2016 WPAC Season

[FireRat]

Interesting how the previous storm droughts in the WPAC occurred during the dates immediately following Super El Ninos, or very strong ones! 1972, 1997, and now 2015's. When the season gets going however, there could still be some blockbusters, such as Zeb from 1998.

[cycloneye]

Years after El Nino cause the WPAC to have much less activity.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/748282144808566784

[euro6208]

Finally back from my vacation and seems like the models have waken up now...

NAVGEM finally hinting on something developing either a typhoon or a TS beyond 144 hours heading into the Philippines or Taiwan...

CMC for quite sometime has a typhoon making landfall anywhere from the Northern Marianas, Taiwan or the Southern Ryukyu Islands. Has a TS passing over Guam.

00Z EURO also with a typhoon much further west near Hong Kong but it's gone from 12Z.

GFS was hinting of a TC possibly a typhoon passing very close northeast of Saipan. 18Z shifted further west, a TD/TS strengthening as it moves to Taiwan.

[euro6208]

Looks like the models are developing Nepartak with a bang as it hits someone down the road.

NAVGEM has development starting in 114 hours and has a typhoon north of Luzon.



CMC even faster on development starting in 54 hours, has a typhoon clipping Guam in 78 hours, and a typhoon threatening Asia down the road.

[euro6208]

EURO starts development in 96 hours west of Guam and peaks it at 959 mb as it passes Okinawa.



Like all models, GFS also bringing the timeframe closer at 108 hours development and has a possibly typhoon headed for southern Taiwan.

[euro6208]

A robust monsoon trough with a pair of weak circulation. The one southeast of Yap or south of Guam is the one the models develop...

[euro6208]

The WPAC trying to wakeup with a vengeance on Taiwan. GFS has Nepartak developing around 60 hours and takes it northwest towards southern Taiwan around the 7th. Then on the 9th develops Lupit in the P.I sea and sends it to poor northern Taiwan around the 10th/11th...as typhoons...

[euro6208]

I wouldn't be surprised if the systems get way more powerful than what the models are predicting. The waters are just insane and cover a very large area.

[dexterlabio]

Potential TC formation in WPAC without the aid of a Kelvin wave?

[euro6208]

GFS spins up Nepartak in just 48 hours and is even stronger in latest run...968mb...at landfall.

[euro6208]

00Z EURO run a bit weaker 983 mb compared with 959 mb from the 12Z run but agrees that a typhoon will pass through the Ryukyu Islands...

GFS into Taiwan vs EURO.

[1900hurricane]

That area looks like it is starting to form a bit more of a sovereign identity from the monsoon trough. I'd actually expect it to be declared an invest here pretty soon. The best convection appears to be offset a little to the west from the best vorticity at the moment, but all in all, not too bad.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, sure enough, Invest 99W.

(Edit: ended up becoming Super Typhoon Nepartak)

[euro6208]

Potential TC formation in WPAC without the aid of a Kelvin wave?

Not an expert in this but according to this map, there is some Kelvin wave activity in the WPAC although the bulk of it is in the eastern hemisphere and if you look closely, there is some black outline which indicates an MJO over the area where the developing system is located and stretches all the way to the Indian Ocean.... Then in red lines, you have a westward moving equatorial Rossby Wave. I believe one or if not all three is responsible for this...

Coincidentally, this is about the same time this system gradually develops...

[euro6208]

Besides 2005 and 2010, has the Atlantic ever led the WPAC by 4 tropical storms at any time during a season?

I haven't looked into this but once i have free time, I'll update...

[euro6208]

A few of the models especially GFS and EURO hinting on some development...

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the monsoon trough has spawn a weak circulation just off Visayas. Not really knowledgeable about classifying systems though, has anyone seen the same thing or was it just me? Some model runs are showing a weak LPA getting sucked by Nepartak..

[1900hurricane]

Here's where it is, by the way. Really flew under my radar. I'll use the excuse that I'm on vacation.



I'm waiting to see if ASCAT hits it (and will probably fall asleep before I get to see), but an earlier RSCAT pass did show cyclonicly curved wind barbs with it. 00Z CIMSS analysis doesn't show too much LL vorticity, but turning does look evident on satellite loops. It'll be interesting to see if it manages to maintain itself.

[1900hurricane]

Bah, both ASCAT passes missed it.

[1900hurricane]

Late night (local time) water break update: still no scatterometer passes, but the little bugger is still persisting.