4th Named Storm in the Atlantic before July?

[chaser1]

You know what? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess "yes".

Any takers on that bet? We've already beaten the Atlantic record for earliest date for the 3rd storm to form. Anyone know what that date/record is for the 4th named tropical storm?

[Siker]

It's Debby 2012 on June 23rd.

[hcane27]

June 23 , 2012

[CaliforniaResident]

My personal prediction: TS Danielle will form on June 13th and it will be a hurricane the day after.

[chaser1]

Hey, looking at the satellite a few seconds ago it may well be an East Pac T.D.1 moving into the Gulf within 48 hours?? LOL

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee mentioned possibility in their afternoon discussion

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will generally build over the area this period
as the large trough lifts away to the northeast. This will allow
temps to gradually increase. At the surface, both the GFS and NAM
show another weak low drifting northward across the eastern GOMEX,
originating from the blob of convection currently over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Its too early to tell whether this will
actually occur. For now, the forecast is pretty dry through the end
of the weak with some slight to low chance PoPs edging northward
into the region from Friday through the weekend. However, it would
still be prudent to keep an eye on the tropics.

[TheStormExpert]

Hey, looking at the satellite a few seconds ago it may well be an East Pac T.D.1 moving into the Gulf within 48 hours?? LOL

Even if it does make it to the SW GoM/BoC shear will likely take care of it!

[thundercam96]

Could this theory verify though? Is shear expected to be strong in the timeframe it would move into the gulf?

[TheAustinMan]

Could this theory verify though? Is shear expected to be strong in the timeframe it would move into the gulf?

Having Tropical Depression One-E's circulation to remain intact if it decides to cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is already a daunting task in and of itself, and would require particularly outstanding conditions to complete. So far, it appears that 01-E is in a rather unfavorable environment, and from satellite imagery it looks like the disturbance is already having problems with its mid-level circulation stubbornly flying off into Mexico while the low-level spin lags behind, so the overall circulation looks to be fairly fragile, even with the innate curvature of the coastline aiding the storm's spin.

Based on the latest model tracks, the NHC track, and the current atmospheric conditions, I don't think we'll be seeing One-E's circulation crossing over, intact, into the Gulf of Mexico (specifically, the Bay of Campeche). It's unclear that One-E will even track towards the Gulf, and personally I think the circulation will diffuse and dissipate over the Mexican highlands. That said, shear is expected to drop over the Gulf of Mexico this week - the trough that has so heavily sheared Colin in the gulf should move out of the way, and a shear-reducing upper-level anticyclone should settle in the Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend. Thus, the upper-level setup should be favorable if a disturbance does make it into the region. So far the global forecast models don't seem to be developing much of anything in the gulf come this weekend; the GFS was hinting at a Bay of Camepeche disturbance prior to Colin's formation, but has since dropped that forecast.

However, it would be prudent to watch the area for potential tropical shenanigans late this week into early next week. Although One-E probably won't be around for very long, it's a possibility that the remnant moisture from the depression will still be around the area late this week: the development of a mid-level anticyclone over the Greater Antilles will help to prevent moisture from the Yucatan from completely getting sucked up into the same trough that is expected to take Colin out to sea over the subtropical Atlantic. That moisture will also be combining with an influx of moisture from the the tropical wave currently near the Lesser Antilles this weekend, so we might be seeing a hodgepodge of showers over the Western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche with this convergence of shower activity. By that time, the upper-level anticyclone will have moved into the Gulf, providing a low-shear environment. It's a limited timeframe, though - the GFS has favorable <10kt shear values on Saturday, but hikes it up to the 20-30kt range by Monday once the upper-level anticyclone progresses over Mexico. So far, there's not much model support, but the Bay of Campeche, with its coastal curvature, has a bit of a reputation for being able to quickly spin-up storms like a tropical nursery of sorts. It'd be wise to watch the area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[thundercam96]

Could this theory verify though? Is shear expected to be strong in the timeframe it would move into the gulf?

