2016 ACE: ATL - 134.7 - EPAC - 191.9 - WPAC - 258.2125

[Alyono]

This year on its own could be explained by the utter collapse of the PDO

But we had an October peak the last 2 years without a significant ramp up in September

[Ntxw]

wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff

Is there any chance this is related to El Nino or at least the warmer tropical E Pacific waters? That's the one thing I can think of that had all three in common.

The summers in the states (that I have noticed here in TX) have extended well into October the past several years with relatively slow, late starts. The displacements of the summers can really be seen going back since 2010

[cycloneye]

00z update is up.Atlantic continues to go up fast and WPAC is approaching the 200 mark.

[euro6208]

Just one more monster to put 2016 on par normally...

[WeatherGuesser]

The summers in the states (that I have noticed here in TX) have extended well into October the past several years with relatively slow, late starts. The displacements of the summers can really be seen going back since 2010

You too huh? I thought it was just me.

I've noted a few times over the last few years that Summer seems to be extending through September and into October. I've seen a number of 80s in October and even a few in November. Meanwhile, Spring seems to be getting delayed with cooler temperatures into March and even April. It's like the calendar is shifting.

Also, there's been talk of some kind of magnetic polar shift that's either due or overdue. Makes me wonder if that could be happening and having some kind of effect.

[cycloneye]

09z update is up.

[Buck]

Why is there such a big discrepancy between the number on here and the number on Wikipedia? Both are updated very frequently... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2016 ... /ACE_calcs

[Alyono]

because Maue is calculating operational ACE entirely wrong. He should not be using working best track. He should be using regularly scheduled full advisory intensity. His calculations have had several jumps that have not made mathematical sense

[cycloneye]

21z update is up.I have noticed that Maue has fixes to the data constantly.Nicole now is forecast to be a major cane so much more ACE will pump the Atlantic.WPAC looks to break really away from EPAC as now TD 24W is poised to be a strong Typhoon and new Invest 94W according to models,will be very strong.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/786352068986494976

[1900hurricane]

I compute my numbers using working best track and they generally come in lower than Maue's numbers. As of 00Z October 13th, I have 115.6575 units of ACE for the Atlantic and 187.5425 units of ACE for the Western Pacific (no numbers for the EPac right now as I'm still putting that one together). Maue's numbers also seem to jump way ahead and then have to be corrected back for whatever reason.

[Hammy]

What is the likelihood of exceeding 133 (2012) and 144 (2008) for the Atlantic before the season is over?

[Alyono]

What is the likelihood of exceeding 133 (2012) and 144 (2008) for the Atlantic before the season is over?

depends what happens in the Caribbean. You get a monster, then we are talking a seasonal ACE between 175 and 200

[Hurricaneman]

What is the likelihood of exceeding 133 (2012) and 144 (2008) for the Atlantic before the season is over?

Id say its quite possible if the Caribbean system gets going

[cycloneye]

09z update is up.

[NotoSans]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
Another website that can be used to follow the ACE. I find these numbers more accurate than that provided by Maue.

[HurricaneRyan]

What's the ACE update on Nicole?

[cycloneye]

What's the ACE update on Nicole?

It has 18.6 ACE units.

[cycloneye]

I am collecting the data from the CSU site instead of the Maue one.

[HurricaneRyan]

Why was the ACE decreased for the Atlantic?