Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

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Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:13 pm

I feel like in light of recent events, this might be a good thread to start. In the wake of Hurricane Patricia, I've noticed a good deal of discussion pertaining to other tropical cyclones start to spill over onto other threads, so hopefully this one can unify the discussion.

The premise of the thread is simple: Which tropical cyclones do you think were most intense? How strong were they really? Which ones do you think were underrated and belong in the discussion? Are there some that you feel are overrated and maybe shouldn't belong? Where can/do these tropical cyclones occur? How does the approach towards land have an influence of these tropical cyclones? Pretty much anything is free game to discuss when it comes to the greats, but let's get the discussion going! When possible, try to explain your reasoning to support your thoughts, and also please be respectful towards differing opinions. Hopefully, we'll all get a chance to learn something new!

With that being said, let the discussion begin!
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#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:52 pm

These pressures are my opinion based on if recon had gone in
Typhoon Haiyan 872
Typhoon Tip 870
Typhoon Gay 865
Typhoon Angela 868
Typhoon June 865 {dropsonde was 875 but in the eyewall
Tropical Cyclone Monica 868
Typhoon Andy 871
Typhoon Yuri 869
Typhoon Forrest 872
Hurricane Patricia 875{Will probably be revised to}

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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:59 pm

To get the discussion going, I'll go ahead and lead off with a storm that I think may be a tad underrated, or at least looked over. That storm would be Super Typhoon Nuri of 2014. Nuri was the second of three T7.5 rated typhoons occurring in the back half of the 2014 typhoon season (preceded by Vongfong and followed by Hagupit), and perhaps a tad overshadowed by its contemporaries. Nuri is also perhaps more known for its extratropical bombogenesis than its time as a tropical cyclone. It almost feels weird to call a 155 kt typhoon underrated, but I also have a hunch that it was, particularly following the recon obs from the very similar appearing Hurricane Patricia. Nuri developed in an area with low background pressures and maintained an outermost closed isobar of 1004 mb near peak strength according to NCEP analysis. Nuri and Patricia also behaved similarly, explosively intensifying on their third day as a classified tropical cyclone and holding a small intense core for over a day without beginning eyewall replacement. As I already mentioned, Nuri and Patricia were very similar in appearance and structure, but Nuri actually maintained a colder CDO and registered a warmer eye from geostationary imagery, although Nuri's eye was just a little bit larger and viewed at less of an angle than Patricia. Recon did not fly into Nuri (and has not been regularly flown in the western Pacific basin in some time now), which leaves us with a scarcity of data to accurately estimate its maximum intensity, but based on the above, I do believe that Super Typhoon Nuri was likely of similar intensity to that of Hurricane Patricia.

Image
Image

Back to back comparison of Nuri (top) and Patricia (bottom) near the point in which their coldest CDOs were observed.

*EDIT for typo.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:22 pm

Some guesses in terms of winds (knts) based off of memory of how they looked:

Haiyan 185
Patricia 180
Gay 180
June 180
Angela 175
Megi 175
Monica 170
Zeb 170
Ivan 170
Joan 170
Nida 170
Andy 165
Linda 165
Nuri 165
Allen 165
Wilma 165
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#5 Postby blp » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:41 pm

I think some discussion about the differences in basins with regard to pressure and wind relationships would be helpful. I am not a met but I have heard that you cannot treat a storm in each basin the same.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:59 pm

It's important to consider many factors include eye size, low level structure, movement speed, P/W relationship, latitudes etc. rather than comparing only by CDO temperatures. Look similarly intense on IR imagery doesn't necessarily mean they have similar windspeeds. As 1900hurricane said Nuri from last year maybe a relatively good analog for Patricia, but other than that I cannot justify true intensities of most other TCs using Patricia as an example alone.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#7 Postby blp » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:11 pm

As Alyonso pointed out having a monsoon type development origin also has an effect on strength. We saw that with Patricia and Wilma made those systems very strong.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:12 pm

blp wrote:As Alyonso pointed out having a monsoon type development origin also has an effect on strength. We saw that with Patricia and Wilma made those systems very strong.


Strength? Or just pressure?
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#9 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:20 pm

Hurricanes developed from monsoon system have larger moisture envelope which typically made them less vulnerable to dry air. However this does not directly contribute to their peak strength.
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#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:26 pm

Some good points regarding intensity estimates are being brought up. There really are so many factors that have to be considered when analyzing a storm's intensity.

