2016 CPAC Season

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cycloneye
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2016 CPAC Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:29 pm

Let's see how active this basin will be in 2016 as El Nino begins to fade as the months go by.Models are showing something developing well SW of Hawaii in the next few days.

Image

Names:

Pali (PAH-lee)
Ulika (oo-LEE-kah)
Walaka (wah-LAH-kah)
Akoni (ah - KOH - nee)
Ema (EH - mah)
Hone (HOH-neh)
Iona (ee-OH-nah)
Keli (KEH-lee)
Lala (LAH-lah)
Moke (MOH-keh)
Nolo (NOH-loh)
Olana (oh-LAH-nah)
Pena (PEH-nah)
Ulana (oo-LAH-nah)
Wale (WAH-leh)
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:19 pm

Invest 90C is up
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#3 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:22 am

What? The CPAC gets the first storm of the year before the WPAC?
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:25 am

:uarrow: Thanks to the strong El Nino.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:40 pm

Looks like Pali will be around for a few more days getting more and more ACE units and this is a first for a January getting so much ACE (3.755) as of this post.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:16 pm

This says it all about Pali.

IT IS RATHER SURREAL TO BE SAYING THIS IN JANUARY...BUT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH
THE RAGGED EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN THE EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE PARTICIPATING AGENCIES WERE
UNANIMOUS AT 4.5 AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT GAVE 5.1. THUS...NOT ONLY IS
PALI NOW A HURRICANE...

And the ACE keeps going up for the basin.(4.3175)
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:18 pm

Amazing.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#8 Postby Darvince » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:41 am

Do you think we'll see any more storms after Pali dissipates before the season officially begins? Ala Hali 1992.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#9 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:14 pm

Darvince wrote:Do you think we'll see any more storms after Pali dissipates before the season officially begins? Ala Hali 1992.


With the El Nino going on, I won't rule out the possibility at all. Won't be that surprised if it happens again.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:15 am

Kingarabian you may have to watch closely in Hawaii what happens to 94E and beyond.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:23 am

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian you may have to watch closely in Hawaii what happens to 94E and beyond.


Yeah I'm not letting my guard down. Especially with that +PDO.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:28 am

Fortunately the latest model runs (from the Euro and GFS) have 94E passing north east of Hawaii. Only problem that these forecasts are in the long range and may change.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:01 pm

12z ECMWF goes deep into CPAC still with a bonifde Hurricane Blas and Celia is behind.

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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#14 Postby stormwise » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:27 pm

Image
BLAS
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:49 pm

INVEST 91C is up
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:25 pm

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/769011585784352774


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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:38 pm

Yeah. Unsettling depictions from the models at the moment.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#18 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:57 pm

Image
Biased corrected ens not buying into canes atm.
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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:57 pm

Looks SAB started doing satellite analyses on a little system in the CPac. It isn't even designated as an invest yet.

TXPN23 KNES 280038
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 28/0000Z

C. 11.9N

D. 160.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH A CENTER NEAR A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS 1.0 WHILE THE PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS...LIMITING THE INTIAL FT TO 1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MICHAEL


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Re: 2016 CPAC Season

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:16 am

INVEST 92C is up
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