Disturbed weather off NE Honduras coast

[northjaxpro]

There has been quite a bit of disturbed weather across the Eastern Caribbean extending out several hundred miles in conjunction with a tropical wave. What are the prospects of this area to develop down the road? It is very late in the season of course, but this is the area late in the season. I saw a GFS run extending out 10 days which showed a possibility of something trying to brew in the Western Caribbean in that time range. Is it possible this is the area that may support that idea as it moves westward?

[FireRat]

I would watch this area closely over the next several days, especially with this crazy November pattern more like early October. All the heat in Florida lately might have consequences, as in tropical storms brewing with ease this late in the year. We already got Kate, so it's certainly possible in my opinion that prospects will be better than average with this potential future caribbean system, we'll see I guess. Time will tell, and if the other models jump on board with this in the days ahead then it's a go!

these are only my thoughts and not an official forecast!

thanks for posting Northjaxpro btw

[emeraldislenc]

Good thoughts !

[Sanibel]

I think there's a small twist moving into Costa Rica.

[northjaxpro]

yes there is an interesting blob/disturbed area that has been moving north over the Western Caribbean since yesterday. A concentrated area of convection is just east off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this morning. I updated this thread to change the title and discuss what is happening in this region.

[northjaxpro]

This area is getting more interesting to me by the hour. It looks to my untrained eyes as if there is at least a mid level rotation near the coast of Hondurus or is over the coast. Also, very decent convective tops are developing all around the coast and just offshore. It appears to be drifting northwest and this area looks to move into the Gulf of Honduras later tonight.

[Sanibel]

Can't see anything at the surface.

[gatorcane]

It does look a little interesting. You can clearly see rotation in this loop where northjaxpro pointed out, no model support though:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[lrak]

It does appear to be getting its act together.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[gatorcane]

It does appear to be getting its act together.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Yeah it does but might just be all at the mid-levels. Here is how I see it:

[WeatherEmperor]

I cannot believe there is not 1 model that shows development. Maybe it will go poof later tonight?


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[gatorcane]

Yeah it's hard to believe this will develop with not one model showing it, though it is looking like it is getting better organized at least at the moment. If it's all mid-level should poof later tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have been observing this area since yesterday, and the rotation is all at the mid levels for the moment. However, convection continues to be on the increase, and if this continues into the overnight, whatever circulation at the mid-levels could get bought down to the surface. The motion is northwest, so this system should emerge over the Gulf of Honduras later tonight.

[Hurricaneman]

I could see this getting lemoned tonight or tomorrow even without model support if it maintains or organizes further and isn't this the area the GFS earlier in the week had organizing into a tropical system so while it has no model support it needs to be watched as things like this can surprise

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[northjaxpro]

Mid Level rotation to my untrained eyes at around 16.3 N 83.5W. just off the northeastern Honduras coast. Interesting mid-level rotation for sure.

[northjaxpro]

The NHC made no mention of this system tonight in the TWO. Obviously they would not based on no model support for this entity yet. However, if this area continues to persist overnight and regenerates convective bursts into tomorrow, I will state right now that more attention will begin to become warranted with regards to this entity going into the weekend. Just an observation.

[gatorcane]

I agree northjaxpro. Latest SAT imagery still shows spin just NE of the coast of Honduras moving slowly NW. Convection appears to be on the decrease though around that spin, which looks like it is probably still at the mid-levels. One thing that is worth mentioning is that shear is on the decrease over this area. If a low-level vorticity starts to show up I would think models will start latching on.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Sanibel]

Shear fired wave EPAC bound in my opinion.

[Sanibel]

Something's happening over the Gulf.

[Sanibel]

Can't believe nobody mentioned that W Caribbean wave.