My buddies hurricane prediction-2016

[stormlover2013]

He is a meterologist at universal weather and does his prediction every year:
Hurricane Prediction 2016





Good afternoon everyone,



I hope the weekend treated all of you well and that everything going great in your world.



Well, here we are again in May already. Just hard to believe we are halfway through the 5th month of 2016. Amazing!



That also means we are nearing hurricane season as well. The official start is June 1 and the season runs through November 30. What many of you may have forgotten, we actually had a named storm already for the 2016 season, which was hurricane Alex, which formed in January. This formed out in the open Atlantic and wreaked havoc across Europe once it moved there.



So here is what we are looking at this year compared to last. If you remember, last year we were nearing a moderate to strong El Nino. This usually translates to a quieter Atlantic season and a very active Pacific season. This held true as we saw 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes which are category 3 or greater (winds higher than 111 mph.) We look at the average as being 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 2-3 becoming major hurricanes. On average we see 2 of those striking the US mainland.



For 2016, we are transitioning into La Nina which means more rising air (fuel for thunderstorms and hurricanes) across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This will also mean quieter conditions for those in the Pacific. The waters off of South America have been cooling and this is the transition to La Nina. A reminder once again, El Nino occurs when waters off the South America warm. La Nina, waters off the coast cool.



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The reason I am showing this drought monitor index is what happens some of the time is an upper ridge of high pressure usually parks itself over the area where rain has been tough to come by. So by looking at this map, you’re probably thinking for sure California but where else could high pressure park itself at? My guess currently would be across northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, western North and South Carolina. Remember, high pressure blocks anything from heading towards it, and instead systems track around it and this leads to the next part of my prediction for this upcoming hurricane season.



Due to the very wet spring we have seen here anywhere from the Texas coastline, eastward towards Louisiana, I really think high pressure is going to have a hard time setting up camp across this area. It could happen but it will not be long term like we saw with the drought of 2011-2012.



So first of all, here are my predictions for probably of a coastline strike for the hurricane season of 2016:



Maine to Virginia – 5-10%



Virginia to Georgia – 20-25%



Florida – 15-20% but especially southern Florida



Mississippi/Alabama – 15-20%



Louisiana/Texas – 25-30%



How are storm prediction numbers determined each year you may ask? Well, typically we look at what we call analog years which compares the weather patterns, El Nino versus La Nina, etc of this year to years’ past. This allows us to gauge and get a better understanding of what could happen this year. What is strange about this season is the transition out of El Nino has been very extreme from years of less than 10 storms to seasons with between 20-25.



My prediction for this upcoming hurricane season is 12-14 named storms, 5-7 becoming hurricanes and 3-4 becoming a major hurricane, being a category 3 or higher. I also think we will have a higher than average mark of US mainland strikes which is more than two but I am thinking maybe 3-4 total.



Now what could throw a wrench in this all is the Saharan Air. This is when dust off of Africa blows off the continent and is absorbed by the mid to upper layers of the atmosphere. Dry air is no good for hurricane formation and this has been an issue over the past few years as well. Here is a good link of that where the yellows, oranges and red indicate the Saharan air.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html



As you can see as clouds move into those colored areas, they completely fizzle out and this is what it can do to hurricane or tropical formation as well. I have been reading that Africa has seen a wetter than average season so far so the dust may be held at bay but I will have to wait and see if that actually happens.



So there you have it, my prediction for the hurricane season 2016.



I wanted to ask you your opinion on a couple of things folks. The first thing I had to ask is do you enjoy the layout of these emails? For those of you receiving these for the first time, what do you think so far? I know it is a very small sample size but just curious. Another thought I have been throwing out there to some of my friends and family is do you think having a Facebook hurricane page would be better or would you prefer emails? The way the Facebook hurricane page would work is I would invite you to my page and then each time I updated it, you would be notified. I wouldn’t do it to where it would be blowing up your notifications on Facebook, I would send it out like I do emails; when there is a threat to anywhere along the Gulf Coast. Please let me know your thoughts and I will do what is necessary to either change it, or keep it the same.



As always, I thoroughly enjoy sending these emails to you each season and giving you my thoughts on what may happen as I hope you do as well. If there is anyone you know who would like to be added to this email list, please also let me know and I will be more than happy to add them. Thanks again everyone and I hope you all have a great week!!