Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5608
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:28 am

1985 Gloria: had it stayed off of eastern North Carolina ith could have been a 100mph+ hurricane for the NEUS
1985 Kate: Had it not hit Cuba I personally think it would have had a chance at cat5 strength and been a major hurricane landfall in the NW peninsula of Florida instead of a low end cat2
2011 Irene: had it stayed offshore it would have been a hurricane in the NEUS
2004 Charley: had it not gone up through Cuba it would have been a definate cat 5 landfall
1998 Georges: had it been 50 mile farther north it also would have been a major US landfal
1979 David: once again if it had gone a little farther west away from hispaniola it would have been stronger for Florida than it was
2008 Fay: had all the potential in the world but hit every landmass it could
1989 Hugo: had Hugo been about 50miles farther north im thinking it could of been a cat5 landfall instead of a 4

name ones you guys think fit in this category of hurricane that could have been more than what they were

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#2 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:14 am

Hurricaneman wrote:1985 Gloria: had it stayed off of eastern North Carolina ith could have been a 100mph+ hurricane for the NEUS
1985 Kate: Had it not hit Cuba I personally think it would have had a chance at cat5 strength and been a major hurricane landfall in the NW peninsula of Florida instead of a low end cat2
2011 Irene: had it stayed offshore it would have been a hurricane in the NEUS
2004 Charley: had it not gone up through Cuba it would have been a definate cat 5 landfall
1998 Georges: had it been 50 mile farther north it also would have been a major US landfal
1979 David: once again if it had gone a little farther west away from hispaniola it would have been stronger for Florida than it was
2008 Fay: had all the potential in the world but hit every landmass it could
1989 Hugo: had Hugo been about 50miles farther north im thinking it could of been a cat5 landfall instead of a 4

name ones you guys think fit in this category of hurricane that could have been more than what they were

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Gloria did stay offshore. It only had 105 mph winds at NC. No way it only loses 5 mph heading to New England
Kate occurred in November. It was not becoming a cat 5 that far north. MAYBE low end cat 4. Still would have hit as a cat 2 though
Irene. Maybe, but maybe not
Charley. You cannot make that claim. That intensification was all trough enhancement. Plus, it didn't really weaken over Cuba
Georges and David. Of course if they missed Hispañiola
Fay: It's issue was taking so long to organize
Hugo. 50 miles wouldn't have made a difference
1 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2461
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#3 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:24 am

Hurricane Katrina 2005(South Florida): as devastating as Katrina was for the Gulf coast, she was fairly weak in Southern Florida. Had Katrina spent another 18-24 hours over water I think we would have seen a Cat 3 coming into South Florida.

Hurricane Frances 2004: If Frances had not encountered wind shear in the Bahamas I think we would have seen a Cat 4 at landfall.

Hurricane Wilma 2005: Had Wilma not spent 24 hours over the Yucatan we probably would have seen a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall in South Florida.

Hurricane Ike 2008: Had Ike not traveled the spine of Cuba we would have seen a Cat 4 or 5 coming into Texas.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#4 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:10 pm

re Ike:

Had it not made a last minute wobble, it would have hit southern Galveston. Galveston likely would have looked like Bolivar. In addition, the peak surge would have went up the Houston Ship Channel

Most refineries likely would have been under water leading to no oil

I'd probably be in Indonesia now had that happened due to the economic fallout
0 likes   

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 731
Age: 18
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: Oak Hill, TX (Southwest Austin)
Contact:

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#5 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:50 pm

Not a hurricane, but Tropical Storm Don, at one point, was expected to make landfall on Southern Texas as a 50 knot tropical storm and help a bit with the severe drought across the area in July 2011. As it so happens, the Texas High Pressure System (the 'Death' ridge) caused Don to "literally evaporate" as stated in the famous words of Don's last advisory discussion, and in the end, Don dropped only a few hundredths of an inch in South Texas, save for a very small area around Harlingen and South Padre Island that saw a few tenths and maybe over an inch in some localized areas.
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service/RSMC.
- Stop by and chat on Storm2K's IRC channel (#storm2k on irc.esper.net, or click here)

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28283
Age: 66
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#6 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 05, 2016 3:13 pm

Alyono wrote:re Ike:

Had it not made a last minute wobble, it would have hit southern Galveston. Galveston likely would have looked like Bolivar. In addition, the peak surge would have went up the Houston Ship Channel

