Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Are the forecasting an additional 11 named storms for a total of 16 or are they forecasting 11 overal for the entire season??

15 overall as EARL was not included.Total is 15/6/2.

[cycloneye]

Here are the main points from the abstract:

We estimate that the remainder of 2016 will have about 5 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 11 named storms (average is 10.5), 48.5 named storm days (average is 58), 22 hurricane days (average is 21.3), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0) and 5 major hurricane days (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be very near the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2016 to be near their long-term averages for the remainder of the season. The seasonal forecast for hurricane and major hurricanes days has been increased slightly from previous outlooks, in order to be in line with the ACE prediction from our early August statistical model.

There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding this outlook. Hurricane enhancing conditions include cool neutral ENSO conditions, a slightly warmer-thannormal tropical Atlantic and relatively favorable upper-level wind conditions during July. However, the subtropical eastern Atlantic and far North Atlantic remain cooler than normal, and the tropical Atlantic atmosphere was also more stable than normal in July. These mixed signals and our early August statistical model output calling for a nearnormal season are the primary reasons for the continued prediction of a near-average Atlantic hurricane season

[chaser1]

Sounds to me like a reinforcement of the pre-season assumption that greater activity will likely be focused closer to the Lesser Antilles, Caribbean, far Western Atlantic, and potentially the Gulf. Primary distinction from last year as I see it, is the far more favorable upper air conditions south of 20N. Looking way downstream, I get the sense that October might produce one or more significant threats especially with climo favoring the W. Carib for development at that time.

[FireRat]

I think November could be big as well, especially coming off the El Nino and having analogs like 1998 & 1999. Both of those years had impressive Late Oct - Nov storms. I wonder if the season will be more active than forecast? So far we've seen the 5th storm, right around the time we did in 2012 which brought 18 storms. 2010 saw the 5th storm, also Earl, late in Aug I believe, and that season had 19 storms. Time will tell, 16 sounds very plausible already.

[Kazmit]

:uarrow: I think November could be big as well, especially coming off the El Nino and having analogs like 1998 & 1999. Both of those years had impressive Late Oct - Nov storms. I wonder if the season will be more active than forecast? So far we've seen the 5th storm, right around the time we did in 2012 which brought 18 storms. 2010 saw the 5th storm, also Earl, late in Aug I believe, and that season had 19 storms. Time will tell, 16 sounds very plausible already.

Yeah, I think the season will ramp up and be more active once a possible La Nina sets in the fall. Not only September, but October and November could be more active than normal due to this. A quiet July fooled a lot of people- the worst is yet to come.

[NDG]

So according to CSU's latest update the Atlantic will only have 4 more hurricanes through the rest of the season, very conservative IMO.
But I guess if they will be strengthening on the western basin then at the end their ACE forecast would be correct.

[weathaguyry]

Still not able to find out when NOAA will release their forecast, but based on previous years it usually comes out between August 5-August 10 (On no specific day of the the week)

[cycloneye]

TSR released their final forecast for 2016 season.Read it at first post

[TheStormExpert]

NOAA to release it's updated hurricane season forecast this Thursday.
 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/762732439794057217

[WeatherEmperor]

NOAA released its Aug 11th update. They are going with 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. They say 50% chance of near-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of above-normal hurricane season.

Source: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlan ... since-2012

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/763753175686012928

[centuryv58]

NOAA released its Aug 11th update. They are going with 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. They say 50% chance of near-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of above-normal hurricane season.

Source: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlan ... since-2012

Going to have to be a hellava fall then.

[CFLHurricane]

NOAA released its Aug 11th update. They are going with 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. They say 50% chance of near-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of above-normal hurricane season.

Source: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/atlan ... since-2012

Going to have to be a hellava fall then.

No kidding. I usually start to expect a slow season when contributors pull out "don't worry this could be like 92' with Andrew" line.

[NDG]

Why am I not surprised by CSU's conservative outlook on their updated 2 week forecast, August 18-31st.

http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 6-0818.pdf

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at belowaverage
levels (less than 70 percent of climatology). While Fiona will generate some
ACE, it is predicted to track through a fairly unfavorable environment and is not likely to
generate large amounts of ACE. The average ACE accrued during the period from 1981-
2010 for August 14-August 27 was 18 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next
two weeks is for less than 13 ACE units to be generated.
The below-average forecast is due to several factors. Fiona is not likely to
intensify beyond moderate tropical storm strength, inhibiting its ability to generate ACE.
An additional tropical wave is forecast to move off of Africa in a couple of days, but the
National Hurricane Center is only giving it a 10% chance of development in the next five
days. Most models do not significantly develop this system. The sub-seasonal
environment is still unfavorable for Atlantic TC development, as the MJO remains
stagnant in Phase 6, which favors convection over the tropical Pacific and subsidence in
the tropical Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771107975943467009

[centuryv58]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771107975943467009

About average. That's a GREAT increase over his usual tweets on the Atl

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the expert forecast the ones that were the closest were Accuweather, NOAA, NCSU, Mike Ventrice, TSR, Joe Bastardi and the one thats has it dead on so far is the UKMET office so kudos to these forecasts and may next year be just as accurate for all mets as it was this year overall