Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[AdamFirst]

The 00z GFS loses this completely after it enters Florida, whereas previous model runs still had defined, albeit weak, systems emerging quickly into the Atlantic.

A sheared storm, with most of the energy displaced to the east, should probably be the safe bet here. A run at intensification, if any, would probably occur during its time over the Gulf Stream, after it vacates Florida.

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EURO run beginning shortly.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see what the Euro shows.

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be particularly conducive for tropical cyclone formation, additional development of the low could occur when it moves generally northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This system is likely to produce heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida peninsula.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro coming out a little stronger this run.

[TheStormExpert]

More organized @ Hr.96.

[Hammy]

Euro coming out a little stronger this run.

What's particularly interesting with this as well is that the Euro has been essentially following the GEM, with the latter trending first.

[tailgater]

Well this system will not be be a naked swirl in it's early stages


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Loop of disturbed area in NW Caribbean from Ramdis floater.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[SFLcane]

06z GFS has shredded mess into central Florida. Rainfall will be headline here as is with most June systems.

[drezee]

Loop of disturbed area in NW Caribbean from Ramdis floater.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yes, Shortwave IR clearly shows wind curvature around Nic/Honduras border. Pressures below 1010...interesting

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the satellite loop to my untrained eye, it possibly appears that may be where our developing Low Pressure area may be originating right now. There is a very pronounced spin off the Nicaragua coast from the mid-levels which may be trying to obtain a low level surface reflection.
.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS has shredded mess into central Florida. Rainfall will be headline here as is with most June systems.

if the front stalls as predicted next week someone has a chance of some really big rains after the low departs

[NDG]

I think that as soon we start seeing a low level vorticity developing in the NW Caribbean/GOH area an invest will be up.

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016


CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave
moving across the SW waters discussed in more details in the
tropical waves section. An upper trough over the SW N Atlantic
with base near the Windward passage and a broad ridge anchored N
of Colombia promote a diffluent and unstable environment across
the SW, central and portions of NW Caribbean. Given the favorable
lifting dynamics and the presence of the tropical wave, numerous heavy
showers and tstms are occurring from 15N-20N between 76W and 83W
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 15N
between 73W and 80W. Scattered to isolated showers are occurring
elsewhere E of 73W. Strong high pres NE of the Caribbean tightens
the gradient and support moderate to fresh trades over the
eastern basin and fresh to strong S of 18N E of the tropical wave
axis to 66W. The area of fresh to strong trades are expected to
expand and drift W-NW as the tropical wave continues its westward
path and a low pres forms over the weekend N of Honduras. Strong
to near gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area
on its eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and
Yucatan Channel region.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%/60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheStormExpert]

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[gatorcane]

I think that as soon we start seeing a low level vorticity developing in the NW Caribbean/GOH area an invest will be up.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 5pqm0s.jpg

Agreed. Spin is clearly evident. Maybe even an invest later today.

[cycloneye]

My personal odds of having Invest 93L sometime on Friday are up to 80%.

[cycloneye]

Great video by Levi Cowen about the disturbance.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... next-week/