Most refineries likely would have been under water leading to no oil

I'd probably be in Indonesia now had that happened due to the economic fallout

Pretty much took the words right off my fingertips. If it had not madde that last minute wobble it would have been over water for a couple more hours at least. I think Ike would have definitely been a major CAT3 at landfall also. I really don't even want to think about what it would have been like had he landfalled where it was originally thought on W. Galveston Island. The US would still be recovering from the economic impact of a strike like that! Sadly little if anything has been done to change the outcome you describe when(not if)we get another hit by a storm like Ike that comes in over W. Galveston Island or the Freeport area.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#7 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:41 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Alyono wrote:re Ike:

Had it not made a last minute wobble, it would have hit southern Galveston. Galveston likely would have looked like Bolivar. In addition, the peak surge would have went up the Houston Ship Channel

Most refineries likely would have been under water leading to no oil

I'd probably be in Indonesia now had that happened due to the economic fallout

Pretty much took the words right off my fingertips. If it had not madde that last minute wobble it would have been over water for a couple more hours at least. I think Ike would have definitely been a major CAT3 at landfall also. I really don't even want to think about what it would have been like had he landfalled where it was originally thought on W. Galveston Island. The US would still be recovering from the economic impact of a strike like that! Sadly little if anything has been done to change the outcome you describe when(not if)we get another hit by a storm like Ike that comes in over W. Galveston Island or the Freeport area.


It also probably would have been a repeat of the 1900 hurricane as there were so many who didn't evacuate
0 likes   

J_J99
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 42
Age: 18
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:43 pm
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#8 Postby J_J99 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:44 am

Bret 1999- If it wouldve just wobbled down to Corpus Christi, man we would be still be talking about it to this day.

Sandy 2012- as devastating as Sandy was, if the wind shear was less in the Bahamas which was when it started transitioning, it could have been way more devastating.

Katrina 2005- The storm weakened rapidly in 6 hours from a 175 mph Category 5 to a 130 mph Borderline Cat 3/4 hurricane(I still say it was a very low end Cat 4 at landfall in Grand Isle, no reliable wind reports to back that up, but I believe that is what happened). If the storm had not begun an eyewall replacement cycle right before landfall, we would not just be talking about the surge, the winds would have been just as devastating, possibly much more destruction possibly tens of billions more in damage if it had made landfall as a Cat5/High End Cat 4, more deaths because people were out in the hurricane because of the levees breaching and if it had not made that last second right wobble, New Orleans could have been almost completely destroyed.

Ike 2008- If it would have stayed over water for maybe two or three more hours, the storm would have been a major hurricane, as it was just getting its act together right around landfall in Texas after the whole Cuba shabang.

Rita 2005- this storm could have been devastating if it would have made landfall 50 miles west, Houston really dodged a bullet with that one!

Wilma 2005- Had it not been stalled over the Yucatan Peninsula for three days, this could have been a Cat 4 at landfall.

Hurricane Earl 2010- This one could have brought serious damage to the NE if it was just 50 miles west.

Hurricane Dennis 2005- If this storm would have slowed down a lot more, it would have been much more damaging.

Hurricane Issac- A cat 1 cause levee breaches in Plaqumines Parish, if this storm would have been organized by the time it was in the gulf, it could have been a cat 2 or cat 3.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#9 Postby Alyono » Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:13 am

re Isaac

Had it not have been for Katrina, that one would have killed thousands. The surge was just as high as Katrina. Katrina caused the levees to be strengthened.

In a way, Katrina may have saved thousands of lives
0 likes   

J_J99
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 42
Age: 18
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:43 pm
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#10 Postby J_J99 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:26 am

Isnt that ironic, dont you think? ^
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

StormClouds63
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Age: 54
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 am
Location: Southwest Louisiana

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#11 Postby StormClouds63 » Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:19 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5784
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:36 pm

I agree about Rita in 2005. The Houston and Galveston metro areas should be feeling forever grateful that Rita made just the slightest turn to the right or else they would have had potential widespread devastation in that region. Plus an eyewall replacement cycle, cooler shelf waters off the TX/LA coast at that time, and a modest increase in wind shear weakened Rita.down to Cat 3 just before landfall.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2017-18 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4863
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:45 pm

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ernesto_(2006)

Was forecast to be at least a formidable Cat.1 hurricane for South Florida but due to land interactions with most of the Greater Antilles(especially Eastern Cuba) and interactions with an ULL in the Bahamas that sheared it some it never got it's act together. That storm though was the costliest storm of the 2006 season which was below average in activity due to a Moderate El Niño. I also believe if not for the Greater Antilles and the ULL in the Bahamas at the time it could have been a much more significant impact for South Florida which did not need YET ANOTHER storm after the dreaded 2004 and 2005 seasons.

The storm finally got it's act together somewhat upon final landfall in SE North Carolina with max winds of 70mph, after only being barely a minimal 40mph TS for South Florida that weakened to a TD just after landfall.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4863
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:56 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Hurricane Katrina 2005(South Florida): as devastating as Katrina was for the Gulf coast, she was fairly weak in Southern Florida. Had Katrina spent another 18-24 hours over water I think we would have seen a Cat 3 coming into South Florida.

Hurricane Frances 2004: If Frances had not encountered wind shear in the Bahamas I think we would have seen a Cat 4 at landfall.

Hurricane Wilma 2005: Had Wilma not spent 24 hours over the Yucatan we probably would have seen a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall in South Florida.

Hurricane Ike 2008: Had Ike not traveled the spine of Cuba we would have seen a Cat 4 or 5 coming into Texas.

I could just imagine how devastating Frances would have been if it was a Cat.4 at landfall vs. Cat.2 with such painfully slow movement it took across the state. This was the first Hurricane I've ever experienced and let's just say even a good 50 miles or so south of landfall point here in NE Palm Beach County we still had some pretty decent impacts for a good nearly 24hrs. I was only 10 at the time and I still remember this storm like it was yesterday! It's what sparked my interest in hurricanes. Then there was Jeanne EXACTLY 3 weeks later which was nearly a carbon copy. :roll:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
MGC
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5340
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#15 Postby MGC » Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:20 pm

Had Katrina hit just west of New Orleans the surge that Mississippi got would have impacted SE Louisiana. Thousands more would have died, perhaps approaching the numbers that died in Galveston in 1900......MGC
0 likes   

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2086
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#16 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:07 pm

Like others have already said, katrina, but will also add hurricanes Lili and Gustav. Neither could overcome the hostile conditions of the central/ northern Gulf.

Thought of two more. I know georges was already mentioned but doing so due to the fact it was making a beeline in the worst possible scenario for new Orleans and it turned north at the last minute into MS instead, also due to the fact DR and Cuba shredded him. And Andrew as well for us in LA due to the fact he was never ever to recover after peaking before landfall on Florida and a shell of his former self upon making landfall over here.
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1279
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#17 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:21 am

re: Hugo, this is not the first time I've heard people thinking it would have been a Cat 5. I'm wondering where this comes from.
Hugo was forecast at one point to be an East Coast runner, so it could have been an 1821 repeat.

on the rest of the initial list only one I agree with is Fay. Had potential, didn't make it.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4809
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#18 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:53 am

Lili 2002 was forecast to make landfall as a cat 4 with 135mph winds coming through the heart of Lafayette. Miraculously she weakened rapidly and we just experienced cat 1 gusts. That storm would have altered the course of history for this area.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#19 Postby Alyono » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:11 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Like others have already said, katrina, but will also add hurricanes Lili and Gustav. Neither could overcome the hostile conditions of the central/ northern Gulf.

Thought of two more. I know georges was already mentioned but doing so due to the fact it was making a beeline in the worst possible scenario for new Orleans and it turned north at the last minute into MS instead, also due to the fact DR and Cuba shredded him. And Andrew as well for us in LA due to the fact he was never ever to recover after peaking before landfall on Florida and a shell of his former self upon making landfall over here.


Andrew did recover. It weakened just before landfall because it nearly stalled half on shore
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5013
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#20 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:37 pm



I remember Isidore forecast had it going to New Orleans as a Category 3/4 hurricane. However, it lingered over Yucatan Peninsula and made landfall as a large tropical storm. Think about Isidore hitting New Orleans area as a full fledge Category 4 hurricane. :eek:

There is also Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. The forecast had it hitting either Houston to New Orleans. Thankfully, it stayed south into Mexico.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 1900hurricane, Kazmit and 19 guests