Alyono wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Ntxw wrote:Years like 2005 tends to build up with prior years being really active as well. Not to say mother nature can't clamp down with a spectacular season among inactive ones. We can only go by statistics from history as a guidance. The atmosphere doesn't have a memory, it doesn't remember what happened last year or the year before or any year before that. It's constant flow acting and reacting to what is going on at the present towards a balance. Otherwise Florida and the US would not have been given so much good fortune for as long as it has. Each season is a clean slate.
Well IMO if it wasn't for the Strong El Niño creating such a hostile Caribbean with lashing wind shear(which killed several of the storms last season) last season Erika could have been a game changing storm or hurricane for Florida.
Once again Florida lucked out and Erika dissipated in the North-Central Caribbean due to relentless shear.
Is this a sign of things to come concerning possible threats to Florida in the coming seasons? It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict such a thing but one has to wonder if the steering pattern in the coming season(s) could allow for more threats coming at Florida.
Forget Erika. Without the shear, Danny probably would have been a cat 5 plowing through the Caribbean
As it was, Danny somehow became a strong Cat 3 in a strong El Nino year in the deep tropics...something that isn't supposed to happen.
