Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#601 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:48 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Potential new world record holder (if validated) for lowest land based barometric pressure reading (and there's a huge gap between this and the currently recognized record holder)

https://twitter.com/JoshuaCAgar/status/1346652215428018177?s=19

In September 14, 2016, when Typhoon Ferdie was hovering over Itbayat Island, the pressure station recorded a barometric pressure of 868.76 hPa (Sea-level equivalent: 877.91 hPa).Data from: Advanced Sciences and Technology Institute pic.twitter.com/S395oNw1XR
-- Joshua C. Agar (@JoshuaCAgar) January 6, 2021


That would be the most intense landfalling tropical cyclone and more so than Super Typhoon Tip. :eek: :cold: :double:

Makes me wonder if there are tropical cyclones that have central pressure of 850 millibars or lower.


It's just station Pressure. The SLP is higher by about 9 to 10 hPa after conversion therefore it still won't beat Tip.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#602 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:51 pm

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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#603 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:11 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Potential new world record holder (if validated) for lowest land based barometric pressure reading (and there's a huge gap between this and the currently recognized record holder)

https://twitter.com/JoshuaCAgar/status/1346652215428018177?s=19

In September 14, 2016, when Typhoon Ferdie was hovering over Itbayat Island, the pressure station recorded a barometric pressure of 868.76 hPa (Sea-level equivalent: 877.91 hPa).Data from: Advanced Sciences and Technology Institute pic.twitter.com/S395oNw1XR
-- Joshua C. Agar (@JoshuaCAgar) January 6, 2021


That would be the most intense landfalling tropical cyclone and more so than Super Typhoon Tip. :eek: :cold: :double:

Makes me wonder if there are tropical cyclones that have central pressure of 850 millibars or lower.


It's just station Pressure. The SLP is higher by about 9 to 10 hPa after conversion therefore it still won't beat Tip.


That is still low. :eek: :double:
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#604 Postby NotoSans » Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:33 am

JMA has published its best track for Goni.
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1357215359367925760


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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#605 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:32 pm

Typhoon Ida in 1945 might make a case for being more intense than Tip 1979. Ship USS Repose recorded 150kt winds and pressure of 865mb (25.55inHg) when it reportedly got in Ida's eye near Okinawa.
https://archive.org/details/USSReposeSc ... ne16450926

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1358270029066739712


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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#606 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:25 pm

Ida '45 is certainly an impressive system. The many deep pressure and high wind reports are certainly indicative of a system with rare intensity, especially for that region. However, the location is probably the number one reason I am skeptical of the 865 mb pressure reading reported by that ship just off Okinawa. With recorded coordinates of 25.85ºN, 128.2ºE when the 865 mb pressure was reported, such a reading is well outside the bounds of anything we've yet recorded even fifteen millibars higher.

Image
Fig 2. The maximum intensity (i.e. lowest central pressure, in hPa) of tropical cyclones in August (when they are most common in the northern hemisphere), according to Emanuel's theory (2). Also plotted are the positions and central pressures of some of the most intense tropical storms ever observed.

Every TC with a pressure recorded at or below 880 mb had the reading taken at or south of 20ºN, with Meranti '16 being the furthest north if the pressure data from Itbayat discussed in this thread is reliable. At the ship's reported latitude, five degrees further north and similar to that of Brownsville or Miami, the deepest pressure recorded I am aware of is from Flo '90, which had an 891 mb drop. While very deep, that is still a huge departure above the alleged Ida '45 pressure. A pressure of 865 mb might not even be possible that far poleward.

The 916 mb pressure in Kyushu is also very deep, the deepest pressure I am aware of that far poleward from a TC, but that isn't quite the outlier reading the 865 mb pressure was. Babe '77 had a 907 mb pressure recorded just a little south of Kyushu in the northern Ryukyus, the deepest pressure recorded in Japan. Further up the coast, Vera '59 maintained a 926 mb pressure a couple degrees further north. Finally, on the other side of the world, Camille '69 deepened to 900 mb at its gulf coast landfall, only a degree or so further south than Ida '45's landfall in Kyushu.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#607 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:41 pm

SLP observations by recon in 2018's STY Trami. Trami was slightly past its peak when the first flight reached the eye, recording a SLP of 918.8mb.
https://presentations.copernicus.org/EG ... tation.pdf

Japan's recon project was supposed to run from 2017-2020 with 1-2 typhoons to be observed per year, but I have not heard of any more missions after Lan (2017) and Trami.

