2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

why is anyone surprised that the MDR is dead.

IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE DEAD THIS YEAR!!! The models are showing a season playing out LIKE IT SHOULD and LIKE THE ANALOGS SAID

Just keep an eye on that persistent trough off of the East Coast and in the northern Gulf. Something will likely develop from that

I heard many METS and experts say that waves would not develop in the MDR that is true but I also heard them say the Caribbean would be favorable and that waves would make it across the MDR into more favorable conditions. Non-tropical origin storms are not common are they?

[SFLcane]

What exactly is dead?????? MDR? Ok understood conditions aren't expected to be to favorable across the eastern Atl but typically in a "NORMAL YEAR" we don't see development way out there to begin with. We are still 20 some days from the official start of the Capeverde season for those looking out there. I for one Iam a bit concerned in a few weeks when these vigourous tw's start rolling of Africa they will struggle to develop until the reach the western Atl were conditions look ripe so be patient folks. I really wish the 2005/2004 seasons never accured some expect every year will be the same. Like clock work I expect 2nd week of August things will get going. Even normal years can be devastating.

[ninel conde]

why is anyone surprised that the MDR is dead.

IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE DEAD THIS YEAR!!! The models are showing a season playing out LIKE IT SHOULD and LIKE THE ANALOGS SAID

Just keep an eye on that persistent trough off of the East Coast and in the northern Gulf. Something will likely develop from that

I heard many METS and experts say that waves would not develop in the MDR that is true but I also heard them say the Caribbean would be favorable and that waves would make it across the MDR into more favorable conditions. Non-tropical origin storms are not common are they?

Good news is they generally dont get very strong, though as always there are exceptions. My only worry for the rest of the season would be if the newfoundland wheel locks in and a non-tropical low gets trapped under it and has enough time over the very warm sst's to become something substantial.

[gatorcane]

New ECMWF shows a MUCH weaker wave than it was showing in the 00Z run that made it into the SE Bahamas.

The model is bullish on the new area in the EPAC the NHC has lemoned.

[NDG]

:uarrow: If you think that the GFS's 384 hr forecast will come to fruition or close to it I just hope you are not betting money on it with develpment or no development on it.

Showing no development is far more likely to verify than if it had a well developed cane in a place where it could threaten land south and west of 25

I remember very well last year when August hit the GFS not showing much if any development in its long range forecast and all the sudden it starting showing development in its medium range forecast, which became Cat 3 Danny.
Another storm which was not on its long range forecast was Joaquin.
So in another words, it can go either way on its long range forecast.

[tolakram]

I remember very well last year when August hit the GFS not showing much if any development in its long range forecast and all the sudden it starting showing development in its medium range forecast, which became Cat 3 Danny.
Another storm which was not on its long range forecast was Joaquin.
So in another words, it can go either way on its long range forecast.

Yep, which is why it's important to look at the overall basin conditions and see what kind of environment is waiting for one of these to develop.

It's interesting to look at the Euro compared to the GFS and the normalized pressure anomalies. Right now we are actually below normal in pressure for the MDR but the euro is showing a wall coming off Africa and traversing the Atlantic. Note that it also shows higher than normal pressures over the EPAC at the end of the run so I'm not so sure this is accurate.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=465

The GFS shows this to some extent but we end up back at below normal pressures by the end of the run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=83

Taking individual model pictures, especially at the end of the run, and making definitive statements is bound to be inaccurate. I don't think anything will form until late August so for me the models showing unfavorable conditions is perfectly normal, but I don't believe any model past 192 hours, and THAT is a stretch.

[JaxGator]

For what it's worth, the Euro and GEM develop the wave the GFS developed and some others (GEM) on this run through 120hrs.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_6.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_18.png

[wxman57]

I heard many METS and experts say that waves would not develop in the MDR that is true but I also heard them say the Caribbean would be favorable and that waves would make it across the MDR into more favorable conditions. Non-tropical origin storms are not common are they?

Are you implying that if an African Easterly Wave doesn't develop until it reaches the Caribbean that it's non-tropical? That's certainly not the case.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I heard many METS and experts say that waves would not develop in the MDR that is true but I also heard them say the Caribbean would be favorable and that waves would make it across the MDR into more favorable conditions. Non-tropical origin storms are not common are they?

Are you implying that if an African Easterly Wave doesn't develop until it reaches the Caribbean that it's non-tropical? That's certainly not the case.

No sir not at all. Sorry if I made that sound differently. Most of what I heard preseason was that the Caribbean would be more favorable this season than previous years. Yet one of the METS on here has said only the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US coastline area would be favorable. What I am saying is if the Caribbean/Central Atlantic are not going to be favorable then waves would die out before they reached the western Atlantic like last season. Meaning most of the things that develop would have to be non-tropical and that is not common correct?

[TheStormExpert]

Extremely Long-Range 18z GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

That is 384hrs. out but I still if any troughiness then.

[tolakram]

I have removed some posts which are under review for moderation. I say this so people don't feel the need to repost. Trolling is always a difficult thing to moderate but this thread has become a stuck record with the same people saying the same thing every 12 to 24 hours and IT MUST STOP for this thread to maintain any value.

[blp]

There has to be a trough at some point or we get systems head West and get buried into C. America. The trough being the savior is an over played hand IMO. Yes it can be a savior in some cases but if the storms where forming in the Carribean or the GOM the US would be getting hit very frequently with that trough. The lack of any activity in the Carribean or the GOM has played a greater part in the drought versus the trough IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to show a low forming around 90hrs from the wave about to come off of Africa some time tomorrow. I think this wave will really need to be watched for consistency and possible development down the road

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Patrick99]

There has to be a trough at some point or we get systems head West and get buried into C. America. The trough being the savior is an over played hand IMO. Yes it can be a savior in some cases but if the storms where forming in the Carribean or the GOM the US would be getting hit very frequently with that trough. The lack of any activity in the Carribean or the GOM has played a greater part in the drought versus the trough IMO.

Yeah....sometimes the famous, vaunted "Protective East Coast Trough" allows hurricane tracks like Charley and Donna to happen.

[RL3AO]

Pretty impressive change in the past seven days. Even after central Atlantic trough moves out, the Azore's high does not build in as far south again.

[cycloneye]

Maue's take.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/757992914190499840

[gatorcane]

The past few runs of the GFS have really scaled back on EPAC development in the medium to long-range. Just maybe this is the beginning of the EPAC quieting down which may allow Atlantic to gradually get more active.

[RL3AO]

A hint of something from the Euro before it loses it. Appears to be the next wave to leave Africa.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET developing the Cape Verde wave in the Bahamas in a week (along with the CMC) and also the wave the ECMWF is developing that is about ready to exit Africa. So things are starting to light up some with the models....



UKMET likes the ECMWF wave also: