NHC has a tons of surprise today - Patricia TCR, and also reanalysis of the 1959 Mexico Hurricane.
The landfall intensity has been lowered to 120 kt, down from 140 kt.
It is also interesting to note that the reanalysis is carried out by iCyclone members.
Press release:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160204_p ... alysis.pdf
Reanalysis Report:
http://icyclone.com/upload/now/feb_2016 ... _FINAL.pdf
Re-analysis of the 1959 Manzanillo Mexio Hurricane Completed
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
NotoSans
- Category 5
- Posts: 1366
- Age: 24
- Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re-analysis of the 1959 Manzanillo Mexio Hurricane Completed
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re-analysis of the 1959 Manzanillo Mexio Hurricane Completed
That was well known for a while, but accurate (even 120 kt might be a bit generous given the 955 pressure and slow movement, but they decided to blend the observatory reading which was the basis for the original Cat 5; a case could be made for an intensity as low as 110 kt).
It also corrected many errors in the classification, including being declared extratropical over southern Mexico (which is unrealistic). Even in late October, it is very rare for a system to become ET below 25N latitude.
It also corrected many errors in the classification, including being declared extratropical over southern Mexico (which is unrealistic). Even in late October, it is very rare for a system to become ET below 25N latitude.
0 likes