Low pressure in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

[Hammy]

I've been casually following the models, but had doubt this would really happen. I'm quite surprised to see it actually organize enough to see NHC mention it though, especially considering it's been over 50 years since we've had a winter tropical/subtropical storm form off the EC.

[TheAustinMan]

Latest satellite image (late night January 7). A fairly robust system for this time of year at that location. Will be very interesting to see what it does at it makes its trek.

[CrazyC83]

It's HUGE too...bigger than Sandy in terms of footprint!

[xironman]

56kt gusts at the buoy east of Bermuda
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048

Code: Select all

01   08   12:50 am     WNW   44.7   56.3   17.1   11   8.0   SSW   29.27   +0.03   68.7   72.7   66.2   -   -   -


[cycloneye]

Looks less frontal and as it moves eastward,it may get some favorable conditions to be subtropical.

[wxman57]

Yeah, looking less likely it might get classified. Models move it off to the NE more quickly now. Doesn't get trapped beneath the high center for long.

[WPBWeather]

Welcome to the very early start of the 2016 season... or the very late ending of 2015.

[CrazyC83]

Welcome to the very early start of the 2016 season... or the very late ending of 2015.

It would be a 2016 storm, and named Alex.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%-30%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 75 miles north
of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale-force winds and maximum
winds of 50 to 60 mph. During the next couple of days, the
combination of strong upper-level winds, dry air, and cool sea-
surface temperatures are expected to remain unfavorable for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the low moves
eastward at 15 to 20 mph into the central Atlantic Ocean. However,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for this system
to acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves east-
southeastward into the eastern subtropical Atlantic next week.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of
the central Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 3 PM EST Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan

[stormwise]

Convention is firing up around the lower level center.

[xironman]

DMax must be forever up there

[NDG]

Official winds reported yesterday afternoon in Bermuda from the storm.

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conditions at:   TXKF (BERMUDA NAS , BM) observed 1655 UTC 08 January 2016
Temperature:   21.0°C (70°F)
Dewpoint:   18.0°C (64°F) [RH = 83%]
Pressure (altimeter):   29.41 inches Hg (996.0 mb)
Winds:   from the SW (230 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility:   5 miles (8 km)
Ceiling:   1500 feet AGL
Clouds:   broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3000 feet AGL
Weather:   -SHRA  (light rain showers)

[TheStormExpert]

It's becoming much less likely that anything Subtropical or even Tropical comes out of this system.

Still a very interesting system that got mentioned by the NHC anyways.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%-30%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An extratropical low pressure system centered about 600 miles
east-northeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale-force
winds and maximum winds of 50 to 60 mph. While the low is forecast
to intensify during the next day or two, the combination of strong
upper-level winds, dry air, and cool sea-surface temperatures are
expected to remain unfavorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation while the low moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph into the
central Atlantic Ocean. However, environmental conditions could
become more conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical
characteristics early next week while it moves east-southeastward
into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Regardless of subtropical or
tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce
hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central Atlantic
for the next few days. For additional information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EST
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheAustinMan]

Interestingly, the SHIPS intensity model is outputting a model intensity forecast for a system designated "AL822016" (which would implicate Invest 82L?). This system appears to correlate well with the current low pressure area northeast of Bermuda, and if SHIPS is indeed modelling this system now, the track from SHIPS appears below. Forecast intensity from SHIPS suggests dissipation after 60 hours.

[Sanibel]

It's off season so I accidentally posted on this in the Active Storm section (forgot the rules about what is active and not). I wondered why nobody had picked up on it (doh).

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like convection firing near the center

[xironman]

If they are going to give a designation it would have to probably be in the next 24 hours or so as it heads south. Does not look very frontal now.

[Sanibel]

That's probably all conditions will support. Remember, it is January.


Disclaimer: Just my unprofessional personal opinion. Refer to official forecasts if you are following this storm for serious information.

[cycloneye]

Looking more and more subtropical.