2016 ACE: ATL - 134.7 - EPAC - 191.9 - WPAC - 258.2125

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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL -107.67 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 178.028

#241 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:23 pm

21z update is up as Matthew continues to add plenty of ACE to Atlantic while Nicole gets a few more.Matthew as of this update has a ACE number of 45.225.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL -107.67 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 178.028

#242 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:40 pm

With the current ACE, four more points (almost guaranteed at this point) and one more hurricane puts us into above average season territory--anybody think that won't happen?
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 110.338 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 178.64

#243 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:04 am

15z update is up.Matthew now has 47.36 ACE units pushing the Atlantic to over 110 units.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 110.338 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 178.64

#244 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 08, 2016 4:48 pm

this has totally flipped the script big time.

If Nicole intensifies as much as the global models are forecasting, we could be around 125-130 ACE after Nicole is all said and done. Throw in a Caribbean storm at the end of the month and we are borderline hyperactive.

NEVER did I think this was possible. My 7 hurricanes and 2 cat 3+ may verify. I just didn't expect going into this season a storm like Matthew to chew up about 50 ACE by itself
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 112.25 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 180.335

#245 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:53 am

09z Update is up. Matthew ends with 48.6275 ACE units but that could change a little up or down with some fixes of the data.Meanwhile,Nicole continues to get some more to help the Atlantic rise even more.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 110.338 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 178.64

#246 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:09 am

Alyono wrote:this has totally flipped the script big time.

If Nicole intensifies as much as the global models are forecasting, we could be around 125-130 ACE after Nicole is all said and done. Throw in a Caribbean storm at the end of the month and we are borderline hyperactive.

NEVER did I think this was possible. My 7 hurricanes and 2 cat 3+ may verify. I just didn't expect going into this season a storm like Matthew to chew up about 50 ACE by itself

I'm almost certain something will form in the Western Caribbean before the season ends. And with so much TCHP there, it's anybody's guess how strong it'll get.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 112.25 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 180.335

#247 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 3:10 am

Well, if we do get at least a couple more named storms, with at least one being another major (which I'm pretty sure we will), then 2016 will truly have racked up a ton of ACE and the season itself feeling like a story of two Atlantic seasons.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 114.14 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 183.875

#248 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2016 5:34 am

09z update is up.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 114.14 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 183.875

#249 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:39 am

I see a couple of invests for the EPAC, but will anything help make up the current deficit and retake the lead?
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 114.14 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 183.875

#250 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:49 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:I see a couple of invests for the EPAC, but will anything help make up the current deficit and retake the lead?


WPAC will conserve the actual lead as Invest 93W develops into a Tropical Storm / Typhoon in the next few days.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 114.545 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 187.75

#251 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:23 pm

there is a chance that Atlantic will pass the EPAC if this Caribbean monster forms

A total flip from about September 20th
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 114.545 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 187.75

#252 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:14 pm

:uarrow: Now that it looks like Hurricane Nicole will ramp up ACE units in a hurry that possibility grows.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#253 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:35 pm

18z update is up with Atlantic surpassing 115 ACE units with Hurricane Nicole and WPAC get more with Typhoon Songda.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#254 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:51 pm

We're now past 2001 and going to exceed 2000 (116), both of which were mild La Nina seasons, and within striking distance of 2011 (126) if Nicole can strengthen and maintain itself or if we get another storm afterwards.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#255 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:58 pm

wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#256 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:03 pm

Alyono wrote:wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff


I've noted a few times over the last few years that Summer seems to be extending through September and into October. I've seen a number of 80s in October and even a few in November. Meanwhile, Spring seems to be getting delayed with cooler temperatures into March and even April. It's like the calendar is shifting.

Also, there's been talk of some kind of magnetic polar shift that's either due or overdue. Makes me wonder if that could be happening and having some kind of effect.
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#257 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:04 pm

Alyono wrote:wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff


Yeah I was wondering the same, seems like October has become the month even going back to 2012 where Sandy from deep in the SW Caribbean found a way to hit the Northeast US as if it were a late Aug or September type setup.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#258 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:06 pm

EPAC is pretty much dead even with two Invests but those don't look to be adding much ACE if at all as development is not looking good.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#259 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:32 pm

Alyono wrote:wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff


Is there any chance this is related to El Nino or at least the warmer tropical E Pacific waters? That's the one thing I can think of that had all three in common.
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Re: 2016 ACE: ATL - 115.252 - EPAC - 171.3575- WPAC - 189.44

#260 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:35 pm

Hammy wrote:
Alyono wrote:wonder if there has been some sort of climate shift? This is the 3rd straight year where the peak of the season has occurred in October instead of September. It seems like we're going toward a season with more consistent development throughout the year, with a slow build up to early October, then a rapid falloff


Is there any chance this is related to El Nino or at least the warmer tropical E Pacific waters? That's the one thing I can think of that had all three in common.


Didn't all three also have anomalously warm waters off the mid-Atlantic and NE US coast as well?
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