Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Three named storms tonight for the first time since 2012.

You'd think anybody that's taken met 101 would realize it's never a good idea to bet on one or no named storms during the climatologically busiest month of the hurricane season, but I digress.

[Hammy]

Three named storms tonight for the first time since 2012.

You'd think anybody that's taken met 101 would realize it's never a good idea to bet on one or no named storms during the climatologically busiest month of the hurricane season, but I digress.

I'll add to this: We're around 45 ACE on September 15. 2014 was 39 prior to Gonzalo in mid-October; 2015 was 28 prior to Joaquin near the end of the month, and even then was only 12 higher than we are currently, and 2013 was only about 20. And that's with another possibly stronger storm down the road, and possibly 1-2 named systems before the month is out.

[psyclone]

If Karl can get its act together it has the potential to generate a respectable amount of ACE.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Sure we have had a lot of storms and they have all been weaker storms except for Gaston. ACE is below normal. Shear in the Atlantic has ripped apart almost anything that has tried to form. Dry air has been persistent up until recently. To me even with 11 storms the Atlantic has been pathetic and struggles to even produce a strong TS lately....that trend has been from 2013 to the present. The US has enjoyed a very long lucky streak in terms of major hurricane hits. So lucky in fact that scientists are struggling to figure out why that is. Just my opinion and figured since this is related to seasonal indicators it belongs in this thread.

[Hammy]

Sure we have had a lot of storms and they have all been weaker storms except for Gaston. ACE is below normal. Shear in the Atlantic has ripped apart almost anything that has tried to form. Dry air has been persistent up until recently. To me even with 11 storms the Atlantic has been pathetic and struggles to even produce a strong TS lately....that trend has been from 2013 to the present. The US has enjoyed a very long lucky streak in terms of major hurricane hits. So lucky in fact that scientists are struggling to figure out why that is. Just my opinion and figured since this is related to seasonal indicators it belongs in this thread.

There's no struggle to understand why the Atlantic has been 'struggling' lately. 2012 had quasi-Nino effects, 2013 was a reduction in the thermohaline circulation which caused the entire global pattern to remain in spring, 2014-15 were Nino years, and this year is still having Nino effects--several meteorologists pointed out even that if we didn't get a La Nina (which indeed failed to occur) we could see another 1983-type season due to lingering Nino-induced shear--and exactly that has happened, yet the Atlantic has still managed to produce near-to-above normal activity.

As far as the lack of "major" hits, far too much weight is given to that. The US is not the entire Atlantic, and there have been stronger storms elsewhere--it's simply a steering pattern change. And don't forget, 2008 had two storms that were literally 1-2mph below that--zero difference impact-wise.

[tolakram]

The other thing is that most of the indicators are near normal, regardless of what someone thinks.



The Atlantic is behaving exactly as would be expected for a normal hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

I'll touch base with ACE again. By the end of this month, average will be around 83 units. Sitting at 45 units right now (normal is about 61 units) so within striking distance. By the end of the month, the next two weeks, for normal in layman terms what has occurred the whole season so far will need to happen again to be on pace. Certainly achievable with a couple of majors. It's not an easy climb though without majors.

And I agree landfall is mostly luck and timing. It's a short term thing and difficult to predict. It's basically a dartboard. Heading into late Sept and October, especially with troughs and the jet stream slowly dipping south the area to watch for landfalls probably comes from systems able to generate in the Western Caribbean or southern gulf. This is where odds are greatest they will effect the lower 48 if they form.

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't mean a whole lot if conditions aren't favorable. Nonetheless still an interesting statistic.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/777139740118253568

[NDG]

The other thing is that most of the indicators are near normal, regardless of what someone thinks.

http://i.imgur.com/DueoaOx.png

The Atlantic is behaving exactly as would be expected for a normal hurricane season.

IMO it is not normal, higher than normal MSLPs across the entire Atlantic Basin has ruled this season, very stable atmosphere, as forecasted months ago by the ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/777545482755121152

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/777545482755121152

But that could change at the drop of a hat so I say watch October for an October surprise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

From a study I did in 2011:

"Whereas only 5% (only 3 of 57) of non-La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit, a respectable nearly 30% (8 of 28) of La Nina 10/1-15 periods had a major CONUS H hit! Another way to look at this: a whopping 8 of 11 +AMO seasons with a major 10/1-15 CONUS H hit were La Ninas. Moreover,1 of these 8 seasons, 1893, had TWO major hits during 10/1-15!"

[abajan]

Doesn't mean a whole lot if conditions aren't favorable. Nonetheless still an interesting statistic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 0118253568

Now, if we could just figure out where Florica is located.
(Never mind. Found it!)

[centuryv58]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/777545482755121152

But that could change at the drop of a hat so I say watch October for an October surprise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Of course it can change, as you stated. These guys have been surprised before.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/778670651301212161

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/778690224607993856

[psyclone]

I think of 8-20 to 9-20 as the absolute peak of cane season and while the latter third of August put forth a respectable showing September has been a bust with garbage storms. We've built an ACE deficit from which we are unlikely to recover.

[Ntxw]

Huge upper trough is going to bring down cooler continental air across central North America next week. I think that will likely begin the closing window for the western gulf for hits. The shift will gradually move eastward with time along with climo with fronts and stronger troughs. I think focus needs to shift from African waves as those become more and more likely to re-curve as the northern hemisphere is transitioning into the fall pattern. The more likely area to watch is the Caribbean particularly western Caribbean. Re-curves here hit the US if anything forms.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/778966777132744704

[LarryWx]

Huge upper trough is going to bring down cooler continental air across central North America next week. I think that will likely begin the closing window for the western gulf for hits. The shift will gradually move eastward with time along with climo with fronts and stronger troughs. I think focus needs to shift from African waves as those become more and more likely to re-curve as the northern hemisphere is transitioning into the fall pattern. The more likely area to watch is the Caribbean particularly western Caribbean. Re-curves here hit the US if anything forms.

Agreed. No TC on record that formed east of 55W after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954;

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26