2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Latest EURO showing another storm developing in the SCS after it crosses the Philippines.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What in the world in the CMC/GEM predicting?? (Nov 21)

[euro6208]

EURO now showing 2 TC's developing in the SCS.

[euro6208]

GFS showing another system to develop but at very long range. Hits Northern Mindanao and quite intense into Palawan.

[euro6208]

EURO now showing 2 TC's developing in the SCS.

Dropped.

[euro6208]

GFS showing another system to develop but at very long range. Hits Northern Mindanao and quite intense into Palawan.

Past couple of runs more north now has something eyeing Tacloban. Although weak, it's forecast to move into the South China Sea and 00Z peaks it at 962mb then rapidly weakens offshore Hainan.

[euro6208]

GFS showing another system to develop but at very long range. Hits Northern Mindanao and quite intense into Palawan.

Past couple of runs more north now has something eyeing Tacloban. Although weak, it's forecast to move into the South China Sea and 00Z peaks it at 962mb then rapidly weakens offshore Hainan.

EURO starting to pick up on this solution.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS still very optimistic on Tokage developing in the South China Sea after crossing the Philippines. Has a 985mb typhoon crashing into Vietnam.

Again, EURO drops it.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF and GFS show a TS or typhoon traversing the Central Philippines in the coming week.









And seldom do I see GFS be this consistent

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Both GFS & ECMWF show a mid to high-end tropical storm slamming my location by Nov 24 and 25!

[euro6208]

06Z GFS stronger with it's first landfall. Has landfall over Dinagat Island and into Southern Leyte on Thanksgiving Day, passes over quite a number of provinces before striking Palawan as it intensifies. Peaks it at 953mb before a Vietnam landfall.

[euro6208]

The recipient is just to the southeast of Guam and it doesn't look too menacing as of now.

[euro6208]

INVEST 98W

Up for Philippine system.

[euro6208]

GFS for the past 2 runs showing Nock-Ten entering the Philippine Sea in the first week of December.

[euro6208]

Been very busy and several days since i checked the models, looks like more and more models are agreeing on Nock-Ten developing.

NAVGEM has an equatorward system and a typhoon passing south of Guam first week of December.

CMC has it too but slower. TS on the 2nd and a TY on the 5th. Almost similiar path.

And of course, GFS has for many runs showing a similiar path and deepens it to 948mb (Some runs lower) before recurving.

EURO still quiet.

[euro6208]

Been very busy and several days since i checked the models, looks like more and more models are agreeing on Nock-Ten developing.

NAVGEM has an equatorward system and a typhoon passing south of Guam first week of December.

CMC has it too but slower. TS on the 2nd and a TY on the 5th. Almost similiar path.

And of course, GFS has for many runs showing a similiar path and deepens it to 948mb (Some runs lower) before recurving.

EURO still quiet.

Even stronger on the latest NAVGEM. 969mb in the P.I sea.

Weaker for CMC and seems to interact this with two other disturbances.

EURO now on board with development AFTER it crosses the Philippines. 12Z had a typhoon but 00Z only peaks it at 996mb on a similiar path as Tokage.

[euro6208]

12Z GFS peaked Nock-Ten at 900mb, 18Z at 896mb, and 00Z at 918mb. Track has shifted more left with Yap in line and more towards the Philippines before the recurve.

[euro6208]

It's starting to get very messy down there.