2016 TCRs

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Re: 2016 TCRs

#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:36 pm

Tropical Storm Tina (EPAC) now out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP212016_Tina.pdf
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:18 pm

The report for Tropical Storm Ian has now been released. Interestingly enough, the system was given a subtropical segment of existence. I can't help but wonder if Nicole will be handled in a similar fashion.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:50 pm

1900hurricane wrote:The report for Tropical Storm Ian has now been released. Interestingly enough, the system was given a subtropical segment of existence. I can't help but wonder if Nicole will be handled in a similar fashion.


I could be wrong, but I think Ian is the first storm in the satellite era to go from tropical to subtropical and back to tropical. (Before satellites, Ian would have probably be kept as a TS throughout)
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#24 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:The report for Tropical Storm Ian has now been released. Interestingly enough, the system was given a subtropical segment of existence. I can't help but wonder if Nicole will be handled in a similar fashion.


I could be wrong, but I think Ian is the first storm in the satellite era to go from tropical to subtropical and back to tropical. (Before satellites, Ian would have probably be kept as a TS throughout)


Georges in 1980 also did this (having degenerated briefly into an open wave, and weakening below gale force). Ian remaining at gale force and becoming subtropical and tropical again is rare according to the best track (due to the subtropical label being infrequently used). Other storms that likely did this include Alberto 00 and Gabrielle 01.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#25 Postby kala » Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:40 pm

Not an NHC basin, but in 2015 JTWC stopped issuing advisories on Molave as it had become subtropical, before reinitiating it later as a TS. Not sure if they kept that in reanalysis or if they even indicate subtropical systems in their reanalysis.

But that was possibly the last time it happened worldwide, which means it's surprisingly not that uncommon of an occurrance.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:35 pm

kala wrote:Not an NHC basin, but in 2015 JTWC stopped issuing advisories on Molave as it had become subtropical, before reinitiating it later as a TS. Not sure if they kept that in reanalysis or if they even indicate subtropical systems in their reanalysis.

But that was possibly the last time it happened worldwide, which means it's surprisingly not that uncommon of an occurrance.

I remember that happening in real time last year with Molave, but JTWC kept the system fully tropical in the final best track.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#27 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:00 pm

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Re: 2016 TCRs

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:44 pm

NotoSans wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122016_Karl.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112016_Javier.pdf

The reports for TS Karl (ATL) and Javier (EPAC) are out.


No significant changes for either storm.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#29 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:17 pm

In a chat session with Dr. Blake, all the reports have had their draft versions written except for Julia and Paine, although there are reviewing and editing of the other remaining reports underway. Probably a much bigger order with, say, Matthew.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#30 Postby NotoSans » Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:57 am

Two more TCRs are released today - Hurricane Gaston (ATL) and Lester (EPAC). Note that the latter one only includes the EPAC portion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072016_Gaston.pdf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132016_Lester.pdf
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#31 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:17 pm

Ulika may be the last to be published, as there are two EPAC parts and two CPAC parts that requires collaboration - they can't just kick the can on that on.

I'd have gone with a peak intensity of 110 kt for Gaston, as well as a 75 kt intensity in the initial peak given the satellite signature comparison to when the Global Hawk data became available.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#32 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:58 am

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Re: 2016 TCRs

#33 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:48 pm

Regarding Colin, I'm not sure if I would have kept it as a TC across the Southeast. I was questioning its landfall status - and I would have probably changed it to a remnant low at 0000Z June 7 (including at landfall).
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:37 pm

No new reports, but NHC updated Ivette's report to include CPHC's analysis.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#35 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:13 pm

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Re: 2016 TCRs

#36 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:32 pm

Earl has been released. Intensity a little stronger.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052016_Earl.pdf
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 24, 2017 2:54 pm

Also 81 direct deaths in Mexico, deadliest Atlantic storm in the country since Stan in 2005.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#38 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:28 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112016_Julia.pdf
The TCR for Julia has been released. The genesis time was backed up 21 hours from the operational designation, and the peak intensity has been bumped up to 45 knots.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#39 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:06 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092016_Hermine.pdf
The TCR for Hermine is now available.
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Re: 2016 TCRs

#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:18 pm

Regarding Hermine, the sparse data network in the Florida big bend was a key limiting factor.

Based on the aircraft, land and cruise ship reports, I would have bumped the intensity in its post-tropical stage upward, probably to 65 kt from the moment of transition (03/1200) until 04/1800, and a spot peak of 70 kt at 04/1200, concurrent with the excursion of a cruise ship into the core that recorded extremely strong gusts to over 100 kt (although sustained winds were surely lower). Also, I don't think the "extratropical" classification is accurate either as it wasn't really frontal, but it lacked the deep convection needed to be a TC.
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