Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

The first salvo for the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is from CSU but this first discussion by them is in general terms about the different factors that could guide the season to be active or not such as ENSO and the AMO.No numbers in this first one.

CSU --- First discussion of factors for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season --- December 10 --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ec2015.pdf

April 14 --- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/For ... pr2016.pdf --- 13/6/2

June 1 --- http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2016.pdf --- 12/5/2 not including Alex and Bonnie

July 1 --- http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/For ... ul2016.pdf --- 15/6/2 including the four already in the books

August 4 --- http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 016-08.pdf Rest of season,11/5/2 near normal

November 30 --- http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 016-11.pdf Verification of 2016 forecast

Crown Weather Services --- Febuary 20 Discussion --- http://crownweather.com/index.php/the-2 ... -forecast/

March 11 Discussion --- http://crownweather.com/index.php/2016- ... test-risk/

April 6 --- http://crownweather.com/index.php/discu ... -forecast/ --- 11/7/2 ACE: 90


May 14 --- http://crownweather.com/index.php/discu ... -forecast/ --- 11/8/3 ACE: 110

Joe Bastardi --- April forecast --- 11-14 Storms - 6-8 Hurricanes - 2-5 Majors - ACE 105-135

TSR --- April forecast --- http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... pr2016.pdf --- 12/6/2

May forecast --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... on2016.pdf --- 17/9/4

July forecast --- http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf --- 16/8/3

August forecast --- http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ug2016.pdf --- 15/7/3

AccuWeather --- April forecast --- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 6/56491288 --- 14/8/4

The Weather Channel (TWC) --- April forecast --- https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... JE_42216_1 --- 14/8/3

June forecast --- https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... JB_60116_2 --- 14/8/3 including Alex and Bonnie.

Julty forecast --- https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... LL_70116_2 --- 15/9/4

Dr Michael Ventrice --- http://business.weather.com/blog/the-20 ... ne-outlook --- 14/8/3

UKMET --- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... lantic2016 --- 14 named storms/8 hurricanes

Levi Cowen --- 2016 outlook --- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... n-outlook/

Jim Williams --- http://hurricanecity.com/blogs/2016/05/ ... -for-2016/ --- 14-16 named storms

Weatherbell --- May forecast --- 11-14 - 6-8 - 2-4 --- ACE 105-135

NOAA May Forecast --- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml --- - 10-16 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January
- 4-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January
- 1-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January

NOAA August forecast --- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml -- 12-17 named storms

[cycloneye]

Ouch. If this prevails thru next Summer,MDR will be dead even without El Nino by then as Klotzbach says.

[gatorcane]

Yeah but we have a long way to go on the Atlantic SSTs between now and MDR season.

[Hammy]

Looks like best chance is for an above average season next year, but confidence seems pertty low at this point given the relatively close percentages.

[OuterBanker]

As we await the release from Colorado University and Joe Bastardi there are some that have already released their outlook. Not really sure who Weather Trends 360 is but is seems to be professionally produced. At any rate it should stir some interesting conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8

[cycloneye]

As we await the release from Colorado University and Joe Bastardi there are some that have already released their outlook. Not really sure who Weather Trends 360 is but is seems to be professionally produced. At any rate it should stir some interesting conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8

Hi my friend. I merged your topic with this one that has all the forecasts from the experts.It was way down as there were no replies since December.

[WeatherEmperor]

Do we have a specific date when CSU will issue their April forecast?

[SFLcane]

Do we have a specific date when CSU will issue their April forecast?

April 5

[cycloneye]

Do we have a specific date when CSU will issue their April forecast?

April 14. Here is the paragraph from the December outlook.

We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Thursday April 14, Wednesday 1 June, Friday 1 July, and Wednesday 3 August. We will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the climatological peak of the season from August-October. A verification and discussion of all 2016 forecasts will be issued in late November 2016

[Alyono]

Have to disagree with WT360 in the strongest of terms.

No wind shear at all during 2016? Have they seen the ECMWF rainfall anomaly forecast? If that is right, just basic Walker Circulation knowledge would lead one to understand that at the very least, the Caribbean would be blasted by strong shear.

Furthermore, they have ignored the cool neutral and la niña years that were unfavorable due to warmer than average tropical Pacific waters north of the equator. They have not considered all variables and have instead used soundbites to formulate a forecast.

