Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

April forecast from CSU is up at first post

[cycloneye]

Interesting range of activity of CSU analog years from below average to above average seasons.

1941
1973
1983
1992
1998
2003

[Steve]

Yeah that 98 year was crazy. We got a few brush-byes with Georges hitting the MGC, Hermine(sp?) hitting us but with displaced weather. And Frances was memorable for the insane rainfall we got here while it spun off the South TX Coast. 2003 was a direct hit from TS Bill. 1992 was Andrew in Homestead and then over in Morgan City with high end TS conditions here. A little scary. CSU went almost straight average. I think that's the right call for a season where analogs are mixed. Some of the other pros also have mixed years. Smoothing it out to 12/6/2 or whatever seems like what you would expect from CSU. Landfall probabilities for the USEC and GC are like a percent off but still show decent landfall possibilities. Idk.

[SFLcane]

NCState researchers predict an active 2016 https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

[tarheelprogrammer]

NCState researchers predict an active 2016 https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

Beat me to it and yeah they seem to believe it will be even more active than I predicted. How accurate have they been in the past?

[TheStormExpert]

NCState researchers predict an active 2016 https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricane, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

They might be pushing it with their predictions in my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

NCState researchers predict an active 2016 https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

Beat me to it and yeah they seem to believe it will be even more active than I predicted. How accurate have they been in the past?

Here's NC States predictions for the past three season for what it's worth.

2013
Named Storms: 13-17 (Actual: 14)
Hurricanes: 7-10 (Actual: 2)
Major Hurricanes: 3-6 (Actual: 0)

2014
Named Storms: 8-11 (Actual: 8)
Hurricanes: 4-6 (Actual: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 2)

2015
Named Storms: 4-6 (Actual: 11)
Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 4)
Major Hurricanes: 0-1 (Actual: 2)

[tarheelprogrammer]

NCState researchers predict an active 2016 https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

Beat me to it and yeah they seem to believe it will be even more active than I predicted. How accurate have they been in the past?

Here's NC States predictions for the past three season for what it's worth.

2013
Named Storms: 13-17 (Actual: 14)
Hurricanes: 7-10 (Actual: 2)
Major Hurricanes: 3-6 (Actual: 0)

2014
Named Storms: 8-11 (Actual: 8)
Hurricanes: 4-6 (Actual: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 2)

2015
Named Storms: 4-6 (Actual: 11)
Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 4)
Major Hurricanes: 0-1 (Actual: 2)

So, somewhat accurate excluding 2013.

[cycloneye]

TWC forecast is up at first post.

[cycloneye]

Dr Michael Ventrice released his forecast and is up at first post of thread.He has 14/8/3.

[OuterBanker]

Cycloneye, isn't Dr Ventrice with the weather company. Which is the same as the Weather Channel. IBM purchased the Weather Channel this year if I remember correctly.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, isn't Dr Ventrice with the weather company. Which is the same as the Weather Channel. IBM purchased the Weather Channel this year if I remember correctly.

That is his blog not from TWC although are the same numbers.

[Alyono]

The Weather Channel was not sold. It's digital rights were sold. Comcast and Blackstone still own TWC

[OuterBanker]

I forgot that Alyno. NBC Universal bought the Weather Channel and NBC Universal is owned by Comcast. Btw, what is meant by "digital rights". Finally, I think IBM is a smaller company then Comcast.

[Darvince]

Here's NC States predictions for the past three season for what it's worth.

2013
Named Storms: 13-17 (Actual: 14)
Hurricanes: 7-10 (Actual: 2)
Major Hurricanes: 3-6 (Actual: 0)

2014
Named Storms: 8-11 (Actual: 8)
Hurricanes: 4-6 (Actual: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 2)

2015
Named Storms: 4-6 (Actual: 11)
Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 4)
Major Hurricanes: 0-1 (Actual: 2)

So, somewhat accurate excluding 2013.

Don't you mean 2015?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here's NC States predictions for the past three season for what it's worth.

2013
Named Storms: 13-17 (Actual: 14)
Hurricanes: 7-10 (Actual: 2)
Major Hurricanes: 3-6 (Actual: 0)

2014
Named Storms: 8-11 (Actual: 8)
Hurricanes: 4-6 (Actual: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 2)

2015
Named Storms: 4-6 (Actual: 11)
Hurricanes: 1-3 (Actual: 4)
Major Hurricanes: 0-1 (Actual: 2)

So, somewhat accurate excluding 2013.

Don't you mean 2015?

lol also 2015 I was tired that day

[drezee]

Interesting range of activity of CSU analog years from below average to above average seasons.

1941
1973
1983
1992
1998
2003

Looks like the last 5 of 6 analogs had at least two hurricane hits with 25 miles of US coastline...one hit just S of Brownsville...Andrew double hit in 92

[WPBWeather]

There is a research group (Coastal Carolina) that put out a report last week predicting East coast hits will be down in the future. Much as I would like to believe them, I see more reports, even as recent as Sunday am, that seem to indicate increasing likelihood of East coast hits. Very confusing at the moment

[tropicwatch]

When will the NHC give any forecast guidance?

[Steve]

Bastardi (on Weatherbell), in his daily summary takes a look at the tropical map put out by Tropical Tidbits and notes the similarities. He also hints the humidity/moisture at 400mb pre-season often indicates where storms may intensify or at least have some of the tools to work with later in the season. His 50% of the entire season's ACE being all in the in the Western Caribbean, central Gulf of Mexico and into the Northern Gulf Coast between SE Texas and Apalachicola (representing somewhere between 50-65 units of ACE) is disquieting.