired:

Ana - <2%
Bill - 2%
Claudette - <2%
Danny - 2%
Erika - 20%
Fred - 5%
Grace - <2%
Henri - <2%
Ida - <2%
Joaquin - 60%

[northjaxpro]

I would be stunned if Joaquin is not retired.

[WeatherGuesser]

While it is unclear if the Bahamas will make the case (given that they historically get overshadowed by US or other impacts from the same storms), I do think Joaquin SHOULD be retired, given the extreme damage and historic nature there.

No word yet from the El Faro with 33 aboard.

[Alyono]

how was this any different from Frances for the Bahamas. In fact, Frances was worse as it also hit the populated islands. This one affected less than 10,000 people it appears

I'd say not enough

[HurricaneBill]

how was this any different from Frances for the Bahamas. In fact, Frances was worse as it also hit the populated islands. This one affected less than 10,000 people it appears

I'd say not enough

One word: Paloma

[Alyono]

how was this any different from Frances for the Bahamas. In fact, Frances was worse as it also hit the populated islands. This one affected less than 10,000 people it appears

I'd say not enough

One word: Paloma

One of many that had no business being retired

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

It is entirely up to whatever government meteorological agency exists in the Bahamas whether or not Joaquin gets retired (unless the USA decides that the South Carolina flooding is enough associated in people's minds with Joaquin for them to ask for its retirement.)

Paloma was retired because the Cayman Islands asked for it to be. Affected countries make their own decisions on this using their own criteria. As far as I know, the international committee that decides this just doesn't retire names unless an affected country specifically asks for it -- and I also don't know of any case where the affected country did ask when they did not retire a name.

[northjaxpro]

Since the World Meteorological Organization Naming Convention was established in 1950, there have only been five requests submitted by the Bahamian government to have hurricanes which impacted their country to be retired, which of course they did get retired:

Donna (1960)
Betsy (1965)
Andrew (1992)
Michelle (2001) impacted the Northern Bahamas
Jeanne (2004) impacted the Northern Bahamas

It is amazing that this list is not longer. So, Joaquin may possibly become the sixth storm to be requested by the Bahamian government. It depends on what their criteria is based. Gran87Wted the most populated areas of the islands were not severely impacted, and if they base their decision on that, then Joaquin may not get submitted by them. However the Central Bahamas region did have devastating impacts. Plus, the storm is about to impact Bermuda, and it is possible they could submit Joaquin' name depending on the impacts there in its aftermath.

I would put the odds of Joaquin's name being retired at this juncture at around 50-50. This could increase if Bermuda suffers major impacts.

[CrazyC83]

It is entirely up to whatever government meteorological agency exists in the Bahamas whether or not Joaquin gets retired (unless the USA decides that the South Carolina flooding is enough associated in people's minds with Joaquin for them to ask for its retirement.)

Paloma was retired because the Cayman Islands asked for it to be. Affected countries make their own decisions on this using their own criteria. As far as I know, the international committee that decides this just doesn't retire names unless an affected country specifically asks for it -- and I also don't know of any case where the affected country did ask when they did not retire a name.

Paloma was one of the worst storms ever for the Cayman Islands. They took a direct hit from a Cat 4 eyewall and two of their islands sustained catastrophic damage, even though no one was killed.

[CrazyC83]

Since the World Meteorological Organization Naming Convention was established in 1950, there have only been five requests submitted by the Bahamian government to have hurricanes which impacted their country to be retired, which of course they did get retired:

Donna (1960)
Betsy (1965)
Andrew (1992)
Michelle (2001) impacted the Northern Bahamas
Jeanne (2004) impacted the Northern Bahamas

It is amazing that this list is not longer. So, Joaquin may possibly become the sixth storm to be requested by the Bahamian government. It depends on what their criteria is based. Gran87Wted the most populated areas of the islands were not severely impacted, and if they base their decision on that, then Joaquin may not get submitted by them. However the Central Bahamas region did have devastating impacts. Plus, the storm is about to impact Bermuda, and it is possible they could submit Joaquin' name depending on the impacts there in its aftermath.

I would put the odds of Joaquin's name being retired at this juncture at around 50-50. This could increase if Bermuda suffers major impacts.

In that list, Michelle also hit Cuba even harder and the other four storms all hit the US very hard as well. This is an unusual situation here, which is why I would say it is a coin flip. There are few storms in history that had extreme impact in the Bahamas and little or no impact elsewhere. (Unless Bermuda gets devastated)

[Alyono]

that means the Bahamas never submitted requests for storms such as Frances (which hit these same islands as a slow moving cat 4), Irene, Floyd, Lili (1996), Wilma, and Ike

[Hammy]

and I also don't know of any case where the affected country did ask when they did not retire a name.

I think I read some time ago that Haiti requested Gordon in 1994 to be retired after it killed over 1100 there, but it ended up staying on the list.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

and I also don't know of any case where the affected country did ask when they did not retire a name.

I think I read some time ago that Haiti requested Gordon in 1994 to be retired after it killed over 1100 there, but it ended up staying on the list.

Dr. Jeff Masters, who is often quoted on this site, says that Haiti did not send a representative to the Spring 1995 WMO meeting and so no formal request for retirement was presented:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 187&page=7

[HurricaneBill]

and I also don't know of any case where the affected country did ask when they did not retire a name.

I think I read some time ago that Haiti requested Gordon in 1994 to be retired after it killed over 1100 there, but it ended up staying on the list.

Dr. Jeff Masters, who is often quoted on this site, says that Haiti did not send a representative to the Spring 1995 WMO meeting and so no formal request for retirement was presented:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 187&page=7

If I remember correctly, wasn't Haiti going through a political crisis during 1994-1995?

[CrazyC83]

Patricia might just going down the retirement route as well with the forecast.

The following names are NOT available as a replacement name:

Male J names - Javier, Jerry, John, Jose, Juan, Julio

Female P names - Paloma, Patty, Paula, Paulette, Pauline, Pilar, Priscilla

If I replaced them, I would go with Jacinto and Paige, respectively.

[northjaxpro]

With the massive flooding that is anticipated across Mexico and Texas in the coming days which will be all attributed to potential Cat 5 Patricia after she makes landfall, yes, this cyclone 's name will most likely be retired.

Also, as you can see in my signature, you all know how I feel about Joaquin.

[HurricaneBill]

Patricia might just going down the retirement route as well with the forecast.

The following names are NOT available as a replacement name:

Female P names - Paloma, Patty, Paula, Paulette, Pilar, Priscilla

Don't forget Pauline, which is what Patricia replaced.

[CrazyC83]

Patricia looks like the first no-brainer retirement of 2015.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lando is now retired by PAGASA