2016 TCRs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
NotoSans
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 948
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs

#41 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:40 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162016_Orlene.pdf
The TCR for Orlene has also been released today.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 274
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: Richardson, TX

Re: 2016 TCRs

#42 Postby Iune » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:47 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162016_Otto.pdf

Otto's report is out. The storm was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with a 100 kt landfall in Nicaragua.
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

tatertawt24
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm

Re: 2016 TCRs

#43 Postby tatertawt24 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:58 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162016_Otto.pdf

Otto's report is out. The storm was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane with a 100 kt landfall in Nicaragua.


Not surprising at all. I remember thinking it would be upgraded in the reanalysis as it was making landfall.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1434
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#44 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:02 pm

Yeah I also thought that Otto had a chance of being a three in post-season analysis. That means the number of major hurricanes last season was four.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152016_Newton.pdf

Newton is out too.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115004
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:02 pm

And with the change,two new members nailed the 15/7/4 numbers at our S2K 2016 poll.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3775
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#46 Postby Hammy » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:13 pm

As far as I know this makes 2016 the only year to have three major hurricanes tracked after September 30.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:58 pm

No real surprise on Otto. In fact, since they went with 100 kt at 1200Z (not supported by Recon), an argument could be made for 105 kt at landfall since satellite clearly showed it strengthening right up to landfall. The pressure was likely a bit lower too - I would put it at 970mb. Another change I would personally have made would have been hurricane intensity at 22/1200 and 22/1800.

Otto is only the seventh known November major hurricane (others were a 1912 hurricane, a 1932 hurricane, Kate 1985, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001 and Paloma 2008) - and none were that late.
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 948
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#48 Postby NotoSans » Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:52 am

0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1434
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#49 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:35 pm

So what are your final predictions on the report for Matthew? I assume it will be coming in a matter of weeks.

I think the peak intensity will be the same, the landfall on Haiti will go up to 130 kts, and will probably lower some intensities slightly while Matthew was passing Florida.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:12 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So what are your final predictions on the report for Matthew? I assume it will be coming in a matter of weeks.

I think the peak intensity will be the same, the landfall on Haiti will go up to 130 kts, and will probably lower some intensities slightly while Matthew was passing Florida.


I think they might raise the peak intensity to 145 kt, given the 143 kt SFMR reading (even though the flight level winds didn't support such a high intensity), and I agree the Haiti landfall may go upward - I would go 135 kt (Recon supported 130 kt well before landfall and it appeared to intensify right up to landfall) but not sure if the NHC agrees. The minimum pressure I think will drop some too - I would personally put it at 931mb at Haiti landfall.

I also agree with lowering the intensities off the Florida coast up until SC landfall (65 kt), then data suggests that it likely strengthened a bit off NC. I think another US landfall near Oak Island, NC may also be added.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4256
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#51 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:40 pm

I also agree that Matthew's Haiti landfall will receive a bump up to 130-135 kt. Using an outermost closed isobar of 1009 mb and the 6 kt forward speed, 120 nm average gale radius, and latitude of 16.9*N from NHC Forecast Advisory 24 at 0300Z October 4 with the 934 mb measured by recon, the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney Wind/Pressure Relationship (KZC) outputs a maximum sustained wind velocity of 127 kt, which is in good agreement with the 127 kt SFMR and 142 kt flight-level readings from Recon Mission 18.

Objective measurements such as ADT and SATCON continued to climb on the 4th, leveling off generally between 130-135 kt before landfall. The last VDM prior to landfall at 0439Z reported an eyewall that was still open to the S, but microwave data from before the landfall around 1100Z (pictured below) showed an eyewall that was closed and stalwart, supporting an intensification trend up until landfall. The Dvorak Technique (T6.5) remained a little lower than the rest of objective guidance, but this is generally consistent with previous fixes since October 1.

