Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WPBWeather]

If you look at Phil K twitter posts you can see how CSU has been leaning for some time now. He has been promoting ice melt, etc., as slowing TC development in the ATL. He has also pointed out a cold spot in the MDR that might slow things down too. The corrected CFS has reduced the cold spot a lot and I am not sure about how ice melt might affect TC formation. Anyway, my suspicion is that he had a lower number of storms before the CFS corrected, but will increase it marginally now that the cold spot has diminished.

[crownweather]

I posted some thoughts on the upcoming 2016 Hurricane Season in two posts.

The first post was written on February 20th and can be read at http://crownweather.com/index.php/the-2016-atlantic-hurricane-season-conflicting-signals-in-the-data-is-making-for-a-very-difficult-complicated-seasonal-forecast/.

The second post was written on March 11th and can be read at http://crownweather.com/index.php/2016-atlantic-hurricane-season-more-thoughts-regarding-how-active-it-may-be-which-areas-may-be-at-greatest-risk/.

Bottom line is that this looks to be one of most difficult seasonal forecasts in recent years and I see credible evidence to support both ideas of a very inactive season and a active season. Preliminary thought is for 11 Named Storms total (that includes Alex), 7 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes and a ACE of 90.

[CrazyC83]

For the upcoming poll, do the numbers we provide include or exclude Alex?

[cycloneye]

For the upcoming poll, do the numbers we provide include or exclude Alex?

Alex will be included.

[OuterBanker]

I am wondering just what will happen to the long term CFS2 modeling now that the CFS has corrected the error of the bogus cool pool of water that ran from Africa to the MDR. It was a correction that had to be made because no other model had the cooler water and hard data proved that it simply wasn't there. I'm hoping the mets here will clarify how much the correction will affect past and future forecasts. Will it have little effect or will it wind up being another monkey wrench in predicting this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

I posted some thoughts on the upcoming 2016 Hurricane Season in two posts.

The first post was written on February 20th and can be read at http://crownweather.com/index.php/the-2016-atlantic-hurricane-season-conflicting-signals-in-the-data-is-making-for-a-very-difficult-complicated-seasonal-forecast/.

The second post was written on March 11th and can be read at http://crownweather.com/index.php/2016-atlantic-hurricane-season-more-thoughts-regarding-how-active-it-may-be-which-areas-may-be-at-greatest-risk/.

Bottom line is that this looks to be one of most difficult seasonal forecasts in recent years and I see credible evidence to support both ideas of a very inactive season and a active season. Preliminary thought is for 11 Named Storms total (that includes Alex), 7 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes and a ACE of 90.

Added to the list at first post of thread.Great discussions.

[tolakram]

Bastardi / Weatherbell

11-14 Storms
6-8 Hurricanes
2-5 Majors

ACE 105-135

Central Gulf coast 50% of total ACE (red zone), remaining gulf and east coast yellow, including the Caribbean.

edit: Central not really correct. Florida panhandle to what looks like the Houston area. Red area extends down to western Cuba and Jamaica, then over the encompass the Yucatan, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras.

[cycloneye]

JB added to the list at first post of thread.

[Steve]

I think the numbers look good in Joe B's forecast though maybe the ACE is a little high. I want to wait until May, but I'm thinking the lower end of his ranges in each category except possibly named storms. He's going straight average with his ACE forecast (which I think is around 110). I'm not a client, so I haven't seen it. Was it 50% of the landfalling ACE for the Northern Gulf or 50% of total ACE? Because if it's 50% of total, there are only 3 possibilities: 1) a bunch of close-in landfalling TS's and low end H's, 2) one really big hit, 3) some combination of 1 and 2.

I'll never forget in 2005 for his August update when he was discussing that his boss at the time (Accuweather) would never allow him to give his total ACE based on his research because it was too hyped and off the charts (apparently even for Joe). I think that year's ACE ended up being mid 200's, but obviously the Atlantic was hurricane lighter fluid, and we ended up having many majors and some really big (in circumference) systems. If his intensity zones hit based on what was described, there would be something migrating into the Gulf from in and around Cuba (why Jamaica and Cuba would be red and possibly Yucatan).

I'll be interested to see what his analog years are. If he's incorporating 1983 based on water temperature profiles or even the negative of 1983, Alicia would have had some ACE to go along with it in such an otherwise quiet year (she was from non-tropical origins I think). And if so, that might be one of the reasons why his target zone is extended that far westward. Just based on the orientation of troughs this winter and spring, I'd have it mostly around the coast of Florida maybe as far west as the MS/LA border area or Hancock County, MS/St. Tammany Parish, LA line. I'm not ready to commit to an East of Here year yet, but it sort of looks more that way to me this year than here or west of here.

I did see today that the March AMO index was the coldest in a very long time if not the coldest in the sample period. He is wondering aloud on Twitter if that ends up being a red herring as the Azores High gests "crushed" leading to not really -AMO outcomes.

It's always good to hear from Joe, and I'm certainly looking forward to his public release. That will partially go into whatever I end up coming up with. Thanks for the information.

[cycloneye]

TSR April forecast is up at first post

[crownweather]

We just released our "official" forecast for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a wealth of maps and graphics. The link is http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2016-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/.

11 Total Named Storms (Includes Alex), 7 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. ACE: 90.

Cycloneeye - Please update the link to our forecast with numbers at the first post.

[cycloneye]

We just released our "official" forecast for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a wealth of maps and graphics. The link is http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2016-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/.

11 Total Named Storms (Includes Alex), 7 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. ACE: 90.

Cycloneeye - Please update the link to our forecast with numbers at the first post.

Added.

[cycloneye]

Accuweather forecast is up and you can read it at first post of thread

They have 14/8/4.

[cycloneye]

All eyes will turn to the CSU April qualitative forecast of April 14.

[WPBWeather]

I don't think Phil K will offer any surprises. Always very conservative on the ATL and it's ACE.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think Phil K will offer any surprises. Always very conservative on the ATL and it's ACE.

I have to agree with you on that. I'll probably see him tomorrow and be there Thursday when he gives their April report at the National Tropical Weather Conference. Looking forward to seeing him again. We don't cross paths except at conferences. Really a down to earth person and to say the least smarter than the day is long!!

[cycloneye]

Is there a link to the National Conference so we can see and hear when Dr Phil Klotzbach announces the forecast?

[WPBWeather]

I don't think Phil K will offer any surprises. Always very conservative on the ATL and it's ACE.

I have to agree with you on that. I'll probably see him tomorrow and be there Thursday when he gives their April report at the National Tropical Weather Conference. Looking forward to seeing him again. We don't cross paths except at conferences. Really a down to earth person and to say the least smarter than the day is long!!

You be the man here, so no arguments from me!

[wxman57]

In 2 minutes, Phil Klotzbach will be presenting his outlook for the season live at the National Tropical Weather Conference. They're streaming the forecast on their Facebook channel. I think I know his numbers, as we've been discussing the outlook in email exchanges - unless he changed his numbers since last week...

[wxman57]

No, no changes from last week. He's going for an additional 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 majors. Season total 13/6/2 counting Alex.