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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#608 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:29 pm

The most impressive typhoon, Typhoon Tip, became the largest tropical cyclone. Why was is so large? Storms that large are almost always near ex-tropical yet Tip was at its peak when it was its largest. I mean, that storm was absolutely insane.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#609 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:33 am

Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#610 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:06 am

aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg

It didn't just hold; it looks even better.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#611 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:09 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg

It didn't just hold; it looks even better.
Too bad it will soon be sheared to death.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#612 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:12 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg

It didn't just hold; it looks even better.
Too bad it will soon be sheared to death.


It's now a C5 . . . :eek:
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#613 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:27 am

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:It didn't just hold; it looks even better.
Too bad it will soon be sheared to death.


It's now a C5 . . . :eek:
I know it has been a cat 5 before I posted.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#614 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:04 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg

It didn't just hold; it looks even better.
Too bad it will soon be sheared to death.
And it is rapidly weakening as I predicted. Feels good.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#615 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:54 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:The most impressive typhoon, Typhoon Tip, became the largest tropical cyclone. Why was is so large? Storms that large are almost always near ex-tropical yet Tip was at its peak when it was its largest. I mean, that storm was absolutely insane.

I think Tip's origins and intensification environment had a profound effect on its evolution leading up to peak intensity. Tip developed on the eastern end of an active monsoon trough, and at first, it had to share the monsoon trough with Tropical Storm Roger to the west. Roger quickly lifted poleward and out though, giving Tip access to the entirety of the monsoon trough without any competition. In response, the consolidating Tip developed a large circulation. I think this setup is somewhat similar to that of Super Typhoon Lan from 2017, another system that had unrestricted access to the entirety of an active monsoon trough. Given such a large circulation in these two cases, it would take several days with near ideal conditions for the system to properly consolidate. That wasn't an issue for Tip though, which moved slowly and occasionally erratically to the WNW over the warm fertile waters east of Guam. This is in sharp contrast to Lan, which was captured by a passing mid-latitude trough and pulled poleward into the subtropics just before reaching maturity. It took three days for the sprawling circulation of Tip to fully consolidate a core during the period of undisturbed development from October 7th to the 10th, but once complete, it began its first episode of rapid intensification on October 10th. Below, you can see Tip consolidating early in its development phase on October 7th and 8th, respectively.

Image

Image

Something else I think needs further discussion when referring to Tip's size record is how size of tropical cyclones is actually measured. Should size be measured by the radius of tropical storm force winds? Would the radius of the outermost closed isobar be better? How about overall cloud footprint? In the Tip report by Dunnavan & Dieicks, it makes mention on the first page that the oft-cited Tip size record of a 2220 km diameter (radius of 1110 km/600 nm) is measured using the highest/outermost closed isobar of the system. Using the 20th Century v3 data, I arrived at at almost the exact same size for the pressure field. This is a pretty common measurement for tropical cyclones, particularly of that time. However, this is different than the diameter of TS winds, which is perhaps a more common way to convey tropical cyclone size today. In fact, the way the WMO recognizes Tropical Storm Marco from 2008's small size record is by the TS wind radius, creating a notable disconnect between the two records.

Image

That's not to say Tip's size wasn't noteworthy. A correlation definitely exists between the size of the outermost closed isobar and TS wind field in mature TCs. In fact, aircraft recon mission 26 into Tip reported exceptionally large storm and typhoon wind radii when reducing from a 700 mb flight level. However, that record needs to be looked at with a skeptical eye for sure given some of the different ways TC size can be measured. Both recon and satellite data (SMAP pass below) indicated Tedward in 2020 had larger wind radii than even Tip's mission 26 just before it finished extratropical transition. Also, when examining the td9635 Typhoon Analog dataset, which kept record of tropical cyclone size using the diameter of the outermost closed isobar in degrees latitude in 1976 and prior, larger TCs than Tip can be found using that metric here as well. Storms like Super Typhoon Lan from 2017 and Super Typhoon Hagibis from 2019 may have been closer to Tip's peak size than many realize.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1365863176244453378




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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#616 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:11 pm

Thank you 1900Hurricane. Great draft. Also by tedward did you mean Teddy? Also too bad we can't get a storm like Tip in the Atlantic(or maybe that is a good thing).
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#617 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:03 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Ida '45 is certainly an impressive system. The many deep pressure and high wind reports are certainly indicative of a system with rare intensity, especially for that region. However, the location is probably the number one reason I am skeptical of the 865 mb pressure reading reported by that ship just off Okinawa. With recorded coordinates of 25.85ºN, 128.2ºE when the 865 mb pressure was reported, such a reading is well outside the bounds of anything we've yet recorded even fifteen millibars higher.

https://i.imgur.com/XExsjxM.gif
Fig 2. The maximum intensity (i.e. lowest central pressure, in hPa) of tropical cyclones in August (when they are most common in the northern hemisphere), according to Emanuel's theory (2). Also plotted are the positions and central pressures of some of the most intense tropical storms ever observed.

