2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[blp]

I would not take my eye off the SW Caribbean. The forecast for the mjo has been pushed back toward the end of the month to see the greatest upward motion but there will be plenty moisture from now until then. I keep seeing a lot of spin down there in the models. Climatology and favorable Niño pattern would tell us to stay tuned. I think the Euro will start showing something soon.

[CourierPR]

I would not take my eye off the SW Caribbean. The forecast for the mjo has been pushed back toward the end of the month to see the greatest upward motion but there will be plenty moisture from now until then. I keep seeing a lot of spin down there in the models. Climatology and favorable Niño pattern would tell us to stay tuned. I think the Euro will start showing something soon.

I agree and Joe Bastardi mentioned in his Saturday video on weatherbell.com that he thinks something may come up from down there. It appears to me the convection may be increasing in the western Caribbean.

[WeatherHoon]

I thought the MJO forecast was backed off and looks to be in the null phase?

[WPBWeather]

I thought the MJO forecast was backed off and looks to be in the null phase?

I believe it was the opposite.

[GCANE]

12Z CMC & GFS are both developing something in the Bahamas mid week.

Here is the 12Z CMC

[gatorcane]

Not good for flooded NC

[Kazmit]

I'm somewhat confident that something will form before Halloween (or on Halloween for that matter).

[jlauderdal]

I'm somewhat confident that something will form before Halloween (or on Halloween for that matter).

your best shot is that low north of PR, it heads OTS but it has a low chance

[OuterBanker]

Not good for flooded NC

I'm just hoping that this is just a very cruel joke.

[CourierPR]

You might want to take a look at the SW Caribbean tonight.

[GeneratorPower]

You might want to take a look at the SW Caribbean tonight.

Just started a thread on it

[WeatherHoon]

Curious to see if tonight's GFS and Euro run are able to detect that area of disturbed weather.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC & GFS are both developing something in the Bahamas mid week.

Here is the 12Z CMC

No fewer than 5 of the 20 18Z GEFS members hit S FL on Wednesday night with a weakish low moving NW. This low forms on Monday. Bear watch recommended.

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee mentioned a tropical low approaching N Florida on the GFS in their discussion today. They don't sound like they think it will be much more than that however.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A high pressure system will be governing our weather through mid
next week keeping the dry air in place and PoPs low. By Wednesday
evening, an upper level trough to our NW and a surface low to our SW
begin to develop. Complex dynamic interaction between the two
features is resulting in a discrepancy between models.

The GFS brings a closed surface low (tropical in nature) close to
the North Florida coast by Thursday. The proximity of the surface
low will result in an increase in moisture and PoPs by late next
week. Later, a cutoff low breaks off from the highly amplified upper
level trough and tracks NE over Georgia pushing the moisture out of
our area by saturday morning.

The European model on the other hand, has the surface low further
away from the coast. So we will not see an increase in moisture and
Pops until a the cutoff low mentioned above develops right above our
CWA with this specific solution. Wrap around moisture associated
with the low will not completely clear our area until Sunday
morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC & GFS are both developing something in the Bahamas mid week.

No fewer than 5 of the 20 18Z GEFS members hit S FL on Wednesday night with a weakish low moving NW. This low forms on Monday. Bear watch recommended.

0Z GEFS update: only 1 of 20 hits FL but keeping bear watch in for the moment. Let's see whether 0Z Euro is more bullish.

[Kingarabian]

Sorry if this was posted already but:

The Euro will be updated on November 22, 2016.

ECMWF HRES Parallel: Implementation of IFS Cycle 43r1

Description of upgrade

IFS Cycle 43r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions, including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR); in the use of observations; and in modelling.

With this cycle upgrade, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the resolution is increased from 1 degree and 42 layers to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers (ORCA025Z75). Furthermore, NEMO model version v3.4.1 with the interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented. The ocean and sea-ice components of the ENS initial conditions are provided by the new ocean analysis and reanalysis suite ORAS5, which uses the new ocean model and revised ensemble perturbation method.

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display ... Cycle+43r1

[tolakram]

Just a little aside for the global runs discussion.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/788030478947409920

[LarryWx]

Just a little aside for the global runs discussion.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/788030478947409920

The Euro is, indeed, King. If this chart were extended back to the 1990's, it would show the Euro doing better than the GFS. Over any period of note, the Euro has had a lower average 5 day error at 500 mb. However, I also want to point out the readers that the difference in accuracy, especially over the last two years, isn't so great that the Euro is going to be the closest in anywhere near all cases. If the Euro were .915 but the GFS something like only 0.750, that would be a far different story and I'd bet on the Euro over the GFS almost every time I'd be betting if I were a betting man. As it is, the gap is shrinking.

[tolakram]

The Euro is, indeed, King. If this chart were extended back to the 1990's, it would show the Euro doing better than the GFS. Over any period of note, the Euro has had a lower average 5 day error at 500 mb. However, I also want to point out the readers that the difference in accuracy, especially over the last two years, isn't so great that the Euro is going to be the closest in anywhere near all cases. If the Euro were .915 but the GFS something like only 0.750, that would be a far different story and I'd bet on the Euro over the GFS almost every time I'd be betting if I were a betting man. As it is, the gap is shrinking.

This is only one metric as well. I find it very interesting that overall both models seem to track each others skill score. If the Euro is having a hard time so is the GFS.

[WPBWeather]

The Euro is, indeed, King. If this chart were extended back to the 1990's, it would show the Euro doing better than the GFS. Over any period of note, the Euro has had a lower average 5 day error at 500 mb. However, I also want to point out the readers that the difference in accuracy, especially over the last two years, isn't so great that the Euro is going to be the closest in anywhere near all cases. If the Euro were .915 but the GFS something like only 0.750, that would be a far different story and I'd bet on the Euro over the GFS almost every time I'd be betting if I were a betting man. As it is, the gap is shrinking.

This is only one metric as well. I find it very interesting that overall both models seem to track each others skill score. If the Euro is having a hard time so is the GFS.

Didn't that Aussie model do surprisingly well with Matthew? I think Alyono the Pro Met was going to adopt it for his wx company.