2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

90W THREAD

Designated now as an invest...

[dexterlabio]

What's weird about the previous long-range GFS model runs is the group of disturbance coming out of SE China, racing eastwards and seemingly becoming TC's.

[euro6208]

What's weird about the previous long-range GFS model runs is the group of disturbance coming out of SE China, racing eastwards and seemingly becoming TC's.

Or maybe more subtropical like systems?

[euro6208]

What's weird about the previous long-range GFS model runs is the group of disturbance coming out of SE China, racing eastwards and seemingly becoming TC's.

GFS is the only one showing this for quite some time. It has been on and off in showing either a typhoon or just a weak TS emanating from a strong disturbance in the Gulf of Tonkin racing eastward towards Taiwan.

[euro6208]

Season up to date

Last year we already had 7 Tropical Cyclone including 4 Major Typhoons and 3 of them Category 5's...

[Extratropical94]

http://i.imgur.com/JjmItNg.gif

Season up to date

Last year we already had 7 Tropical Cyclone including 4 Major Typhoons and 3 of them Category 5's...

Every basin needs to take a break once in a while, I guess.

[euro6208]

Now here's something to gasp...

1998 still with the record for latest first named storm and last season to be this quiet so far.

[cycloneye]

As we know,the 2016 West Pacific Typhoon season has been very quiet with only a weak Tropical Depression forming but no named storms yet.The stats speak for themselves as the quiet period continues to extend.Is 176 days and counting as of 6/7/16 and as the July 8 date as the latest named storm formation date approaches.Is noticeable that years after strong El Nino's trend to be less active like 1982-1983 and 19971998 very strong events like the one the 2015-2016 one was.

Philip Klotzbach
The Northwest Pacific TC drought has now reached 176 days - 5th longest on record (since 1950) - longest is 198 days

[dexterlabio]

Like I've always said, this quietness may linger for more days in the WPAC. In terms of TC activity, it may be the ATL's (or EPAC?) turn to get heated up this year. Those WPAC watchers who like to watch interesting systems may come by in September or October.

[mrbagyo]

WPAC's basically on "tanking" mode right now - storing all the energy for the last quarter of the year

[euro6208]

WPAC's basically on "tanking" mode right now - storing all the energy for the last quarter of the year

I hate to say it but when those monsters start coming, it's gonna be mayhem.

[euro6208]

Here's another look. Basin warming up bigtime in SST and Anomalies. 29 to 30C spreading and almost reaching 31C.

May 10




June 7

[euro6208]

At this date last year, ACE already at 109.1675.

This year 0 although normal Year to date is 31 so WPAC can still catch up.

[cycloneye]

Great news as JMA will fly planes in WPAC starting on 2017.Those will be like the Gulfstream jet that flies at high altitude.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20160611_19/

[1900hurricane]

Well, I'll be darned, this is some amazing news! I'll be interesting to see how JMA will determine when to send out recon, but this would be a game changer in the basin.

[euro6208]

Well, I'll be darned, this is some amazing news! I'll be interesting to see how JMA will determine when to send out recon, but this would be a game changer in the basin.

Wow...Now we'll know how strong those Cat 5's are if they do penetrate the eye and sample the winds or maybe it's just to sample the steering currents? Still great news!

[RL3AO]

Well, I'll be darned, this is some amazing news! I'll be interesting to see how JMA will determine when to send out recon, but this would be a game changer in the basin.

Wow...Now we'll know how strong those Cat 5's are if they do penetrate the eye and sample the winds or maybe it's just to sample the steering currents? Still great news!

I believe its going to be more around the storm instead of into the storm.

[euro6208]

We are now the 4th longest +34 knots TC-less streak on record since 1950 at 182 days.

Models keep the basin quiet till possibly the end of the month.

[wxman57]

Heard a bit of news today regarding recon missions for the West Pac starting next season. The plan is that a team from 3 universities in Japan will begin the recon missions in 2017 and continue at least through 2020. See the news article below.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft

[euro6208]

Although waters are very warm and shear is somewhat near normal, anomalous sinking motion and very dry conditions has dominated over the past 2 months.

Also Atmospheric moisture is largely confined to the lower several 1000 feet of atm when deep moisture is needed. Also, persistent west winds along equator are needed to help spin up and sustain a circulation. Upper-level winds have tended to be more unfavorable for sustainment of convection.