Every TC with a pressure recorded at or below 880 mb had the reading taken at or south of 20ºN, with Meranti '16 being the furthest north if the pressure data from Itbayat discussed in this thread is reliable. At the ship's reported latitude, five degrees further north and similar to that of Brownsville or Miami, the deepest pressure recorded I am aware of is from Flo '90, which had an 891 mb drop. While very deep, that is still a huge departure above the alleged Ida '45 pressure. A pressure of 865 mb might not even be possible that far poleward.

The 916 mb pressure in Kyushu is also very deep, the deepest pressure I am aware of that far poleward from a TC, but that isn't quite the outlier reading the 865 mb pressure was. Babe '77 had a 907 mb pressure recorded just a little south of Kyushu in the northern Ryukyus, the deepest pressure recorded in Japan. Further up the coast, Vera '59 maintained a 926 mb pressure a couple degrees further north. Finally, on the other side of the world, Camille '69 deepened to 900 mb at its gulf coast landfall, only a degree or so further south than Ida '45's landfall in Kyushu.


That 891 from Flo is not far off the latitude where the Labor Day Hurricane reached 892. As far as 916 in Kyushu, that's about two degrees north of where Camille reached 900, so it's at least conceivable (the lowest pressure at that range in the Atlantic I can find is 930 mb in Helene 1958 but that was in the open Atlantic as the Gulf doesn't make it that far north). But 865 at 26°N seems really fishy. That would be like a storm hitting Miami with a pressure of 865 mb.

North of 35°N, records become less valuable since the deepest storms typically occur with the help of baroclinic forcing at least to some degree.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#618 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:22 am

Surigae needs to be here. What a beast. It was 40mph above what I estimated would be its peak. Mind blowing.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#619 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:56 am

aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg




Yeah Niran had a really impressive CDO. However, it’s eye and it’s inner structure is poor. Niran had a double eye wall and it’s cloud tops was likely enhanced by the typical SPAC tropopause, Niran only has an OW eye. It’s clearly a T7.0. But this is a case where a T7.0 in my opinion likely isn’t a Category 5. The reason this is because the eye was pretty ragged and cold for its intensity, I don’t buy into the theory of the SPAC having bad eyes because the top end monsters there such as Hina, Nisha, Olaf, Winston didn’t have any problems with their eyes, plus the WPac often gets just as cold convection and doesn’t have problem with eyes. Imo the tropopause of the SPAC just masks a bunch of issues that the cloud tops appear to be hiding. I actually strongly doubt Niran was a Cat 5 in reality, it’s eye was pretty bad for a T7.0 and it had shear affecting it+ double eye wall structure. Very reminiscent of Hurricane Eta, which only reached official Final Ts of 6.5-7.0 and the recon observation is actually not far off from the Dvorak. But if anything I think Niran was WEAKER than Eta. I estimate Niran at 130knots/921mb. A lot of people have called me a low baller and a downcaster for my Niran estimates but that’s just my opinion. Very deep convection and bad eye, to me that indicates it’s hiding something that is being masked by the cloud tops.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#620 Postby aspen » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:13 am

rileydoxsee98 wrote:
aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.

Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg




Yeah Niran had a really impressive CDO. However, it’s eye and it’s inner structure is poor. Niran had a double eye wall and it’s cloud tops was likely enhanced by the typical SPAC tropopause, Niran only has an OW eye. It’s clearly a T7.0. But this is a case where a T7.0 in my opinion likely isn’t a Category 5. The reason this is because the eye was pretty ragged and cold for its intensity, I don’t buy into the theory of the SPAC having bad eyes because the top end monsters there such as Hina, Nisha, Olaf, Winston didn’t have any problems with their eyes, plus the WPac often gets just as cold convection and doesn’t have problem with eyes. Imo the tropopause of the SPAC just masks a bunch of issues that the cloud tops appear to be hiding. I actually strongly doubt Niran was a Cat 5 in reality, it’s eye was pretty bad for a T7.0 and it had shear affecting it+ double eye wall structure. Very reminiscent of Hurricane Eta, which only reached official Final Ts of 6.5-7.0 and the recon observation is actually not far off from the Dvorak. But if anything I think Niran was WEAKER than Eta. I estimate Niran at 130knots/921mb. A lot of people have called me a low baller and a downcaster for my Niran estimates but that’s just my opinion. Very deep convection and bad eye, to me that indicates it’s hiding something that is being masked by the cloud tops.

Also, it wasn’t able to hold on to or improve its IR appearance for long, so if it was undergoing ERI, the winds likely did not have enough time to catch up to its structure.
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