2016 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but with the current onset of La Niña conditions, isn't the likelihood of the EPAC getting anything beyond weak/moderate storms before the season's end greatly reduced?

[Kingarabian]

For the past few runs, the GFS has been hinting on a plethora of competing vorts'. Wouldn't be surprised to see another long tracker or multiple systems.

[hurricanes1234]

Much like how a couple weeks ago it hinted at multiple storms in the EPAC and CPAC, out of which we got multiple invests instead.

[Kingarabian]

Much like how a couple weeks ago it hinted at multiple storms in the EPAC and CPAC, out of which we got multiple invests instead.

Signal is much stronger now. Lot's of members from the GEFS and EPS are onboard for decent tropical genesis.

[hurricanes1234]

Two new mentions today, apart from dormant 99E. I have a feeling the Gulf of Tehuantepec one has a greater chance of developing.

2. A weak low pressure system located about 825 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are only marginally conducive and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while
the low drifts northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of
this disturbance is possible over the weekend while the system moves
to the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS have been brutal this past week. Both showing development run after run yet nothing has materialized.

[hurricanes1234]

Euro and GFS have been brutal this past week. Both showing development run after run yet nothing has materialized.

If anything, that area in the far eastern Pacific has the greatest chance IMO. Or an alternative is it pulls a 99E and just sits in open water for days without any development.

[HurricaneRyan]

I honestly didn't expect the strongest storm of the season to occur this long after the activity died down.

The EPAC finally gets some activity this month and it's a big one.

[Kingarabian]

Euro not finished with the season yet:

[hurricanes1234]

EPAC wants some November recognition too.

An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Although environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this
system during the next few days, they could become more favorable
this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Darvince]

Sorry for the language, but what the f*****?

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a sub tropical system

[hurricanes1234]

I guess that's for the area currently being given a 0/20% chance.

[Darvince]

In that model run an extratropical system headed south off of California, developed subtropical characteristics, then weakened and moved inland again as an extratropical system in southern California.

[hurricanes1234]

Models showing anything before the season doses off one last time?

[euro6208]

Models showing anything before the season doses off one last time?

Latest GFS develops something in the far extreme part of the basin.

[hurricanes1234]

A little something appears.

A small area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it
turns northwestward and moves into a region of stronger upper-level
winds later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hurricanes1234]

With the 2016 season basically finished, here are our preliminary numbers, pending certain TCRs which could potentially change the numbers:

22 named storms (including ATL-EPAC crossover Otto)
13 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes

There is a chance, albeit small, that Orlene could be revised to a major hurricane, in which the number of major hurricanes would hit 7.

Indeed, a very busy season continuing the streak of intense EPAC activity which began in 2014.

[1900hurricane]

Here is my data for the 2016 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season so far. All data is based on working best track numbers except 01E, Agatha, Estelle, and Frank, whose numbers are based on finalized best track data provided by their tropical cyclone reports.