Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

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tatertawt24
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#21 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Apr 09, 2016 12:55 am

I'd say pretty much every storm to hit the US could have been worse than what it was, no? Even Andrew had that ERC that paused the RI for awhile. At the rate he was strengthening before and after that ERC near the Bahamas (even seeming to intensify a little bit AFTER his FL landfall), if he had just kept strengthening with no interruption, it would have been 1935 2.0.

I'd say 1935 MIGHT have been one that delivered its maximum potential. It was between so many landmasses that the RI was bound to get interrupted by land interaction with something. I guess it could have veered right a little bit and struck somewhere in the Florida mainland at max intensity.

I don't know if any of the big Northern Gulf storms count because I'm convinced there's something about the n. gulf that makes hurricanes collapse. The way Katrina unraveled was unbelievable.

But Ike definitely would have been a major landfall if he had just stayed over water a tiny bit longer. The structure that he was beginning to take at landfall was terrifying. That huuuge circulation and big eye.

I have trouble believing Hugo could have been any stronger. Everyone says he strengthened up until landfall but in every satellite picture I've seen he looked like he was deteriorating.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#22 Postby beoumont » Sat Apr 09, 2016 3:46 am

Hurricaneman stated: 1985 Kate: Had it not hit Cuba I personally think it would have had a chance at cat5 strength and been a major hurricane landfall in the NW peninsula of Florida instead of a low end cat2


The water temperature in the N. Gulf near landfall was 22 C (71.6 F) ; so no major hurricane potential at landfall. It was Nov. 21st. The eye was still well formed at landfall, as can be seen in the video (URL of video below), but the cloud tops in the wallcloud were in the 20,000 - 25,000 ft. level due to the cool surface and mid level conditions. The video was shot at Mexico Beach and Cape San Blas, FL.

https://youtu.be/RK9v1_AaFtg
*********************************************************
Hurricane Ike had over 800 miles of warm Gulf waters to intersify much greater then he did; other factors just did not line up. Still, substantial surge inundated large areas to the east of eyefall due to the extended period of onshore flow from over the open ocean.
Last edited by beoumont on Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#23 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Apr 09, 2016 2:33 pm

[quote]
I don't know if any of the big Northern Gulf storms count because I'm convinced there's something about the n. gulf that makes hurricanes collapse. The way Katrina unraveled was unbelievable./quote]

I agree with this 100% Hurricanes down thru invests never seem to live up to their potential and materialize as forecast.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#24 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:31 pm

If Wilma had wobbled to the south prior to landfall in Florida, the worst of the surge would have impacted the Keys. Remember, most in the Keys did NOT evacuate.

On the other hand, wasn't Wilma's impact in Florida much worse than expected? Especially on Florida's east coast? Wasn't Wilma expected to make landfall as probably a borderline Category 1-2 due to shear and dry air in the Gulf?

If Jeanne had been over water for a few more hours before making landfall, she probably would've been a Category 4.

Claudette in 2003 looked like she was starting to ramp up in intensity as she was making landfall. I think she could have been a Category 3 if she had some more time over water. That would have been disastrous because I don't think evacuation orders had been given for Claudette.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#25 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:13 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:If Wilma had wobbled to the south prior to landfall in Florida, the worst of the surge would have impacted the Keys. Remember, most in the Keys did NOT evacuate.

On the other hand, wasn't Wilma's impact in Florida much worse than expected? Especially on Florida's east coast? Wasn't Wilma expected to make landfall as probably a borderline Category 1-2 due to shear and dry air in the Gulf?

If Jeanne had been over water for a few more hours before making landfall, she probably would've been a Category 4.

Claudette in 2003 looked like she was starting to ramp up in intensity as she was making landfall. I think she could have been a Category 3 if she had some more time over water. That would have been disastrous because I don't think evacuation orders had been given for Claudette.

Yes Wilma was only forecast to make landfall in SW Florida as a upper-end Cat.1/lower-end Cat.2 before quickly crossing the state and exiting the East Coast has probably a weak Cat.1 or strong TS. Turns out it was a strong Cat.2 when impacting Palm Beach County and the backside was worse the frontside. For a hurricane that seemed to have only lasted 2-4 hrs. it was BAD, in some cases worse than Frances & Jeanne.

BTW, my pro pic is a radar loop of Wilma crossing the eastern half of FL and exiting the East Coast at around Jupiter, FL.

Anyways, in 2005 basically everything that could go right towards intensification of these storms happened. Unfortunately it was the PERFECT season for storms to brew and intensify!
:double:

Jeanne on the other hand was quite bad even down in NE Palm Beach County where we had already experienced Frances exactly 3 weeks prior. I wouldn't have been surprised if Jeanne did reach Cat.4 if it had just several more hours over water. Unlike Frances wind shear was not an issue when making it's closest approach through the Bahamas.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#26 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Apr 10, 2016 1:52 pm

Dolly 2008 - Had it spent more time over water, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:48 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:1985 Gloria: had it stayed off of eastern North Carolina ith could have been a 100mph+ hurricane for the NEUS
1985 Kate: Had it not hit Cuba I personally think it would have had a chance at cat5 strength and been a major hurricane landfall in the NW peninsula of Florida instead of a low end cat2
2011 Irene: had it stayed offshore it would have been a hurricane in the NEUS
2004 Charley: had it not gone up through Cuba it would have been a definate cat 5 landfall
1998 Georges: had it been 50 mile farther north it also would have been a major US landfal
1979 David: once again if it had gone a little farther west away from hispaniola it would have been stronger for Florida than it was
2008 Fay: had all the potential in the world but hit every landmass it could
1989 Hugo: had Hugo been about 50miles farther north im thinking it could of been a cat5 landfall instead of a 4

name ones you guys think fit in this category of hurricane that could have been more than what they were

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In most cases I disagree.

