2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: But model support is decreasing and development seems unlikely?

Actually, more models and indicators show something is coming. Just what...?

[AJC3]

:uarrow: But model support is decreasing and development seems unlikely?

Model support hasn't decreased one bit for some sort of baroclinic low or trough to develop. That's never been in question.

The question has been whether it can acquire any sort of tropical characteristics.

It's an incipient area of disturbed weather now. Therefore it qualifies for its own thread.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF still sticking with two storms....hmmmmmmmm....

[stormlover2013]

models are being pretty consistent

[Hammy]

ECMWF still sticking with two storms....hmmmmmmmm....

Seems the other models are as well--its seeming within the realm of possibility that the record for earliest "C" storm may be up for grabs this year.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro barely does much with the first low this weekend but develops another stronger low next Thursday that originates in the Caribbean/Bahamas and heads for the Georgia/SC border or just south of there.

[Hammy]

For what it's worth, all three of the primary models (GEM/Euro/GFS) show some sort of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean, which the GFS then takes into the southeast as a TS.

[TheStormExpert]

For what it's worth, all three of the primary models (GEM/Euro/GFS) show some sort of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean, which the GFS then takes into the southeast as a TS.

Yeah Give Florida Something is back at it with the long-range Phantom Storms.

[Hurricaneman]

Both the Euro and GFS show an increase of moisture in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic around the first week of June so it may not be out of the realm of possibility the one thing we have to watch is if it comes to fruition and that will tell if its a phantom storm or not

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[Steve]

:uarrow: Both the Euro and GFS show an increase of moisture in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic around the first week of June so it may not be out of the realm of possibility the one thing we have to watch is if it comes to fruition and that will tell if its a phantom storm or not

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Agreed. I don't think it's phantom moisture by any stretch. It's just that the pattern as it's set up could allow for genesis of 2 back to back systems. There is a massive block to the North, so I think the initial question is what happens with 91L. Does it stall out around the coast or try to meander up the coast before hooking out? Or does it just move in and rain itself out on a slow trek North? Those seem to be the major scenarios put forth by the tropical and dynamical models, but the following circulation would appear to generally follow a similar pattern with maybe a little less push from the East but probably still blocking to the north. In any event, almost all models tighten up 91L close to the coast, so it could be an intensifying system. Beyond that, it's wait til next week. FWIW, this isn't September, it's May. And I don't think it says a whole lot about the future, but it's notable.

[WPBWeather]

For what it's worth, all three of the primary models (GEM/Euro/GFS) show some sort of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean, which the GFS then takes into the southeast as a TS.

Yeah Give Florida Something is back at it with the long-range Phantom Storms.

Perhaps not. Remember, one model run of ANY model is not sufficient to make informed predictions. Only watching a trend in a series of model runs is the best approach.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS long-range continues to show a cyclone into Florida from the Western Caribbean:

[jlauderdal]

For what it's worth, all three of the primary models (GEM/Euro/GFS) show some sort of lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean, which the GFS then takes into the southeast as a TS.

Yeah Give Florida Something is back at it with the long-range Phantom Storms.

Perhaps not. Remember, one model run of ANY model is not sufficient to make informed predictions. Only watching a trend in a series of model runs is the best approach.

gfs couldnt even wait until june 1 to start pounding southern florida..usually waits until early july...another year, same old story with the gfs...

noaa issues a seasonal forecast..we should have a poll of how many times florida gets hit by the gfs...i am going with 6

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfs drops it. Go figure.....

Yeah Give Florida Something is back at it with the long-range Phantom Storms.

Perhaps not. Remember, one model run of ANY model is not sufficient to make informed predictions. Only watching a trend in a series of model runs is the best approach.

gfs couldnt even wait until june 1 to start pounding southern florida..usually waits until early july...another year, same old story with the gfs...

noaa issues a seasonal forecast..we should have a poll of how many times florida gets hit by the gfs...i am going with 6

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS is back to showing a low forming in the Western Caribbean. Timeframe is coming in and it forms next weekend, gets down to 1007mb at its deepest this run while moving north then northeast into Cuba and Bahamas.

CMC shows a cyclone but looks to develop something else out of the Western Caribbean...timeframe is sooner.

[txwatcher91]

Interesting times ahead for sure. GFS did fairly well with picking up on the general idea of a system developing around to just north of the Bahamas this weekend. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see something pop up in the Caribbean in the next 7-12 days like some of the models are hinting at.

[TheStormExpert]

With all the low pressure forecasted to be in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean somethings got to pop!

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has a 1009mb low moving NE over Florida from out of the NW Caribbean in the long-range.

[NDG]

Yeap, cmodels suggest unsettled wx staying around the Caribbean, GOM, east coast US for the next few days so perhaps more development of another system coming up.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yeap, cmodels suggest unsettled wx staying around the Caribbean, GOM, east coast US for the next few days so perhaps more development of another system coming up.

I'd say Western Caribbean, Levi Cowan even said to watch that region the first week or so of June with Trade Wind surge and Convergence.