Convection North of Panama
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- gatorcane
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Convection North of Panama
The global models are in general agreement of a low pressure area forming somewhere north of Panama and east of Nicaragua/Costa Rica this week. The latest ECMWF develops a cyclone in the SW Caribbean, while the GFS has shown a cyclone developing in most of its recent runs. The ECMWF and GFS suggest the area could eventually crossover into the EPAC though it looks to be a slow crossover process. Deep convection is on the increase this evening.
Latest SAT loop:
Latest SAT loop:
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Re: Convection North of Panama
18z GFS para ensembles has made a big shift from 12z which was in the EPAC back to Atlantic side.
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- cycloneye
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Posible development in SW Caribbean?
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed over much
of the southwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area
of low pressure. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible over the next few days while it moves little or drifts
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
of the southwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area
of low pressure. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible over the next few days while it moves little or drifts
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
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About time NHC mentions it though the GFS and Euro seem to suggest the EPAC
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117715&hilit=
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117715&hilit=
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- cycloneye
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Re: Convection North of Panama
I didn't see it but merged my topic with yours.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
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Latest SAT loop, pretty distinctive spin in that convection area more east:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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- northjaxpro
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Strong ridging across the ECONUS and Western Atlantic later in the period(end of week) will likely move this system into portions of Central America or possibly into the Eastern Pacific.
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- Hurricanehink
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Re: Convection North of Panama
Doesn't look as likely now.
Cloudiness and a few thunderstorms located over portions of the
southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a weak area of low
pressure. This system is likely to drift westward and move
inland over Central America during the next day or two without
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low.
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: Convection North of Panama
Like with Patricia the Pacific grabs the deepest part of the wave.
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