The one part I do agree with is the greater risk to the Gulf coast. Nearly all analogs have major impacts to the Gulf this year

[WPBWeather]

I hope Alonyo is correct, but he/she is always conservative. CSU is really already out as it is Phil K and he is already on record elsewhere, the NHC most recently in órlando.

[CrazyC83]

The Caribbean Sea is dealing with a bigger hurricane drought than the US.

The last Central American hurricane landfall was Ida in 2009, and the last hurricane of any kind in the region was Sandy in 2012 (which didn't really take off until it reached Jamaica and Cuba). Remember in 2004-05 there were six major hurricanes in the region, four of which were either strong Cat 4's or Cat 5's: Charley (Cat 3 in the region), Ivan (Cat 5), Dennis (Cat 4), Emily (Cat 5), Wilma (Cat 5) and Beta (Cat 3).

[WeatherEmperor]

About the Ecmwf rainfall forecast... does this also mean increased shear over the Atlantic or are we talking about the Carribean only??

Have to disagree with WT360 in the strongest of terms.

No wind shear at all during 2016? Have they seen the ECMWF rainfall anomaly forecast? If that is right, just basic Walker Circulation knowledge would lead one to understand that at the very least, the Caribbean would be blasted by strong shear.

Furthermore, they have ignored the cool neutral and la niña years that were unfavorable due to warmer than average tropical Pacific waters north of the equator. They have not considered all variables and have instead used soundbites to formulate a forecast.

The one part I do agree with is the greater risk to the Gulf coast. Nearly all analogs have major impacts to the Gulf this year

[TheStormExpert]

I hope Alonyo is correct, but he/she is always conservative. CSU is really already out as it is Phil K and he is already on record elsewhere, the NHC most recently in órlando.

What are CSU's thoughts and predictions? Or is it too early to know?

[wxman57]

I hope Alonyo is correct, but he/she is always conservative. CSU is really already out as it is Phil K and he is already on record elsewhere, the NHC most recently in órlando.

What are CSU's thoughts and predictions? Or is it too early to know?

You'll have to wait until April 14th to find out what Phil thinks. We've been emailing back & forth. I think there's more uncertainty this season than in many others. Lots of conflicting signals.

[WPBWeather]

You can start here:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

[TheStormExpert]

I hope Alonyo is correct, but he/she is always conservative. CSU is really already out as it is Phil K and he is already on record elsewhere, the NHC most recently in órlando.

What are CSU's thoughts and predictions? Or is it too early to know?

You'll have to wait until April 14th to find out what Phil thinks. We've been emailing back & forth. I think there's more uncertainty this season than in many others. Lots of conflicting signals.

Yeah, seems like this season may be the hardest season to forecast since 2013 by the looks of it.

[Macrocane]

I hope Alonyo is correct, but he/she is always conservative. CSU is really already out as it is Phil K and he is already on record elsewhere, the NHC most recently in órlando.

I hope is not, we have had 2 consecutive years of strong drought in Central America (4 years in El Salvador actually) we don't need strong shear in the Caribbean again.

[Alyono]

About the Ecmwf rainfall forecast... does this also mean increased shear over the Atlantic or are we talking about the Carribean only??

Have to disagree with WT360 in the strongest of terms.

No wind shear at all during 2016? Have they seen the ECMWF rainfall anomaly forecast? If that is right, just basic Walker Circulation knowledge would lead one to understand that at the very least, the Caribbean would be blasted by strong shear.

Furthermore, they have ignored the cool neutral and la niña years that were unfavorable due to warmer than average tropical Pacific waters north of the equator. They have not considered all variables and have instead used soundbites to formulate a forecast.

The one part I do agree with is the greater risk to the Gulf coast. Nearly all analogs have major impacts to the Gulf this year

I would think tropical Atlantic as well as the rainfall anomaly is east of where it was concentrated last year

[OuterBanker]

I take the WT 360 outlook with a grain of salt. Looks like they are just using the positives and no negatives. Overly dramatic I suspect to get you to pay for thier services (quite pricey I might add). I'm waiting for CSU before I decide which way to go. I do think that we will see La Nina conditions maybe as early as June. Certainly by August. I am concerned about the Gulf vunerability due to the recent flooding issues.