2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

Eastern East Pacific usually takes off in September-October. Lot's of warm waters.

[NDG]

With the 96-97 units EPAC is running a little ahead of last year. I checked the ACE thread for 2015 and by Aug 7th 2015 it was sitting around 84 units. The triplets (Ignacio, Kilo, Jimena) then racked up another 100+ units in August though...

Yeap, August of last year was like July of this year, by August 31st EPAC ACE was up to a whopping 159! Seven days later in September up to 207 thanks to the long track of major hurricane Jimena.
August of this year a lot quieter

[Kingarabian]

With the 96-97 units EPAC is running a little ahead of last year. I checked the ACE thread for 2015 and by Aug 7th 2015 it was sitting around 84 units. The triplets (Ignacio, Kilo, Jimena) then racked up another 100+ units in August though...

Yeap, August of last year was like July of this year, by August 31st EPAC ACE was up to a whopping 159! Seven days later in September up to 207 thanks to the long track of major hurricane Jimena.
August of this year a lot quieter

If the shear does not abate, then It'll be really tough to have a strong hurricane with a long track to generate a lot of ACE.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

With the 96-97 units EPAC is running a little ahead of last year. I checked the ACE thread for 2015 and by Aug 7th 2015 it was sitting around 84 units. The triplets (Ignacio, Kilo, Jimena) then racked up another 100+ units in August though...

Yeap, August of last year was like July of this year, by August 31st EPAC ACE was up to a whopping 159! Seven days later in September up to 207 thanks to the long track of major hurricane Jimena.
August of this year a lot quieter

If the shear does not abate, then It'll be really tough to have a strong hurricane with a long track to generate a lot of ACE.

http://i.imgur.com/tjGIG5j.gif

Any chance the shear will abate soon?

[Yellow Evan]

Right now MJO is in the WPAC, so this level of shear is to be expected.

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS and Euro runs show a CPAC system with the latter model showing 94E developing.

[hurricanes1234]

How strong does it develop 94E? Also does the model show it coming close to Hawaii?

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: How strong does it develop 94E? Also does the model show it coming close to Hawaii?

GFS drops it (I have no idea what's wrong with this model. Keeps switching between development and no development between each run).

Euro mantains a strong TS moving west to the south of the Hawaiian islands. Shows a subtropical ridge in tact to keep Hawaii safe.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest ENSO update gives a 55%-60% chance of a La Niña by fall or winter.

Personally I'd say there's a slight possibility that the season could see an early end if that verifies.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest ENSO update gives a 55%-60% chance of a La Niña by fall or winter.

Personally I'd say there's a slight possibility that the season could see an early end if that verifies.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

CFS monthly has been very consistent in showing low shear in October, dating back months.

BTW, you don't need to post the disclaimer twice.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hinting at an active monsoon trough as the MJO enters the region.

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! It's actually showing a fairly deep system there. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on that to see if it's continuously present with every run or if it's just a stray run.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has another quick strike Baja storm:



Lots of low pressures areas in the western EPAC:





Possible K-L storms soon with another ACE contributor in the CPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like things will definitely be picking up here soon.

At what point in the season do the general tracks of storms change from moving westward over open waters to moving more northwest and remaining closer to land?

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Looks like things will definitely be picking up here soon.

At what point in the season do the general tracks of storms change from moving westward over open waters to moving more northwest and remaining closer to land?

Generally towards the end of September going into October-November.

[hurricanes1234]

Another area has been lemoned...

Another area of disturbed weather located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing some
signs of organization. However, environmental conditions are
expected to remain only marginally conducive for any additional
development while this system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder if we'll see another fish here this month.

What's the website you guys go on for all the model runs?

Thanks.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models