2016 TCRs

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Re: 2016 TCRs

#101 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:20 pm

Revisiting this season: if the finding is that the SFMR overestimates winds in intensifying high intensity hurricanes, Matthew would probably be downgraded to cat 4. It wasn't until 2017 that they identified the issue.

At the time of the SFMR being 143 kt (basis for the 145 kt intensity), the FL winds were 134 kt, which equates to 121 kt at the surface. Dropsondes were in the low 120s as well and Dvorak was around T6.5. Accounting with an undercount and blending similar to the 2017 storms and Michael, that would only translate into an intensity of about 130 kt at the time it is currently analyzed as peaking. The highest FL winds were actually in the last pass before Haiti landfall at its pressure peak, when they were 142 kt (translates to 128 kt at the surface) which was in agreement with SFMR, but at that time it was only slowly intensifying. In addition, the KZC estimate of pressure at 145 kt at 01/0000Z was 917 mb but the actual pressure was 942 mb (which would equate to about 120 kt given the location, size and movement).

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