Gloria: Land was not a hinderance, since it mostly went over marshes and sand barriers. Shear and cooler water was more of an issue. So probably not any real difference.
Kate: I think it might have reached Cat 4, but given that it was late November, it likely would have weakened more rapidly before landfall even if it was stronger initially.
Irene: Same as Gloria
Charley: Agreed
Georges: Not sure. It wasn't really strengthening at landfall at all, so it might have actually weakened a bit.
David: Agreed, it was really torn up from Hispaniola
Fay: Yes in some respects, but even when over water it was struggling.
Hugo: Probably not, it would have spent just as much time over the Gulf Stream either way.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:58 pm

Some I can think of:

Humberto 2007 - Another 6 hours over water and it could have become a major hurricane hitting an unprepared area at dawn

Joaquin 2015 - Had it not unexpectedly become a monster approaching the Bahamas and buying time due to a weak deep-layer flow, the mid-level flow would have sent it to the mid-Atlantic

Katrina 2005 (1st landfall) - It was really ramping up as it was coming into Florida - a few more hours and a Cat 2 landfall, another 12 hours and a major hurricane, with South Florida clearly unprepared

Emily 1993 - If not for an incoming trough, it would have gone right into the VA Tidewater as a major hurricane from the worst possible angle

Andrew 1992 - As bad as it was, a track 15 miles farther north sends the eyewall right over downtown Miami - and the same track into Louisiana brings it very close to New Orleans...
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#29 Postby tatertawt24 » Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Some I can think of:

Humberto 2007 - Another 6 hours over water and it could have become a major hurricane hitting an unprepared area at dawn.


Humberto really gave people an idea of a nightmare scenario. Explosively intensifying just before landfall, while everybody is sleeping.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#30 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:23 am

Hugo....had it went further north it would of struck Myrtle Beach. Further south and it would of hit Charleston. Dodged a bullet there for the most part.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#31 Postby MGC » Mon Apr 11, 2016 4:33 pm

Hugo: Indeed, Charleston was very lucky to be on the "weak" side of Hugo. Imagine that surge headed up into Charleston Harbor? Not to mention Cat-4 winds......MGC
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#32 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:48 pm

Put Andrew 10 miles north then we're talking Miami wiped off the map so there was a little luck there plus a ERC in the Bahamas which may have kept this from being even more intense
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#33 Postby Alyono » Mon Apr 18, 2016 10:13 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Put Andrew 10 miles north then we're talking Miami wiped off the map so there was a little luck there plus a ERC in the Bahamas which may have kept this from being even more intense


The EWRC in the Bahamas made things worse. It allowed Andrew time to regain its intensity before it hit Florida

As for the distance to the north, I think it may have needed to be 20 miles north. That core was quite small (though large compared to Charley)

Speaking of Charley, that is one that could have been MUCH worse. It weakened far faster than forecast due to very strong shear after landfall. As a result, Orlando received a category 1 instead of a category 3
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#34 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:35 am

Alyono wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Put Andrew 10 miles north then we're talking Miami wiped off the map so there was a little luck there plus a ERC in the Bahamas which may have kept this from being even more intense


The EWRC in the Bahamas made things worse. It allowed Andrew time to regain its intensity before it hit Florida

As for the distance to the north, I think it may have needed to be 20 miles north. That core was quite small (though large compared to Charley)

Speaking of Charley, that is one that could have been MUCH worse. It weakened far faster than forecast due to very strong shear after landfall. As a result, Orlando received a category 1 instead of a category 3


I agree with Alyono. Had Andrew been 20 miles further north landfall would have been in Miami Beach. This would have brought much stronger winds into the Ft.Lauderdale area as well.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#35 Postby docjoe » Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:24 pm

if I remember correctly dennis in 2005 was a cat 4 at 145MPH just four hours or so
before landfall in Santa Rosa County. It was bad here but could have been much worse
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 18, 2016 3:56 pm

I think this thread is a good place to post this graphic of all formations that made landfall as Hurricanes in the U.S since 1878. Courtesy from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

Image
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#37 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed May 18, 2016 4:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think this thread is a good place to post this graphic of all formations that made landfall as Hurricanes in the U.S since 1878. Courtesy from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

Image


This shows the majority of storms that hit the United States form outside the MDR. Good map there and thanks.
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#38 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 18, 2016 4:47 pm

:uarrow: Other than being the Tropical Atlantic why do many call it the Main Development Region?
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#39 Postby Alyono » Wed May 18, 2016 4:48 pm

one definition of the MDR includes the Caribbean
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Re: Hurricanes that had more potential than they delivered in the US

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 18, 2016 5:23 pm

You can also notice the very few formations in the EastCentral Caribbean and that is because the strong trade winds in the area keep things from forming in that region.
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