Cut Off Upper low in the Caribbean

[tailgater]

Not likely to transform into LLC but might bring some of us GOMers some weather.

[abajan]

I just noticed it and thought I would hop on over to S2K to see if there were any threads about it. Looks kinda robust to me. I won't completely rule out formation of an LLC. It's in a favorable area for early in the hurricane season.

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Fast easterlies underneath it so I doubt it a surface low will develop out of it.

[northjaxpro]

I am not anticipating development of this upper level low But, remember these features somehow and every once in awhile can work themselves down to the surface. Joaquin is the best example to think back on just last October, which I initially called, went on a gut hunch and called for such development at that time.

Always watch these features nonetheless!!

[tropicwatch]

Pretty impressive looking.

[thundercam96]

Pretty impressive looking.

That does look impressing!!

[gatorcane]

I am not anticipating development of this upper level low But, remember these features somehow and every once in awhile can work themselves down to the surface. Joaquin is the best example to think back on just last October, which I initially called, went on a gut hunch and called for such development at that time.

Always watch these features nonetheless!!

northjaxpro that was a great call you made on Joaquin. I remember the models were not too enthusiastic even in the medium-range guidance then suddenly I remember the ECMWF in just one run when from nothing to very bullish so predicting genesis from these features can be tricky.

As for this low, I agree, no model support, fast moving easterlies but pretty nice signature on the SAT loops!

[northjaxpro]

Thanks gatorcane. Yeah, that is a call I almost never stick my neck out and predict for development, especially without model support, from that upper low. The days prior to the spawning of Joaquin, I had noticed a trend of convection building within the circulation of the upper low, and I just went with my instinct that the ULL may be transitioning to the surface.If my memory serves me right, the upper low also interacted with a surface trough about 2-3 days before the transition occured as well. I just got extremely lucky with that call. However, it is a call in which since I feel fortunate in sharing it with many of you on this forum, especially considering what a monster Joaquin ended up being .

I do not envision this current ULL in the Caribbean developing, but follow it just in case.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like some convection building with the ULL in the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-animated.gif

[NDG]

Looks like some convection building with the ULL in the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-animated.gif

Tropical wave interacting with the ULL, which is forecasted to move into C.A.