2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Going to make this thread.

The fate of the season so far IMO depends on two things:

1.PDO state
2.When will the El Nino collapse? I think May is the breaking point. If we still have an El Nino come late may, the season will be active, but if we don't, I think it's the ATL's turn.

Obviously lots of time ahead but something to think about.

Also, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!


Here are some graphics: (I want this to be like the ENSO thread with all the needed info in the 1st post)

[Andrew92]

Just another reminder (in general, not just Yellow Evan), don't look just at the SST anomalies at the Equator. What happens in the EPAC MDR can have just as much of an effect as what happens at the Equator.

An isolated weak warm anomaly somewhere surrounded by cold anomalies is one thing, and does actually happen often right after an El Nino or warm EPAC year. But even if it goes La Nina by definition, if warm anomalies remain prevalent in the EPAC between about 10 and 20 degrees north, we still have a warm event going on. A warm PDO may help to enhance things in this regard, but I would still probably start with the tropical EPAC.

Merry Christmas!

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

The El Nino will collapse, the +PDO looks like it will remain this year. Years when the January PDO was greater 1.00 tends to finish positive. Some sample years 1973, 1983, and 1998. What were those seasons like in the EPAC? I don't believe the EPAC's 2 year run of very high activity comes to an end this season.

[SFLcane]

The El Nino will collapse, the +PDO looks like it will remain this year. Years when the January PDO was greater 1.00 tends to finish positive. Some sample years 1973, 1983, and 1998. What were those seasons like in the EPAC? I don't believe the EPAC's 2 year run of very high activity comes to an end this season.

Then more then likely another dud season across the Atlantic. We shall see

[CaliforniaResident]

I am predicting that it will be much quieter than the last two years; probably close to normal weighted towards more storms earlier in the season. La Nina will probably be strong by the onset of fall so I anticipate an early end this year.
My predictions are 15/8/3

[Yellow Evan]

I am predicting that it will be much quieter than the last two years; probably close to normal weighted towards more storms earlier in the season. La Nina will probably be strong by the onset of fall so I anticipate an early end this year.
My predictions are 15/8/3

+PDO is more likely than not to keep La Nina in check somewhat.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the 2016 EPAC season will be active even with El Nino gone as other factors may favor that basin as experts have been discussing in the past few days.

[Darvince]

EPAC should start lighting up in about a month as the ITCZ marches northwards.

Also, holy cow that ULL is STRONG

[Yellow Evan]

This EPAC season is such a wildcard. My most challenging forecast of my life.

Will the warm SST's off of MX cause shear in the Caribbean and focus all the upward motion? Or will the cold Nino 1+2 shear the EPAC? Or the latter but the colder water further west result in an average year with a lot of storms passing near/over Baja? Leaning towards option #3 at this point in time.

[Ntxw]

Patricia's name is retired. Fittingly. Benchmark for which all hurricanes in the western hemisphere to be judged by. Many of us were up late that night for the out of this world recon data and delivered.

[Kingarabian]

Patricia's name is retired. Fittingly. Benchmark for which all hurricanes in the western hemisphere to be judged by. Many of us were up late that night for the out of this world recon data and delivered.

Oh yes. Agreed 100%.

[CaliforniaResident]

I am predicting that it will be much quieter than the last two years; probably close to normal weighted towards more storms earlier in the season. La Nina will probably be strong by the onset of fall so I anticipate an early end this year.
My predictions are 15/8/3

Remarkable cooling off of Baja over the past several days. I am predicting an even quieter EPAC season and revising to 10/5/2. 2010 should be a good analog.

[Darvince]

Not... really...

[Yellow Evan]

I am predicting that it will be much quieter than the last two years; probably close to normal weighted towards more storms earlier in the season. La Nina will probably be strong by the onset of fall so I anticipate an early end this year.
My predictions are 15/8/3

Remarkable cooling off of Baja over the past several days. I am predicting an even quieter EPAC season and revising to 10/5/2. 2010 should be a good analog.

Not seeing anything that suggests any cooling. 2010 was during an inactive phase and a strong La Nina, the latter of which appears unlikely. Hwever, this year's is still anyone's guess.

[Hurricaneman]

Theres some significant cooling north of 20N but not where it matters most for EPAC activity which that area remains above normal

[stormwise]

Obviously sst atm will still support storms,Its the mid-level shear that is questionable.

[Darvince]

Not seeing anything that suggests any cooling. 2010 was during an inactive phase and a strong La Nina, the latter of which appears unlikely. Hwever, this year's is still anyone's guess.

Doesn't EPAC active phase basically mean the same as +PDO?

[Yellow Evan]

Not seeing anything that suggests any cooling. 2010 was during an inactive phase and a strong La Nina, the latter of which appears unlikely. Hwever, this year's is still anyone's guess.

Doesn't EPAC active phase basically mean the same as +PDO?

More or less.

[Kingarabian]

Area of interest. Doesn't look like there's anything at the surface yet though.

[stormwise]

Trough