2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

Making the 2016 thread before 2015 ends as important information has been released about upgrades.

New upgrade to GFS and GEFS coming during the Spring of 2016 and it looks like it will be very good within 5 days.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
Hourly GFS output to 5 days is coming for the next implementation in Spring 2016- firehose of data!

[Hurricaneman]

The upgrade should kill a lot of the phantom storms the GFS has been putting out and might be more in line with the Euro

[gatorcane]

The upgrade should kill a lot of the phantom storms the GFS has been putting out and might be more in line with the Euro

We'll see but I believe they are making significant improvements to the ECMWF also in the next several years, I recall an article about that last year where they announced their plans. Does anybody have an update on that?

[Alyono]

At 9km resolution, the EC may be a disaster for TCs. It is too fine of resolution to parameterize convection, yet too coarse for explicit convection. The upgrade after this one may be better if they get down to 4 or 5 km resolution and can go with explicit convection

[HurricaneBelle]

Let's fix the typo in the thread title so we don't have to look at it all year.

[cycloneye]

Let's fix the typo in the thread title so we don't have to look at it all year.

Fixed.

[cycloneye]

Upgrade to the ECMWF paralell coming in March 2016.Can't post more as all the details are at WeatherBell (Paid site)

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1h1 hour ago
ECMWF parallel (HRES+EPS) meteograms for US/Canada available during eval period (March 8, 2016)

[cycloneye]

What? In early January this may be possible? ECMWF goes bonkers.

[Darvince]

Gone.

[wxman57]

Making the 2016 thread before 2015 ends as important information has been released about upgrades.

New upgrade to GFS and GEFS coming during the Spring of 2016 and it looks like it will be very good within 5 days.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 4m4 minutes ago
Hourly GFS output to 5 days is coming for the next implementation in Spring 2016- firehose of data!

http://i.imgur.com/9BISal7.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/WsSZAkC.jpg

I was thinking about how it's going to be here when the models are extended out to 3-4 weeks and then 45 days. Imagine the GFS predicting a big snow storm for Dallas in mid February (over a month out) and everyone here getting all excited abou tit until a few days before when the storm is dropped.

[cycloneye]

Folks,here comes the upgrade to ECMWF.It will be interesting to see how it performs after the upgrade with the new tools that it will have.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 11m11 minutes ago
ECMWF upgrade still on schedule for mid-March.

[Hurricanehink]

What? In early January this may be possible? ECMWF goes bonkers.

They nailed it with the precursor to Alex!

[cycloneye]

What? In early January this may be possible? ECMWF goes bonkers.

http://i.imgur.com/gLKHBk4.png

They nailed it with the precursor to Alex!

Indeed it did .Right now is IMO the best model in terms of performance.Let's see if the upcoming upgrade make it even much better.

[cycloneye]

Big upgrade to ECMWF on March 8 to consolidate it as the #1 global model.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 4m4 minutes ago

Improvement 5-day skill scores w/ECMWF upgrade coming March 8th is incredible. Gap with GFS increases by 15%

[cycloneye]

Another GFS upgrade will occur just before the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins. (May 17) Hopefully we don't have those phanthom storms appear many times and the model performs on par with ECMWF that was upgraded.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 31m31 minutes ago

New GFS on track for May 17 implementation- should help #hurricane forecasts.


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/impdoc/GFS ... al2016.pdf

[wxman57]

Folks,here comes the upgrade to ECMWF.It will be interesting to see how it performs after the upgrade with the new tools that it will have.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 11m11 minutes ago
ECMWF upgrade still on schedule for mid-March.

According to comparisons with the previous ECMWF, the upgraded ECMWF will not be any better than the older version for TC tracks and intensity. However, the higher resolution of its ensemble members will result in good improvement in there, including better intensity and track forecasts. Here's the link to the verifications:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/download/attachments/51726000/TropicalCycloneFctsPerformance41r2.pdf?version=1&modificationDate=1457623342039&api=v2

And here's the link detailing all upgrades:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2#DetailedinformationofimplementationofIFScycle41r2-Meteorologicalimpactofthenewcycle

[stormwise]

The Tropics have quite lately, GFS is modelling what looks to be quite a intensive cyclone in the Indonesia region.
Rarely see a cyclone as intense in that area they tend to spin-up further south a phantom?

[cycloneye]

Long range but GFS keeps this low showing up on every run in the past 3 days. I would wait for the ECMWF to see if it has the same low northnortheast of Puerto Rico because if not then what GFS is showing is a ghost.Hopefully,the next GFS upgrade on May 17 helps eliminate that.On the other hand,if ECMWF has it then is game on.

[crownweather]

Been monitoring this the last couple of days and in fact the European model seems to be developing a trough of low pressure in the 240 hour range near the Bahamas, so, maybe something to watch??

Euro 240 hr:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 252 hours. Euro hinting so we will watch.