2015 Cyclones Retirement

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Patricia might just going down the retirement route as well with the forecast.

If I replaced them, I would go with Jacinto and Paige, respectively.

I'd much rather see something like Jacob or Jason replace Joaquin and something like Perla, Pia, or Paz replace Patricia.

[Alyono]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

[jaguarjace]

I'd much rather see something like Jacob or Jason replace Joaquin and something like Perla, Pia, or Paz replace Patricia.

I agree, I really do want the name Jason to make an appearance somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. I wasn't around when Cyclone Jason happened in the Australian region.

[WeatherGuesser]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

So far, I'm not seeing the expected catastrophic damage and casualty reports. Their President even says it wasn't as bad as expected.

May fall more to inland flooding damage before things start to add up.

[Yellow Evan]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

So far, I'm not seeing the expected catastrophic damage and casualty reports. Their President even says it wasn't as bad as expected.

May fall more to inland flooding damage before things start to add up.

People said the same thing about Katrina shortly after it struck. Let's wait and see.

[Alyono]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

So far, I'm not seeing the expected catastrophic damage and casualty reports. Their President even says it wasn't as bad as expected.

May fall more to inland flooding damage before things start to add up.

People said the same thing about Katrina shortly after it struck. Let's wait and see.

Not really. Everyone immediately knew Mississippi and southern Louisiana was wiped out from Katrina

[HurricaneBill]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

Kenna caused far less damage than recent Mexican hurricanes and was still retired. Juliette (2001), Lane (2006), Jimena (2009), and Jova (2011) were all more damaging than Kenna.

Personally, I think an intense landfall actually increases Patricia's chances of retirement.

[northjaxpro]

an intense hurricane striking Mexico is not automatic retirement. The preliminary damage reports indicate that may be back in 6 years

Kenna caused far less damage than recent Mexican hurricanes and was still retired. Juliette (2001), Lane (2006), Norbert (2008), and Jova (2011) were all more damaging than Kenna.

Personally, I think an intense landfall actually increases Patricia's chances of retirement.

Patricia's name should and will be retired. End of debate!

[WeatherGuesser]

Did some looking to get some references on this. Wondering if it was damage/casualty based or if they did it for 'historical' reasons like setting records. Can't find much of a pattern. So if MX doesn't request it?


Curious though as to why Knut was retired.

I see a few that were done for political reasons. And a couple that were done over name confusion/similarity.

Yet there have been very strong, record breakers and setters that were not retired.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Did some looking to get some references on this. Wondering if it was damage/casualty based or if they did it for 'historical' reasons like setting records. Can't find much of a pattern. So if MX doesn't request it?


Curious though as to why Knut was retired.

I see a few that were done for political reasons. And a couple that were done over name confusion/similarity.

Yet there have been very strong, record breakers and setters that were not retired.

Knut's case may be the same as Fefa's as well, both names don't make sense and perhaps the crowd wom't take these seriously. Nobody wants a kick by a Knut Lol, seriously though it is a mystery, retired for no reason.

[HurricaneRyan]

Would Texas request Patricia to be retired?

[1900hurricane]

Would Texas request Patricia to be retired?

I'd be very surprised if such a request was made. Despite the amounts of rain that were dropped (I myself recorded 9.16", and that was far from the most), impacts were fairly minimal. Really the only places that saw issues were around Corsicana, where over 20" of rain fell. For the most part, the heaviest rain fell over and near the D4 area, and the rain fell at a generally steady enough rate to where the ground could soak most of the rainfall up and allow the rest to drain away in the river systems. In terms of retirement, it's also worth noting that Patricia was just one piece of the puzzle that led to the large quantities of rainfall.

[SapphireSea]

I believe Mexico/US will retire Patricia based on the fact that it was a record breaking storm in research. As far as I know - strength metrics have high weight for retirement due to recordkeeping; As well as the fact that I cannot think of any landfalling Cat 4+ not being retired.

[Hammy]

As well as the fact that I cannot think of any landfalling Cat 4+ not being retired.

Emily in 2005 was not retired despite making landfall in the Yucatan with 115kt winds, though there was heavy debate at the time that this was a bad decision.

[Yellow Evan]

As well as the fact that I cannot think of any landfalling Cat 4+ not being retired.

Tico 83 and Liza 76 weren't retired.

[1900hurricane]

Hurricane Edith made landfall near the Honduras/Nicaragua border in 1971 as a category 5 (pending reanalysis) and did not get retired.

[SapphireSea]

I stand corrected on my statement; But it appears that for recordkeeping it may be retired. 70s was kind of mired by issues where perhaps the involvement of those countries were limited in terms of naming. Patricia (2015) will likely be the strongest for some time possibly 100 years. Retiring it now would reduce some confusion down the line.

[WeatherGuesser]

Patricia (2015) will likely be the strongest for some time possibly 100 years.

I have no idea what you're basing that on, but there could easily be several more in the next few years.

[SapphireSea]

Patricia (2015) will likely be the strongest for some time possibly 100 years.

I have no idea what you're basing that on, but there could easily be several more in the next few years.

It is most definitely 'possible' the fact that Patricia is the strongest in that basin may or may not last. Likely and possibly are not an absolute statement; If I were to state that I know for a fact then one could seriously cast doubt on what I said. In any case, a basin where the storm with lowest pressure was 902 (Linda) since recording started through 1997 has its record shattered by 25-27mb has a good chance to stand. For whatever reason it took in some cases up to 20 years for comparable storms to spawn (barring missed recons) but modern observations have shown that this is not the norm.

In any case its quite possible that they don't retire it. The most gawking contradiction to my "recordkeeping" rationale 97' Linda was also not retired despite reaching unseen depths as well. But, this was a Category 5 landfall; It depends on Mexico and the US to deem it fit to retire it (because it created scientific and damage and needs to be uniquely categorized by name).

[northjaxpro]

I am in the camp that Patricia most definitely warrants retirement. However, as pointed out by several of us, the WMO has not retired several powerful tropical cyclones in the past. It is quite striking how many have not been retired.

This season, I think Patricia and Joaquin both should be retired. But, we will see if the Bahamas, United States (indirect effects from Joaquin with the SC flooding), and Mexico enter their requests to the WMO for retiring each of them.