One question I personally have that I would love to look more into is why tropical cyclones that originate from a monsoon trough seem to have notably lower pressures than those that do not. Is it solely a background pressure thing, or does the storm's genesis have long reaching effects on storm structure that'll eventually dictate the pressure? Like I mentioned, I don't know enough about the subject to say much definitively. If I were to guess though, I would think it's mostly background pressures, but with storm size also playing a role. Just speculation, but that's more or less what I made this thread for, after all! :ggreen:
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#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:28 pm

Other fundamental questions include:


how much weight do you place towards the eye temperature? How much does CDO thickness matter? How much does having a cold "ring" of cloudtops but not necessarily CDO thickness matter?
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:49 pm

Here's a classic example of how IR imagery can be misleading, and with recon support

Typhoon Jangmi when recon measured 140kt and 906mb

Image


Hurricane Katrina when recon measured 150kt and 902mb

Image

They are similar in both size and structure but Katrina is confirmed to be the stronger one despite looks a lot weaker on satellite.
Higher latitude and background pressure in GOM is likely the reason in this case
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#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:25 pm

One thing that I've seen but not sure I agree with is that Super Typhoon June of 1975 could have been stronger than Tip, and probably the biggest reason why is 700 mb heights. June's minimum 700 mb height according to the 1975 JTWC report is 1984 m, 40 m higher than that observed for Tip's 870 mb pass. It doesn't set anything in stone, but for me at least, that is sufficient evidence for me to conclude that Tip was the deeper of the two.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#14 Postby blp » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:35 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Here's a classic example of how IR imagery can be misleading, and with recon support

Typhoon Jangmi when recon measured 140kt and 906mb

[]http://i.imgur.com/i0e6tyT.jpg[/img]


Hurricane Katrina when recon measured 150kt and 902mb

[]http://i.imgur.com/yPZN3Du.jpg[/img]

They are similar in both size and structure but Katrina is confirmed to be the stronger one despite looks a lot weaker on satellite.
Higher latitude and background pressure in GOM is likely the reason in this case


Good example.

I find issue when some say that WPAC storms are always stronger than Atlantic storms. I think it is not that simple to make that comparison. I do agree that the WPAC has an advantage over the Atlantic because of the vast size of the development area allowing more systems to develop with greater opportunity to reach a strong designation.

Very interesting topic. I think we should try to compile a list of variables during this offseason and try to find a common theme so we can test it out during next season. It would be interesting to see if we could find a pattern to predict the next big one. The Storm2k technique :lol: .
Last edited by blp on Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:37 pm

1900hurricane wrote:One thing that I've seen but not sure I agree with is that Super Typhoon June of 1975 could have been stronger than Tip, and probably the biggest reason why is 700 mb heights. June's minimum 700 mb height according to the 1975 JTWC report is 1984 m, 40 m higher than that observed for Tip's 870 mb pass. It doesn't set anything in stone, but for me at least, that is sufficient evidence for me to conclude that Tip was the deeper of the two.


Recon from June was dropped in the eyewall and recorded a pressure of 876mbar if memory serves correct. The pressure in the eye is presumed to have been lower.
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Re:

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:37 pm

I remember the preliminary extrapolated pressure for Tip is below 870mb. Forgot where's the source right now.
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Re: Intense Tropical Cyclone Discussion

#17 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:23 pm

blp wrote:Good example.

I find issue when some say that WPAC storms are always stronger than Atlantic storms. I think it is not that simple to make that comparison. I do agree that the WPAC has an advantage over the Atlantic because of the vast size of the development area allowing more systems to develop with greater opportunity to reach a strong designation.

Very interesting topic. I think we should try to compile a list of variables during this offseason and try to find a common theme so we can test it out during next season. It would be interesting to see if we could find a pattern to predict the next big one. The Storm2k technique :lol: .

Honestly I really hate the Dvorak technique now, especially those of JTWC and SAB. While low-cost to forecasting weak or mid-strength storms in areas where recon is not available, it’s a complete crap when comes to determine the actual intensity of intense hurricane. There are many unsolved problems even with recon (fl to sfc wind relationship, reliability of high SFMR winds etc.). How can we just take two set of satellite image and say which one is stronger? Recon for strong storms in the past ten years include Wilma, Felix, Megi, and Patricia have revealed how little we know about TC windspeeds. Although currently no better technique is introduced, IMO there're more things we need to keep in mind when looking at Dvorak numbers.
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:27 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:One thing that I've seen but not sure I agree with is that Super Typhoon June of 1975 could have been stronger than Tip, and probably the biggest reason why is 700 mb heights. June's minimum 700 mb height according to the 1975 JTWC report is 1984 m, 40 m higher than that observed for Tip's 870 mb pass. It doesn't set anything in stone, but for me at least, that is sufficient evidence for me to conclude that Tip was the deeper of the two.


Recon from June was dropped in the eyewall and recorded a pressure of 876mbar if memory serves correct. The pressure in the eye is presumed to have been lower.


I've seen that stated here before, but I could never track down a reliable source. If true, it could lend some credence to that line of thought, but until then, I'd be more inclined to go with the 700 mb height.
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:39 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I remember the preliminary extrapolated pressure for Tip is below 870mb. Forgot where's the source right now.


I imagine that is a product of Tip's 700 mb height of 1944 m, since I'm pretty sure that's how the extrapolated surface pressures are derived.
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Re: Re:

#20 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:40 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Recon from June was dropped in the eyewall and recorded a pressure of 876mbar if memory serves correct. The pressure in the eye is presumed to have been lower.


I've seen that stated here before, but I could never track down a reliable source. If true, it could lend some credence to that line of thought, but until then, I'd be more inclined to go with the 700 mb height.

From JTWC annual report

Image

The pressure could've been a few mbs lower depends on the exact location of drop, but I highly doubt it was lower than Tip's.
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