2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Guys, where have you been getting the JTWC warnings? The site is down for me since 2 days ago.

The NRL site is always a good bet - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Or if you have HurricanePro app on your smart phone you can access them there too. The JTWC site has been down for me to, utterly ridiculous...

Finally the JTWC site is back to normal...

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC

[euro6208]

The EURO still developing 2 more TC's near 20N including another possible typhoon east of the Marianas...



GFS 5 more...

[euro6208]

Suppressed activity as the MJO weakens...

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS continues the active cycle of TC's beginning the first day of September...

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS develops a few more TC's and continues the barrage of Typhoons slamming Japan...

NAVGEM and CMC has 3 more...

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Aside from the currently active Lionrock, I'm not seeing much to get excited about in the short term. In the week plus timeframe, some guidance is trying to track Madeline into the basin, but that's not really something I'd put a ton of stock in at this point. Other than that, maybe a weak system nearish Taiwan this week, maybe not?

[euro6208]

Aside from the currently active Lionrock, I'm not seeing much to get excited about in the short term. In the week plus timeframe, some guidance is trying to track Madeline into the basin, but that's not really something I'd put a ton of stock in at this point. Other than that, maybe a weak system nearish Taiwan this week, maybe not?

When do you see the next active cycle of cyclones?

[Darvince]

I'd say mid-September

[euro6208]

Only 1 system to develop but looks like another typhoon will swipe Japan as shown in 3 consecutive runs now...

Namtheun...

[1900hurricane]

Aside from the currently active Lionrock, I'm not seeing much to get excited about in the short term. In the week plus timeframe, some guidance is trying to track Madeline into the basin, but that's not really something I'd put a ton of stock in at this point. Other than that, maybe a weak system nearish Taiwan this week, maybe not?

When do you see the next active cycle of cyclones?

The upward pulse of Madden-Julian may not come back around in any fashion until October. As far as basic numbers go (ACE/PDI/TS Days/TY Days), September is peak season, so we'll see storms develop during the month, but things might be a little more favorable in October.

[euro6208]

GFS has 4 more TC's...

[1900hurricane]

The GFS has been struggling with tropical cyclogenesis from the monsoon trough setup beyond five days out all year. I'd take its solution with a grain of salt.

[euro6208]

EURO still insisting on developing Namtheun around the vicinity of Okinawa and takes it northeast and affecting Tokyo as it strengthens.



Also over the Philippine Sea looks ominous...Malou?

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I'm still not sure how thorough JMA's recon is supposed to be, but I'm betting they wish they could implement it this year instead of next.

[1900hurricane]

The vort max just off the east coast of southern Taiwan (ex-96W?) may end up being the nucleus for our next system. Like Namtheun before it, it looks like it could move towards a Japan impact.

[euro6208]

The models except CMC sees a pretty dead month....

[1900hurricane]

That makes sense considering an upward pulse of Madden-Julian may be about to amplify in the Western Hemisphere, resulting in subsidence over the Tropical Western Pacific. I see maybe something weak developing in the South China Sea in the next ten days or so with some guidance trying to pick up a storm there, but that might be it until the later third of September.

[euro6208]

That makes sense considering an upward pulse of Madden-Julian may be about to amplify in the Western Hemisphere, resulting in subsidence over the Tropical Western Pacific. I see maybe something weak developing in the South China Sea in the next ten days or so with some guidance trying to pick up a storm there, but that might be it until the later third of September.

Indeed...

EURO has Meranti striking Vietnam...