2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

What if its a annular hurricane 24c is more than adequate.?

If a system isn't moving over a sharp SST gradient, usually it is, assuming there is cool air aloft (often times there isn't in the EPAC, but there often is at high latitudes of the ATL), allowing for convection to persists, but these storms are quite shallow.

[stormwise]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_ ... _HGT_WINDS
not hires but good enough.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through 48 hours showing the old first ECMWF storm more

[Yellow Evan]

Through day 3

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through 108 hours

[Yellow Evan]

920 mbars so far through 150 hours

[Yellow Evan]

915 mbar peak. Track shifting south as the GFs is showing a thicker ridge over the W US but appears to be re-curving as it nears a trough.



0z GFS day eight.



Day ten. Now has Blas and Celia (Blas 2nd consecutive major, Celia further NW).

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a second monster to be system.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS day 16: Celia and Darby

[Kingarabian]

Well GFS has my attention. This initial steering setup where the storms pickup altitude may pose a risk to Hawaii as they move west..

[Yellow Evan]

Well GFS has my attention. This initial steering setup where the storms pickup altitude may pose a risk to Hawaii as they move west..

GFS seems to have future Agatha and Blas re-curving out to sea, which makes sense given how far east their forming and the ridging extending from the Western US to 120-130W and their strength. No reason to get too alarmed yet.

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form in this area in a couple of days, and
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for a tropical
depression to develop over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Well GFS has my attention. This initial steering setup where the storms pickup altitude may pose a risk to Hawaii as they move west..

GFS seems to have future Agatha and Blas re-curving out to sea, which makes sense given how far east their forming and the ridging extending from the Western US to 120-130W and their strength. No reason to get too alarmed yet.

10-16 days out means nothing is set in the stone.

But the trend from the GFS and the Euro is not a cut clear trough as they initially showed 5 days ago.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF five days out. Very good agreement now with 2 systems.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF day eight 3 systems and a 950 mbar hurricane. Boy has the ECMWF caved.

[stormwise]

CMC was showing the first cyclone being captured by a front, then the ridge rebuilding and the 2nd cyclone tracking west.


intensity wise i take no notice.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF day 10

[Darvince]

Here we go again! 6z GFS showing the ECMWF storm at the same depth as the future monster:

[Darvince]

Monster reaches TS strength at 72h:

[Darvince]

Hurr strength now, and 972mb: