Big Ones of 2016

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread for this yet. But who do you guys think will be the big storms of 2016?

Naming list:
Alex (already used)
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

[hcane27]

none of the above

[Andrew92]

I always seem to have nasty vibes with Danielle. While I don't think season will be crazy active, I do think one big hurricane could hit the US this year, probably with that name. Nothing else really sticks out to me at all in the Atlantic.

But thinking outside the box now! I am also going with, wait for it.....Akoni and Roslyn as big ones as well in the Western Hemisphere. Yes, I am concerned about Hawaii's chances of getting hit, and one trend with the analogs I have for this year (1959, 1983, and 1992) is a major hitting Mexico in October each time. Tina wouldn't surprise me either, I must say, but leaning Roslyn for now.

-Andrew92

[tatertawt24]

Fiona seems ominous, maybe because it's a three-syllable female name that ends with a, but that's what I'm going with.

Our luck, it'll be an ugly name like Hermine.

[pgoss11]

I second Fiona. Sounds like a good name for a Cat 3

[Hurricaneman]

Majors in caps

Alex: Done

Bonnie: June 5th Central Atlantic 45mph

Colin: Froms July31st in the eastern Caribbean and goes straight west making landfall in Belieze as a 100mph hurricane on August 3rd

Danielle: Forms just off the Cape Verdes on August 15th and makes landfall in the Cape verdes as a 50mph tropical storm the same day and strengthens to peak strength on August 17th as a 70mph tropical storm

EARL: Forms east of the Bahamas on August 18th and heads west hitting Melbourne on August 19th as a 70mph TS and continues to head west turning towards the north hitting near Mobile on August 22 as a 120mph Hurricane

Fiona: Forms between Bermuda and the east coast August 21st and peaks at 65mph the same day and hits around Buzzards bay August 22nd as a 45mph tropical storm

Gaston: Forms North of Puerto Rico on August 30th and peaks as a 65mph tropical storm as its heading twards extratropical

Hermine: Forms Halfway between the lesser antilles and the Cape Verdes on September 2nd and hits the NE lesser antilles as a 100mph hurricane but dies over Hispaniola

IAN: September 5th forms from a tropical wave near the lesser antilles and heads west turning towards the NW and makes landfall on the island of Cozumel as a 140mph hurricane September 11th and starts to head more north peaking at 165mph in the central GOM September 12th and makes landfall near Destin on September 13th as a 125mph hurricane

JULIA: Forms from a front off the east coast on September 21st and peaks at 120mph on September 24th off the OBX and heads NE out to sea

Karl: Forms off a trough in the GOM September 22nd heads east and makes landfall in Tampa as a 45mph TS September 23rd

Lisa: Forms from a tropical wave near the Cape Verdes on September 25th and heads NW peaking at 60mph september 28th

MATTHEW: Forms in the eastern Caribbean September 30th heads west and landfalls in Nicaragua as a 145mph hurricane October 4th
front
Nicole: Froms from a front on October 3rd and transitions to subtropical on October 5th as a 45mph STS and turns fully tropical and peaks at the same time as a 60mph tropical storm October 6th

Otto: forms in the western Caribbean October 7th and runs into Nicaragua as a 45mph Tropical storm 6 hours later

PAULA: Forms in the western Caribbean October 15th and peaks at 180mph October 18th and goes through the Yucatan channeland makes landfall as a 130mph hurricane in Naples on October 20th

Richard: Forms in the western Caribbean November 2nd and makes landfall in Belieze as a 60mph TS on November 4th

Numbers 17\8\5

might actually go with these numbers in the May 15 update in the poll if the cool area int the eastern EPAC MDR expands and the ENSO1\2 get cooler as that would promote Caribbean activity

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

For the heck of it I would go with Ian since the "I" letter storm seems to almost in every year spell some sort of trouble. For some reason though I think we may struggle a little to get very far down the list real fast so it may be October or November by the time we get to the letter "I".

Also if this years "I" letter storm were to get retired it would be the 3rd "I" letter storm on this particular list of storms to get retired in a row, following Igor(2010), and Ivan(2004).

[CaliforniaResident]

Very similarly to 2004 and 2005, I'm predicting multiple high impact landfalls.
The granddaddy of them all for this season: Gaston
The other high impact landfalls will be: Hermine, Lisa, Otto, and Walter.

[CFLHurricane]

Gaston sounds pretty insidious to me and is perfectly olaced in the alphabet for the peak season.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my map - based on a 13/5/2 rest of season (14/6/2 including Alex):



TS Bonnie: May 24-26 - 45 kt / 1005mb
* Landfall - Louisiana: May 25, 45 kt / 1005mb
TS Colin: July 28-August 2 - 60 kt / 995mb
MH Danielle: August 9-16 - 105 kt / 955mb
* Landfall - Florida : August 10 - 30 kt / 1007mb
* Landfall - Nova Scotia: August 14 - 100 kt / 957mb
* Landfall - Newfoundland: August 15 - 70 kt / 972mb
TS Earl: August 22-26 - 55 kt / 998mb
H Fiona: August 24-29 - 70 kt / 990mb
* Landfall - Yucatan : August 26 - 55 kt / 997mb
* Landfall - Louisiana: August 28 - 70 kt / 990mb
TS Gaston: September 1-2 - 35 kt / 1006mb (not shown, briefly almost on exact track of Earl)
TS Hermine: September 15-18 - 55 kt / 982mb
H Ian: September 17-October 1 - 95 kt / 956mb (does not show end of track, makes landfall on Iberian Peninsula)
* Landfall - Haiti: September 19 - 65 kt / 991mb
* Landfall - Cuba: September 20 - 45 kt / 998mb
* Landfall - Bahamas: September 21 - 45 kt / 995mb
* Landfall - Azores: September 29- 75 kt / 980mb
* Landfall - Spain: October 1 - 65 kt / 985mb
TS Julia: September 25-27 - 40 kt / 1004mb
TS Karl: October 5-8 - 50 kt / 1001mb
* Landfall - Martinique: October 5 - 30 kt / 1011mb
* Landfall - St. Croix: October 7 - 40 kt / 1006mb
H Lisa: October 15-23 - 85 kt / 960mb
MH Matthew: October 26-November 8 - 125 kt / 931mb
* Landfall - Panama: October 31 - 85 kt / 979mb
* Landfall - Cayman Islands: November 4 - 105 kt / 949mb
* Landfall - Cuba (Isle of Youth): November 4 - 125 kt / 931mb
* Landfall - Cuba (mainland): November 5 - 115 kt / 939mb
* Landfall - Florida: November 6 - 95 kt / 958mb
TS Nicole: November 22-25 - 50 kt / 988mb

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ian and it will strike the US as a category 4.

[HurricaneRyan]

Seems like Danielle, Ian and Matthew are seen as more of the big ones for 2016 based on the general consensus

Of those three names, Danielle would be my closest bet. I see Ian as being more of a fish storm ala Isaac 2000

[AnnularCane]

I'm thinking Fiona and Gaston, and possibly Julia.

It was tempting to go with the I storm, but maybe having Alex in January might have skewed things a bit.

[galaxy401]

Fiona and Julia could be the bad ones.

[bg1]

I actually made a hypothetical season video, link below, or you can just read what happens below the link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVWlKVvz8jE

----------
TS Bonnie (June 25-29, 4.25 days)- 50 kt /60 mph

Forms in Gulf from frontal boundary. Heads NE and makes landfall on the Fla/Ala border June 27th at 12pm at peak intensity.


TD 3 (July 13-16, 3.00 days)- 30 kt / 35 mph

Extratropical depression that transitions off Fla. east coast. Heads slowly NE and dissipates E of Outer Banks.


TS Colin (July 21-27, 5.5 days)- 60 kt / 70 mph

TW develops between Yucatan and Jamaica. Heads WNW into Yucatan early July 23rd, emerging later into Gulf. Reaches peak before giving much-needed rains to Corpus Christi and surrounding areas, landfalling at 45 kt / 50 mph.


Hurricane Danielle (August 3-11, 7.75 days)- 75 kt / 85 mph, Category 1

Forms in NW portion of MDR. Looks to impact Fla as a Cat 2 but recurves E of Bahamas. Turns ET just S of Cape Race.

Lasts another 7.00 days as it impacts Portugal, Spain, UK, Ireland with 50 kt / 60 mph winds.


TD 6 (August 10-20, 10.00 days) 30 kt / 35 mph

Yeah, that's right, 10 days or 40 advisories... of a depression. This pathetic MDR storm struggles with one thing or another as well as a fast low-level flow, heading W all the way into the Honduras/Nicaragua border August 19th. Becomes the longest-lived depression at least since 1979 (and I have suspicions that a lot of those depressions in the 1970s would be considered invests today).


Hurricane Earl (August 16-21, 5.00 days)- 85 kt /100 mph, Category 2

Forms in Gulf from a front. Heads straight W toward TX before turning due N, then back NW into LA/TX border at peak.


TS Fiona (August 26- Sept 2, 6.25 days)- 55 kt / 65 mph

TD forms and immediately covers the Yucatan. Enters the Gulf, heads NE into Tampa (!) with 40 kt winds. Moving NNE, briefly re-enters the Atlantic, strengthening rather quickly before a Charleston landfall at peak Sept 1. Turns ET right after emerging over water S of NJ.

Lasts another 1.25 days, moving NE and dissipating S of Nova Scotia.


Hurricane Gaston (Sept 2-12, 10.00 days)- 135 kt / 155 mph, Category 4

Unlike certain other MDR cyclones which shall not be named (and wasn't :p), this utilized its 10 days well. Rapidly strengthened from formation into Cat 4 in just
30 hours, and to 155 mph 12 hours later. It looked poised to become the first Cat 5 since Felix 2007 and break its record of fastest to Cat 5 (51 hours), but can not get the straight 7.0 ADT ratings. Ends up peaking at 155 mph like Gaston 2008, Igor 2010, and Joaquin 2015 (seriously, why are Atlantic hurricanes hitting this arbitrary ceiling), but holds it for 72 hours (12 advisories!), recurving E of Lesser Antillies. It would hold Cat 4 for a total of 5.25 days.

Becomes ET between Newfoundland and Ireland. Lives another 3.75 days as it heads NE and slows down N of Ireland with 65 kt / 75 mph winds. Bends NW toward Iceland a bit weaker before turning S and dissipating.


TS Hermine (Sept 10-16, 6.25 days)- 50 kt / 60 mph

Impacts Cape Verde as TD 10 but struggles to develop much further as it moves generally WNW. Gives out NE of Lesser Antillies.


Hurricane Ian (Sept 13-18, 4.25 days) 90 kt / 100 mph, Category 2

**A side note before I begin: even though I have not typed the two words together yet, every time I capitalize "hurricane", my keyboard suggests to follow it with "Katrina". Same thing with "Diana" for "Princess".**

Anyway, an unusually blustery TW finally closes off a circulation S of Jamaica with reliable 67 kt winds, thus making the first time a storm skipped TS status. Reaches peak before weakening to 70 kts/ 80 mph at landfall on the Mexico/Belize border. Emerges as 35 kt storm in BOC early Sept 17 but soon dissipates.


Hurricane Julia (Sept 17-Oct 2, 15.00 days)- 110 kt / 125 mph, Category 3

Develops a few hundred miles SSW of Cape Verde. Two days later, is a Category 2, 100 mph storm but runs into unfavorable conditions as it heads NNW, weakening down to 75 mph late Sept 22. Heads through the northernmost Antilles before suddenly deepening into a Cat 3 120 miles NE of PR. Peaks, heads toward Bahamas, but recurve just E of them late Sept 27, becoming increasingly influenced by a very powerful flow.

This flow would accelerate Julia greatly. Still a 105 kt / 120 mph storm at 39.4 N early Sept 30, and struck Sable Island, Nova Scotia (43.7 N) as a 105 mph storm 12 hours later and Newfoundland 6 hours later at 100 mph. At this time Julia was traveling 75 mph, making the first recorded tropical landfall on Greenland Oct 1st as an 80 mph hurricane. Seven hours later, the NHC actually had to write an advisory on a tropical system within the Arctic Circle at 68 N while still over Greenland!

Julia finally completed ET transition as it slowed and turned toward the E at 71.1 N. It lasted another 3.00 days and was able to visit Svalbard at 77.2 N before dissipating.

Due to its historic nature, Greenland requested retirement. The name Jennifer will be used in 2022.


SS Karl (Oct 3-9, 6.5 days)- 70 kt / 80 mph, "Category 1"

Forms W of Azores. Makes a loop and starts a strange, meandering path toward Azores. Reaches 65 kt / 75 mph S of Azores Oct 8 5 pm and peaks 12 hours later as the general public is confused as to why there is no sort of "subtropical hurricane" designation. Heads NE and turns ET Oct 9.

Lasts another 6.00 days as it takes another twisting path, being absorbed near Ireland.

After the season, the NHC adds the category "subtropical cyclone" to refer to hurricane-strength cold-core systems.


TS Lisa (Oct 8-13, 4.75 days)- 45 kt / 50 mph

ULL digs down to surface hundreds of miles off EC. Makes a 270 degree turn from heading E to N, while peaking.

After turning ET E of Mass., lives another 1.75 days as it heads NNW into Canada, and then N.


Hurricane Matthew (Oct 26-29, 2.75 days)- 90 kt / 100 mph, Category 2

TW forms in S Caribbean. Quickly organizes until landfall in Nicaragua at peak.


TS Nicole (Nov 29- Dec 4, 4.25 days)- 45 kt / 50 mph

Forms out of nowhere in subtopics from ET storm. Heads generally SW through its life.

14/8/2
ACE: Slightly above average

[mrbagyo]

I guess, the big one will be Hurricane Gaston in Southern Florida (mid-Cat 4) on mid-August.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Lagreeneyes03]

Hermine the Horrible...US Landfall, 3 Miami. Ian thereafter but on a recurve and fishes as a 4. Lisa will threaten the same area but ends up going south of FL into the gulf and hits Corpus Christi as a 3

[FireRat]

Here so far I have a feeling for:

Colin...already looking like a TS for FL, maybe Cat 1?
Danielle...Cat 1-2
Earl...Cat 2
Fiona...Cat 1-2
GASTON...Cat 3-4...big Cape Verde storm, strikes land?
Ian...Cat 2-3...Landfalling CV storm?
Julia...Cat 1-2
KARL...Cat 4...September beast from the east?
Matthew...Cat 1-2...big flood maker behind Karl?
Shary...TS-Cat 1... October Flood maker.
TOBIAS...Cat 5...Late Season Monster, like 1932 Nov?

With the head start we seem to be having this season, who knows, maybe we do get all the way to "Terrible Tobie"?