Having Tropical Depression One-E's circulation to remain intact if it decides to cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec is already a daunting task in and of itself, and would require particularly outstanding conditions to complete. So far, it appears that 01-E is in a rather unfavorable environment, and from satellite imagery it looks like the disturbance is already having problems with its mid-level circulation stubbornly flying off into Mexico while the low-level spin lags behind, so the overall circulation looks to be fairly fragile, even with the innate curvature of the coastline aiding the storm's spin.

Based on the latest model tracks, the NHC track, and the current atmospheric conditions, I don't think we'll be seeing One-E's circulation crossing over, intact, into the Gulf of Mexico (specifically, the Bay of Campeche). It's unclear that One-E will even track towards the Gulf, and personally I think the circulation will diffuse and dissipate over the Mexican highlands. That said, shear is expected to drop over the Gulf of Mexico this week - the trough that has so heavily sheared Colin in the gulf should move out of the way, and a shear-reducing upper-level anticyclone should settle in the Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend. Thus, the upper-level setup should be favorable if a disturbance does make it into the region. So far the global forecast models don't seem to be developing much of anything in the gulf come this weekend; the GFS was hinting at a Bay of Camepeche disturbance prior to Colin's formation, but has since dropped that forecast.

However, it would be prudent to watch the area for potential tropical shenanigans late this week into early next week. Although One-E probably won't be around for very long, it's a possibility that the remnant moisture from the depression will still be around the area late this week: the development of a mid-level anticyclone over the Greater Antilles will help to prevent moisture from the Yucatan from completely getting sucked up into the same trough that is expected to take Colin out to sea over the subtropical Atlantic. That moisture will also be combining with an influx of moisture from the the tropical wave currently near the Lesser Antilles this weekend, so we might be seeing a hodgepodge of showers over the Western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche with this convergence of shower activity. By that time, the upper-level anticyclone will have moved into the Gulf, providing a low-shear environment. It's a limited timeframe, though - the GFS has favorable <10kt shear values on Saturday, but hikes it up to the 20-30kt range by Monday once the upper-level anticyclone progresses over Mexico. So far, there's not much model support, but the Bay of Campeche, with its coastal curvature, has a bit of a reputation for being able to quickly spin-up storms like a tropical nursery of sorts. It'd be wise to watch the area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for the insight! It will be definitely something to entertain us... I am already feeling the effects of TC tracking withdrawal.

[TheStormExpert]

Personally I hope and believe we will go the rest of June without another named storm in the Atlantic Basin. Conditions are just too hostile with decapitating shear throughout most of the basin and with the lack of instability in parts of the basin the MJO seems to be the only ignition for tropical development right now.

Hopefully as we head into July the Atlantic pulls together to produce a quality storm or two.

[Alyono]

while we've had 3 storms, not one has formed in the tropics.

We've had a medicane, an upper low that transitioned, and a monsoon trough that developed strictly due to baroclinic forcing

[Darvince]

and tbh the medicane was the only one worth its weight

[Hammy]

while we've had 3 storms, not one has formed in the tropics.

Wasn't this the case with the four that formed in 2012 before July as well?

[stormwise]

I go for another one within the next 15 days also in the GOM. Four named storms at this point of time suits my high season numbers.

[NDG]

while we've had 3 storms, not one has formed in the tropics.

We've had a medicane, an upper low that transitioned, and a monsoon trough that developed strictly due to baroclinic forcing

Wrong!
Colin formed over the tropics, right below the Tropic of Cancer as a TD and a TS right over the imaginary line
STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[HurricaneRyan]

I'll only be interested in Danielle forming if she beats Debby's record (who already beat Dennis's record from 2005 ). Otherwise, I can wait.

[thundercam96]

New thread hinting to convection in the NW Caribbean that is worth watching....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117960

[Alyono]

while we've had 3 storms, not one has formed in the tropics.

Wasn't this the case with the four that formed in 2012 before July as well?

However, Debby was primarily a tropical wave, not an enhanced monsoon trough that may have had a small enhancement from a wave

[CrazyC83]

while we've had 3 storms, not one has formed in the tropics.

Wasn't this the case with the four that formed in 2012 before July as well?

Yes it was. The first *truly* tropical system in 2012 was Ernesto. Alberto and Beryl formed off stalled fronts, Chris from a previously non-tropical low in the subtropics and Debby was a complex feature in the Gulf like Colin.