2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

NWS Guam mentions this in their daily discussion with alot of uncertainty.

GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC models continue to show the development of a strong
circulation towards the end of the second half of the weak. The circulation
will pass south of the Marianas late Friday and part of the weekend.
It is still not certain the affect it will have on the local area. The
latest GFS shows the circulation passing further south than earlier
GFS predictions. CMC keeps the circulation weak until it passes into
the Philippine sea. NAVGEM shows the circulation passing south of
Guam Friday night. The mention of all these models is to
illustrate the uncertainty that exist. Any possible affects have
not been added to the forecast as it is not certain at this time
that anything will develop. If it does develop it may travel too
far south to give any significant rainfall to the local area. The
best that can be said at this time is that winds should be
elevated this coming weekend as whatever develops will deepen the
pressure gradient which will increase the winds over the Marianas.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF showing a west runner... again

[euro6208]

Just like that. GFS drops it and brings it's remnants over Guam. We'll see if it can come back.

NAVGEM isn't as bullish too as past runs.

[euro6208]

EURO also dropped this system.

However, both EURO and GFS are agreeing on something developing on either side of the Philippines second week of next month.

[dexterlabio]

Was really skeptical of the 900mb GFS typhoon shown last week. It's hard to develop really intense late season TC's in the WPAC during a La Nina episode.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Was really skeptical of the 900mb GFS typhoon shown last week. It's hard to develop really intense late season TC's in the WPAC during a La Nina episode.

there's no La Niña. The EPAC was still on its 3-year (or more) streak of above-average activity. PDO is positive and anomalies are not even below -0.5°C.

As for development, it's still unlikely for a monster to develop this time of year.

[euro6208]

Still plenty of time left.

Past 2 years alone in December saw a Cat 5 and a 4 and both plowed into Samar Philippines as a weakening Cat 3 but unfortunately the 4 at peak intensity.

[dexterlabio]

there's no La Niña. The EPAC was still on its 3-year (or more) streak of above-average activity. PDO is positive and anomalies are not even below -0.5°C.

As for development, it's still unlikely for a monster to develop this time of year.

Well, CPC calls it. And even if there is no official La Nina yet, there have been Nina-like trades present in the basin for some weeks now. An intense December typhoon would be more believable in at least weak El Nino year (Nida, Hagupit, Melor).

[euro6208]

NAVGEM, CMC, GFS, and EURO all showing to develop.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

The year is not quite over, but with development looking somewhat unlikely for at least the current forecast period, here are the preliminary numbers I've calculated for the season.

[euro6208]

INVEST 90W

Indeed. Another invest and models are quite in disarray.

[euro6208]

What a season.

EURO and GFS has a TC just off the east coast of Southern Vietnam around the 16th and 17th.

[1900hurricane]

The GFS has been on an island developing a system (and an intense one at that) out of the near equatorial monsoon trough a ways to the south of the Marianas over the coming week, but the 12Z run appears to have dropped the system, caving to all other members of guidance. I highly doubt we'll see development.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The GFS has been on an island developing a system (and an intense one at that) out of the near equatorial monsoon trough a ways to the south of the Marianas over the coming week, but the 12Z run appears to have dropped the system, caving to all other members of guidance. I highly doubt we'll see development.

12Z run shows it pass through the Philippines as a typhoon

[1900hurricane]

The GFS has been on an island developing a system (and an intense one at that) out of the near equatorial monsoon trough a ways to the south of the Marianas over the coming week, but the 12Z run appears to have dropped the system, caving to all other members of guidance. I highly doubt we'll see development.

12Z run shows it pass through the Philippines as a typhoon

It appears development of that system is from a different disturbance, perhaps associated with current 90W? I'm not feeling high on that one either.

[dexterlabio]

Fewer GFS ensemble members are showing something to develop in the Western Pacific. GFS has been showing an intense typhoon for the past two weeks after Tokage, but it has also consistently backed off with that scenario as the days passed by. I just don't know what is happening with this model. For now I'll be leaning on the ECMWF solution.

[euro6208]

The GFS has been on an island developing a system (and an intense one at that) out of the near equatorial monsoon trough a ways to the south of the Marianas over the coming week, but the 12Z run appears to have dropped the system, caving to all other members of guidance. I highly doubt we'll see development.

12Z run shows it pass through the Philippines as a typhoon

It appears development of that system is from a different disturbance, perhaps associated with current 90W? I'm not feeling high on that one either.

Yeah looks like it's another system. 18Z GFS is much much weaker. Barely a TC now.

[euro6208]

EURO still optimistic on the SCS system. Weakens it as it travels to the coast. GFS only peaks this at 1002mb.

[euro6208]

During Week-1, there is a high potential for new tropical cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal at the start of the period. Tropical cyclone formation is also possible over the West Pacific at an unusually low latitude and, if a storm forms, a northward track is likely. The GEFS and ECMWF are not in good agreement here, with the former consistently forecasting TC development over the coming days. During Week-2, tropical cyclogenesis is possible over the South China Sea and northwest of Australia. Both of these areas are indicated by the GEFS with some support from the ECMWF.