Image

Image

Using the same 1009 mb outermost closed isobar, 18*N latitude just prior to landfall, and the forward speed of 8 kt and average gale radius of 135 nm from NHC Forecast Advisory 25 at 0900Z October 4, KZC outputs 931 mb for 130 kt and 926 mb for 135 kt. Erring on the conservative side, I'd put the landfall intensity at 130 kt/931 mb. 135 kt could be justified though, considering a CIMSS AMSU estimate of 136 kt at 1049Z October 4. CIMSS AMSU (along with ADT) did commendably during the initial/overall intensity peak on October 1, so it is worth noting.

(I will also be placing this post in the Matthew thread)
1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs (OTTO upgraded to Category 3)

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:57 pm

As for Matthew official land categories, I think it will go down as a Category 1 impact for northeast and southeast Florida (as the dividing line is Cape Canaveral on the east coast), Georgia, South Carolina and (possibly) North Carolina, based on surface observations.

Florida: Hurricane conditions were likely confined to a section from Cocoa Beach to Ormond Beach, near and east of the Intracoastal Waterway. Several stations on Canaveral recorded 65-70 kt sustained winds, and that is likely representative given the good coverage. A few beachside stations in Brevard and Volusia also recorded sustained winds of 60-63 kt, which can probably infer that hurricane winds occurred in a few spots outside the coverage. I doubt that anywhere west of the Intracoastal recorded hurricane conditions.

Georgia: Hurricane conditions were likely confined to Tybee Island. Two observations there confirm winds near to hurricane strength (65 and 62 kt), however nowhere else in the state did such winds occur - most were 50 or less sustained.

South Carolina: There were no observations supporting hurricane intensity in South Carolina, but the coast is poorly sampled. The highest wind I could find was 58 kt at Beaufort, well west of the landfall point, and damage surveys suggest that might be conservative. Georgetown, inland from the landfall point, recorded 56 kt winds. I would say that hurricane conditions likely occurred on Fripp Island and St. Helena Island and perhaps ocean-facing areas on Hilton Head Island, and again along the immediate coast from the northern tip of Isle of Palms to North Inlet (those areas are uninhabited).

North Carolina:
Hurricane conditions were likely confined to parts of the Outer Banks, from Kill Devil Hills to perhaps Cape Lookout. Two observations stick out: 63 kt at Oregon Inlet and 67 kt on a pier at Nags Head (slightly elevated), and given the sampling, an assumption of 65 kt can be made in that area. Duck, just to the north, recorded 58 kt at a slightly low elevation so that confirms just below hurricane winds in that area, making the northern line seem reasonable. The southern extent is a bit more uncertain given the lack of observations, but no stations near Wilmington recorded anything near hurricane intensity. The only sticking point might be that those observations were all in the 0700Z-0900Z time frame on October 9, and depending on what the NHC decides, it may be after the post-tropical transition.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3775
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs

#53 Postby Hammy » Sat Feb 04, 2017 6:47 pm

I'm wondering what track changes and possible extensions are in store for Lisa given the report is coming out later than Otto, despite occurring almost two months earlier.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4256
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:45 am

The non-Matthew/Nicole report I'm curious about is Blas. I'm somewhat surprised to still see nothing with that one.
1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:31 pm

I believe the record for the latest one came out was Erin in 2007, and that was almost certainly due to internal disputes over its status and structure.
0 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: 2016 TCRs

#56 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:41 pm

Blas, Howard, Roslyn, Seymour, Lisa, Matthew and Nicole are the only ones left
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4256
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2016 TCRs

#57 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:21 am

Ulika will have an NHC report too. That one may be trick though with multiple NHC/CPHC crossovers.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6055
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2016 TCRs

#58 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:31 pm

The Matthew report will probably come out just before the 2017 hurricane season if I'm guessing
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs

#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:27 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The Matthew report will probably come out just before the 2017 hurricane season if I'm guessing


I doubt it would be that long. I'd guess probably by early March.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27414
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2016 TCRs

#60 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:28 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Ulika will have an NHC report too. That one may be trick though with multiple NHC/CPHC crossovers.


Yeah I think that will be one of the last ones. It will need to be done with the NHC and CPHC together as it crossed 140 three times.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, Kingarabian, TheStormExpert, TorSkk and 11 guests