2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Slightly weaker, 1001mb, on the latest EURO before moving into Vietnam.

It has another possible TC in the SCS in 240 hours.

[euro6208]

91W THREAD

SCS

[euro6208]

GFS agrees with EURO on another possible development. Both doesn't develop it that much before crashing it into the Malay Peninsula.

[euro6208]

Another one to end the year?

[euro6208]

Another one to end the year?

GFS still latching onto this scenario. Has a Christmas Day TC for someone albeit weak.

[euro6208]

GFS agrees with EURO on another possible development. Both doesn't develop it that much before crashing it into the Malay Peninsula.

Dropped.

[euro6208]

More and more models supporting GFS's idea of something developing last 2 weeks of December.

JMA has a deep low around the 20th southwest of Guam.

NAVGEM has a very broad very large system in the same timeframe.

CMC has a well developed TC south of Guam and impacting Palau and Yap before crashing into the Philippines as a 992 mb system.

12Z EURO had a 997mb system making a Mindanao landfall. 00Z is weaker.

GFS has the same feature peaking at earlier runs at 937mb as it recurves away from the Philippines. 00Z What a change, barely even a TC!

[euro6208]

GFS is developing another system behind what the current models are developing.

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and ECMWF have been trending westward, with the ECMWF more dramatic from a recurve yesterday to a Southern Luzon landfall this run. GFS is showing Northern Mindanao landfall then exit thru Palawan. They all agree on a fairly strong system (for December) and a strike during Christmas eve and day.

GFS





ECMWF

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS, CMC & NAVGEM have gotten somewhat more bullish the past few runs already. 977 mb for GFS before striking Mindanao on the 23rd.

GFS



CMC



NAVGEM

[1900hurricane]

The potential system does have modest ensemble support too. Could be something to watch beginning in a few days.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



CMC



EURO

[euro6208]

After days of showing a significant typhoon making landfall over Mindanao/Visayas, GFS has lean back on it. Past 2 runs barely even develops anything.

[euro6208]

NWS starting to notice.

ASCAT analysis shows weak circulations south of Koror at 4N134E
and south of Chuuk near 2N151E, both embedded within a near-
equatorial trough. Also, the area of trade-wind convergence over
Eastern Micronesia is edging westward toward Chuuk State. Models
indicate the weak circulation south of Chuuk could eventually move
toward the northwest and further develop in the coming days.
Although the atmosphere will be slightly drier over Yap State for
the near term, winds, waves and showers could become more inclement
this week for all of Western Micronesia.

[euro6208]

Very messy down there south and southeast of Guam.

[euro6208]

INVEST 92W is up.

[euro6208]

Maybe another one to end this incredible season?

CMC has a TS east of the Southern Tip of Vietnam but weakens it thereafter as it approaches the coast.



It's also getting some kind of support from EURO which shows a broad low.

[euro6208]

Seems like EURO has dropped this potential SCS system but lo and behold, GFS is also trying to latch onto this. Keeps it weak though before crashing into the Malay Peninsula.

[euro6208]

2016 isn't over according to the models. NAVGEM, CMC, ECMWF, and GFS hinting on something tracking south of Guam towards the Southern Philippines. The latter two is the weakest.