Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Ntxw]

He was arguing a slightly different point. If you go back to the prior post, he challenged that the western basin was "supposed to be favorable but not so much..." Re-reading what he says in the second post, I don't completely disagree with his premise. But regardless, landfalls and number of landfalls usually matter regardless of what or where they are. You're probably not going to argue with the impacts of someone who lives in Cedar Key or Tallahassee by a system that generated, what, 3 ACE? It's real life in the Western Basin and it matters (usually). Hermine 1998 didn't matter whereas Frances did. Also, at the end of the day, did Gaston or whatever 94L does really matter all that much to anyone on this side of the world if they have half the season's ACE? You could make the argument that it matters because the heat was coming out of the tropics in a way that was less destructive to the Islands, North and Latin America. But that's different.

You don't have to pick and choose either or, you are allowed to use all metrics in a discussion. We are all smart enough to know you can accept both values. As a meteorological discussion it is valid and ACE is the more valuable metric. Names and numbers can be thrown out the window if you have a land impacting storm, we all are fully aware of that. I don't agree with his assessment either it's been a dull season, quite actually one of the most productive seasons of the past few and ending the Florida hurricane drought. Gaston was probably one of the best classical hurricanes we've seen (arguable with Joaquin).

There is going to be a burst of trades in the ENSO regions to bolster the La Nada a bit. Perhaps this may set up better conditions for more action in late Sept or early Oct.

[Steve]

Yeah. I think that's the big worry for S FL, the Islands and Central America with the TCHP. I'm wondering if maybe there's an outside chance for a Juan type Hybrid since a lot of people want to throw 1985 in the mix even though it would only be somewhat of a slight analog.

[Alyono]

looking at the long range models, as well as the expected conditions due to the unfavorable large scale conditions coming into the basin, while it is unlikely, it is possible (if 94L does not develop) that September will be cyclone free in the Atlantic. of course, a high latitude storm or two will probably pop up, which is why I say it is UNLIKELY

[TimeZone]

The Atlantic has become a joke. These conditions in September are laughable.

[Alyono]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

[WeatherEmperor]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

Whic is why I agree with you more and more that its looking very much like the active cycle had ended. I am still willing to wait until next season but it really looks more and more like it


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[Hammy]

Whic is why I agree with you more and more that its looking very much like the active cycle had ended. I am still willing to wait until next season but it really looks more and more like it

Last year was El Nino, 2013 had a springtime climate last year-round due to the thermohaline circulation, and this year still has residual Nino effects. 2011 was the last year the climate was in a 'normal' state, as 2012 even had borderline Nino effects. This is being overlooked too much in regards to the active cycle.

[JPmia]

Whic is why I agree with you more and more that its looking very much like the active cycle had ended. I am still willing to wait until next season but it really looks more and more like it

Last year was El Nino, 2013 had a springtime climate last year-round due to the thermohaline circulation, and this year still has residual Nino effects. 2011 was the last year the climate was in a 'normal' state, as 2012 even had borderline Nino effects. This is being overlooked too much in regards to the active cycle.

I think you're right.. we've been under the Super El Nino and El Nino-ish conditions for a few years now. I don't think we can be sure until 2020-2025 that the active cycle is over.

[NDG]

It was hard for me to acknowledge for a while that the active Atlantic phase has definitely come to an end, 4 years in row now that the heart of the hurricane season over the Atlantic basin has been as dead as it can be. It might be 20 years if not longer before we see an active phase like we saw for 15-18 years but it only takes one to make it a bad season this year through the next few years like it happened during the late 60s-early 90s period.

[centuryv58]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

I thought it was a Cat 4. That was what was reported last year anyway.

[Yellow Evan]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

I thought it was a Cat 4. That was what was reported last year anyway.

It did, but before reaching Cat 4 status, it was a Cat 3.

[centuryv58]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

I thought it was a Cat 4. That was what was reported last year anyway.

It did, but before reaching Cat 4 status, it was a Cat 3.

Oh is that how it works! Silly me.

[SFLcane]

It was hard for me to acknowledge for a while that the active Atlantic phase has definitely come to an end, 4 years in row now that the heart of the hurricane season over the Atlantic basin has been as dead as it can be. It might be 20 years if not longer before we see an active phase like we saw for 15-18 years but it only takes one to make it a bad season this year through the next few years like it happened during the late 60s-early 90s period.

Hurts to read this...

Upper levels look more like winter not the peak of the season.

[Darvince]

no




If that was the case then there would be no convection in the tropical atlantic, there would be no invests or areas of interest, and the MDR would have shear from 50 to 100kt.

[Alyono]

Only 1 cat 3 hurricane in September in the Atlantic since 2012. That being Edouard in 2014.

Joaquin did not become a cat 3 last year until October 1

I thought it was a Cat 4. That was what was reported last year anyway.

yes, but it did not reach cat 3 until 0Z Oct 1

[Ntxw]

A lot of shear in the Atlantic today. Will have to wait until it dies down some.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS run from 06Z shows a lot of shear across much of the Western Atlantic including GOM, Caribbean, and Bahamas continuing out into the long-range (through 384 hours the run goes out to). Also seems to be suggesting a very strong cold front to move into the Eastern United States in the long-range.

[psyclone]

After a respectable showing in late August with ACE from Gaston, the slow season crowd is cashing in big time with an Atlantic that looks more like the end of season rather than peak. I'm seriously doubting my near normal ACE expectations. Even a couple of long tracker fish storms would have sufficed but that looks like too tall of an order. And I can't help but wonder if this will be another year where the western Caribbean heat potential once again goes untapped. That's been happening a lot.

[gatorcane]

it looks like we might see a pretty good MJO pulse across the Caribbean and Western Atlantic towards the end of this month. Let's see if global models start to pick up on it and if we see some development in these areas. Also as we head deeper into September and October, climatology suggests these regions would be favored for development.

[Hurricaneman]

I think the western Caribbean needs to be watched around early to mid October based on many post El Nino years had a hurricane form in that very area

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