Area near the Bahamas

[AJC3]

Just wanted to throw this out there...

While I don't think a TC will form in this area due to forecast strong upper tropospheric wind shear, the mass of convection well off the east coast of Florida is along a stalled frontal boundary, in an area of broad low level horizontal cyclonic shear. All of the global and mesoscale model guidance scoot this feature quickly off to the ENE, but then forecast a second weak low to form by late Friday night-Saturday Just off the southeast coast of Florida, over the northern Bahamas. It's more of a lower/subtropical latitude frontal low than anything else, however, I think there's probably some potential there for a brief invest.

Otherwise, there's nothing out there across the Atlantic really worth looking at.

[psyclone]

We really got hosed by Colin so I'm delighted with the tranquility.

[Nimbus]

That little pocket of leftover energy northwest of the tip of Cuba would have to migrate almost due east to get in the Bahamas?
There is too much shear in the northern gulf for anything to develop there.

[AJC3]

That little pocket of leftover energy northwest of the tip of Cuba would have to migrate almost due east to get in the Bahamas?
There is too much shear in the northern gulf for anything to develop there.

What I was alluding to was more of an in situ development. WPC actually has the weak frontal type wave forming over the SE peninsula. Again, like it's predecessor that I alluded to yesteday when it was east of central FL, this is very unlikely to develop, and in fact has even less of a chance to become a brief invest than I thought yesterday.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=ndfd&arrval=3&vtime=Sat_12Z&ptime=Sat_06Z&ntime=Sun_00Z

[NDG]

I would hate to call it a frontal boundary currently, is now more like a stalled surface trough

[AJC3]

:uarrow: I would hate to call it a frontal boundary currently, is now more like a stalled surface trough

Yeah, here in the office, we refer to these as "frontal troughs". Basically it's a former surface front that pretty much lost it's temperature and dew point discontinuity (or it's become very diffuse at best) and all that remains is some residual wind covergence.

[NDG]

:uarrow: I would hate to call it a frontal boundary currently, is now more like a stalled surface trough

Yeah, here in the office, we refer to these as "frontal troughs". Basically it's a former surface front that pretty much lost it's temperature and dew point discontinuity (or it's become very diffuse at best) and all that remains is some residual wind covergence.

Thank you for the clarification.

[tropicwatch]

Late yesterday afternoon you could see a circulation on radar moving east over the Florida Peninsula. It is noticeable on visible satellite now.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26.5&lon=-79&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=8

[jlauderdal]

We really got hosed by Colin so I'm delighted with the tranquility.

We didnt get much from colin but as previously thought we sure have ramped up the totals since weds and more on the way..

[floridasun78]

other post was delete .so you all think we may see low forming that area?

[AJC3]

other post was delete .so you all think we may see low forming that area?

It appears to have already formed into a weak low. Your other post was deleted because you asked if a tropical low was going to form in that area, and it's already been stated that whatever forms in that area will not be a tropical cyclone (TC), but instead a frontal wave.