Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[Alyono]

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though

Never heard of that before. Example?

many times over northern Australia for one. Also, Allison's intensification over central Mississippi. Erin's development over Oklahoma

[WeatherEmperor]

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though

Never heard of that before. Example?

Keep in mind folks that this is the same GFS or "MU" as some call it that had a Hurricane very near South Florida on Oct 19th plus or minus 1 day in the long range up until late last week. Now, the GFS has what appears to be a TS developing overland near MX/TX border in the 7-8 day range and that is more believable?

I don't know but it doesn't look right...

[gatorcane]

Two runs in a row where the GFS spins off a low near Belize Yucatan and develops in the NW Caribbean where the cyclone gets ejected to the North or Northeast, all in the long-range

[LarryWx]

How it is legit for a TC to form over land on the MU?

If the upper dynamics are favorable, a TC will form over land. They are favorable this time

I want to see what the CMC and EC show though

If a TC were to have a genesis inland over TX as opposed to on the coast, it would be the first one on record. (No dots on any of these ten day maps inland in TX and these maps go back to 1851). Now this is one I may bet the farm against and I very rarely bet the farm on anything lol.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

Looking more closely at the 12Z MU, it is already down to near 1000 mb inland far S TX just before the supposed TC genesis. I wonder if this is purely tropical.

[WeatherEmperor]

Two runs in a row where the GFS spins off a low near Belize Yucatan and develops in the NW Caribbean where the cyclone gets ejected to the North or Northeast, all in the long-range

Gator, I see the GFS starts a Low in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs and turns it into a Hurricane slowly moving towards South Florida where the run ends at 384 hrs with a Hurricane approaching South Florida on November 1 LOL!

[Sanibel]

Something's persisting down there.

[TheStormExpert]

Two runs in a row where the GFS spins off a low near Belize Yucatan and develops in the NW Caribbean where the cyclone gets ejected to the North or Northeast, all in the long-range

Gator, I see the GFS starts a Low in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs and turns it into a Hurricane slowly moving towards South Florida where the run ends at 384 hrs with a Hurricane approaching South Florida on November 1 LOL!

If the MJO sticks around long enough could it happen? Not buying it though since what happened last year with the GFS blowing up hurricanes in the W. Caribbean and sending them towards Florida.

[LarryWx]

Two runs in a row where the GFS spins off a low near Belize Yucatan and develops in the NW Caribbean where the cyclone gets ejected to the North or Northeast, all in the long-range

Gator, I see the GFS starts a Low in the NW Caribbean at 240hrs and turns it into a Hurricane slowly moving towards South Florida where the run ends at 384 hrs with a Hurricane approaching South Florida on November 1 LOL!

If the MJO sticks around long enough could it happen? Not buying it though since what happened last year with the GFS blowing up hurricanes in the W. Caribbean and sending them towards Florida.

You're not buying an MU day 13-16 TC? Well, neither am I.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras
associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of
cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development of this system during the next day or so
while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday
or Monday if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this system could produce heavy
rainfall across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[LarryWx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras
associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of
cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development of this system during the next day or so
while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday
or Monday if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this system could produce heavy
rainfall across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

Well, it is about time!!

[TheStormExpert]

You're not buying an MU day 13-16 TC? Well, neither am I.

Yep, call me in a week if it still even shows it!

[LarryWx]

You're not buying an MU day 13-16 TC? Well, neither am I.

Yep, call me in a week if it still even shows it!

Honestly, I'd rather wait 10 days as unreliable is the MU.

Next, the UKMET, JMA, NAVGEM, and the KING!

[Weatherwatcher98]

Oh, I know they intensify over land, Katrina over south Florida is a great example, Just never thought they formed over land. Thanks

[Weatherwatcher98]

You're not buying an MU day 13-16 TC? Well, neither am I.

Yep, call me in a week if it still even shows it!

Honestly, I'd rather wait 10 days as unreliable is the MU.

Next, the UKMET, JMA, NAVGEM, and the KING!

GFS Had a Left Bias almost till the end with Joaquin. I Just don't see a Texas Hit this late in the Season. LA east to the Panhandle is more likely. IMO.

[WeatherEmperor]

Oh, I know they intensify over land, Katrina over south Florida is a great example, Just never thought they formed over land. Thanks

Exactly! This is why I am one of those skeptical that something will form over land...and travel over land while remaining intact to potentially affect Texas as a Tropical Cyclone.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh, I know they intensify over land, Katrina over south Florida is a great example, Just never thought they formed over land. Thanks

Exactly! This is why I am one of those skeptical that something will form over land...and travel over land while remaining intact to potentially affect Texas as a Tropical Cyclone.

I'm not buying the development and strengthening of a tropical cyclone over land either.

[SFLcane]

‏@philklotzbach twitter...Several models call for a Gulf TC next week - figure shows tracks of TCs thru the Gulf from 10/16-11/30 since 1878.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 92L