NW Caribbean Convection

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I was leaning mid-level as well. However, if convection can flare-up over that area today, it would not take much for this system to work down to the surface. It is something to watch for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind shear seems to be low and decreasing, and there is a anti-cyclone over the western tip of Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

Shows up nicely on the visible satellite loop, but convection is minimal at best at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

Observing Key West radar, starting to see possibly some convection beginning to flare within the circulation. If we see a substantial increase with convection today, we will see this work down to the surface. Definirely a mid-level circulation for now.

[jlauderdal]

Observing Key West radar, starting to see possibly some convection beginning to flare within the circulation. If we see a substantial increase with convection today, we will see this work down to the surface. Definirely a mid-level circulation for now.

[tropicwatch]

Close to live visible zoomed loop of area.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-86.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[TheAustinMan]

Code: Select all

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disturbed weather extending from near western Cuba to the southern
Florida Peninsula is associated with a weak trough.  This system is
expected to move northeastward and eastward over the next couple of
days, and significant development is not anticipated.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the
western Bahamas through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Pasch


[wxman57]

10% is the lowest probability the NHC identifies. Development chances may be lower than 10% but I don't think they're zero with this wave. Lots of shear to contend with in the western Caribbean & eastern Gulf, as we saw with Colin.

[HurricaneEric]

10% is the lowest probability the NHC identifies. Development chances may be lower than 10% but I don't think they're zero with this wave. Lots of shear to contend with in the western Caribbean & eastern Gulf, as we saw with Colin.

Not much sheer around the system at the moment and the sheer is forecast to drop there. Only reason I see it being such a low development chance is its not going to get a chance to develop soon as it tracks over South Fla.

[stormwise]

EC has that LP Meandering about the vorticity is evident on wind realtime earthmaps, if it can get some moisture flowing in may cause some weather for Florida down the road.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather extending from western Cuba across the
southern Florida Peninsula and into the western Bahamas is
associated with a weak surface trough. This system is expected to
move northeastward and eastward over the next day or so, and
significant development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of western
Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the western
Bahamas through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

No more mention.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[stormwise]

Big wind field

[tropicwatch]

Either there is a mlc or ulc around the tip of Yucatan or my eyes are playing tricks on me

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-88&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[northjaxpro]

yeah, there is some type of mid level spin right where you pointed out panama