Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

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Alyono
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#261 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:57 pm

SFMR had 91 kts at landfall for Isabel. 95 kts may be a better approximation of the landfall winds
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#262 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:54 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
I'd need to see other images, but I would set it at 125 kt right there. That would EASILY be the strongest storm so far east - I'm not aware of any storms that strong even east of 40W, forget 30W. That should also be a wakeup call for Cape Verde knowing that a cat 4 storm could occur so close to them...

What site has those old satellites? I'm curious about other older storms.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/

Yep, that's exactly where I acquired those images.


I like looking past satellite images of hurricanes and other rain events.

Hurricane Isabel in 2003 looked very impressive on satellite. I even thought 145 knots was a bit on the low side. 160 knots sounds about right.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#263 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:09 pm

Given its location way out in the Central Atlantic and the lowest pressure measured by recon, Isabel likely had windspeed higher than Irma at peak intensity.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#264 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pm

It's possible, but I don't think I would have enough confidence to go that high without either recon data or a really high SATCON estimate, which Isabel '03 unfortunately predates. I'd probably set peak intensity at 18Z September 11th to 155 kt/910 mb or so. Aside from the official peak intensity, that's also higher than the Dvorak Technique estimates (155 kt is a verbatim T7.5 intensity estimate), and the windspeed is a little higher than KZC would estimate for that pressure, but neither is exceptionally so like observed with Irma '17. I'm certainly open to revising this estimate, but I think we need to know more about what makes the most intense tropical cyclones do what they do before I'm comfortable doing so. For what it's worth though, Isabel 03's and Irma 17's SSMI microwave presentations did look similarly intense near peak intensity, at least to my eyes. Both of the passes below were taken by the same satellite (DMSP F-15) on the same frequency (85 GHz) to try to eliminate as many variables as possible.

Image

Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#265 Postby NotoSans » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:05 am

NotoSans wrote:JMA has actually been conducting reanalysis on Typhoon Haiyan using Doppler radar data. The related documents are given below. It is said in the second document that the paper regarding the reanalysis will be submitted by the end of 2017, but as far as I know the paper has yet to be published.

https://confit.atlas.jp/guide/event-img ... df?type=in
http://www.typhooncommittee.org/49th/Do ... ionJMA.pdf


The paper has been released early online on Monthly Weather Review. Inner core structure is also discussed in the paper.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -17-0120.1
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#266 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:52 pm

Heh, so pressure estimates of 860 mb and 906 mb have been derived for Haiyan '13. Just your typical 46 mb estimation range...
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#267 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:00 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Heh, so pressure estimates of 860 mb and 906 mb have been derived for Haiyan '13. Just your typical 46 mb estimation range...


The real pressure was probably somewhere in the middle. Using the Schloemer equation from data provided by iCyclone and other storm chasers gave me a Leyte landfall estimate of 897 mb.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#268 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:35 pm

As I mentioned on the previous page, I've begun to do some reanalysis work on Pacific typhoons as a personal project. Today, I posted an introduction to my reanalysis work on my blog. It is just an introduction, meaning there is no actual reanalysis done in this particular entry, but it does go into more detail on the why and how this reanalysis is being conducted. My next several entries will be dedicated to the topic of reanalysis, with a few entries over the next week or two about the 1979 Typhoon Season (since that is the only season I have completed at this time) and more likely to come after that. If anyone is curious, feel free to read!

Reanalyzing Pacific Typhoon Seasons: An Introduction

*EDIT: I now have my post on the 1979 Pacific Typhoon Season reanalysis up.

Reanalyzing Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1979
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#269 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:From what I can tell, in the Dvorak satellite era, storms that reached cat 4 or 5 without Recon at an Atlantic peak (relative or absolute) were:

* 1981 Harvey
* 1988 Helene
* 1991 Claudette
* 1995 Felix
* 1996 Edouard
* 1999 Cindy
* 1999 Gert
* 2000 Isaac
* 2003 Isabel
* 2004 Karl
* 2008 Ike
* 2010 Igor
* 2010 Julia
* 2011 Katia
* 2011 Ophelia

Isabel is the only storm in this era known to have reached cat 5 without Recon in the Atlantic.

Revisiting this, after looking at images of these systems from HURSAT and NRL, I think the strongest of this group aside from Isabel is probably Edouard '96. Instantaneous DTs did reach 7.0 around 06Z, August 25th, which is when the NHC estimated the overall peak intensity of 125 kt/933 mb.

Image

I'd say the darkhorse strong one is Claudette '91, a system that featured a white CDO shade and a pinhole eye.

Image

Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#270 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:13 am

1900hurricane wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:From what I can tell, in the Dvorak satellite era, storms that reached cat 4 or 5 without Recon at an Atlantic peak (relative or absolute) were:

* 1981 Harvey
* 1988 Helene
* 1991 Claudette
* 1995 Felix
* 1996 Edouard
* 1999 Cindy
* 1999 Gert
* 2000 Isaac
* 2003 Isabel
* 2004 Karl
* 2008 Ike
* 2010 Igor
* 2010 Julia
* 2011 Katia
* 2011 Ophelia

Isabel is the only storm in this era known to have reached cat 5 without Recon in the Atlantic.

Revisiting this, after looking at images of these systems from HURSAT and NRL, I think the strongest of this group aside from Isabel is probably Edouard '96. Instantaneous DTs did reach 7.0 around 06Z, August 25th, which is when the NHC estimated the overall peak intensity of 125 kt/933 mb.

Image

I'd say the darkhorse strong one is Claudette '91, a system that featured a white CDO shade and a pinhole eye.

Image

Image


I've always felt Edouard 1996 was stronger than estimated pre-Recon as well. Recon found 125 kt winds on its first flight the next day, but the Dvorak presentation had dropped quite a bit. Out of a bit of caution, I would go with 135 kt for the actual peak intensity. Claudette looks to be 125 kt.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#271 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:08 am

I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#272 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:06 am

euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?

This certainly wasn’t a “WPAC” centric thread from my interpretation. The title literally states “discussion of intense tropical cyclones”, not “discussion of intense tropical cyclones only if you compare to the great and all powerful WPAC”. Not everything needs to be a “WPAC vs” thread.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#273 Postby psyclone » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:15 pm

euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?


That's not at all what it said. read it again. One thing it did say is...
be respectful of differing opinions...
the "my basin can beat up your basin" posts are non productive, tiresome and frankly played
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#274 Postby znel52 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:31 pm

psyclone wrote:
euro6208 wrote:I thought this thread (as indicated in the first few post) was to talk about record breaking storms (Patricia) rivalring the WPAC Super Typhoons but Atlantic hurricanes reaching Cat 4 or 5? Is there anything else to talk about except Wilma and Gilbert?


That's not at all what it said. read it again. One thing it did say is...
be respectful of differing opinions...
the "my basin can beat up your basin" posts are non productive, tiresome and frankly played


Agreed. I'm just gonna come out and say it for everyone else I'm to the point of not caring anymore. The mods won't do anything to this guy but give him a "warning" so this mess continues all the time. I honestly think it keeps a lot of people of engaging in productive conversation. Nobody wants to come on here and see a bunch of crying. Ban me, give me a timeout whatever. I can't even enjoy coming on here and learning about one of my favorite things because of constant whining.
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