Posible development in BOC? (Is Invest 94L)

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cycloneye
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Posible development in BOC? (Is Invest 94L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:40 pm

Here we go.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure could form in association with a
tropical wave crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday
or Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system if the low emerges over the waters
of the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Re: Bay of Campeche Development?

#2 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:51 pm

Just running through the models and the Euro tries to develop a TD before it pushes inland in northern Mexico GFS has a weaker system a little farther south into Mexico and The biggest out-lier by far. But i guess it deserves a mention barely. Gfs 18z is even weaker.

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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#3 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:06 pm

Glad to see this mentioned. Models almost always struggle with disturbances in the Bay of Campeche because the curvature of the coastline and the mountains that line the coastline tend to aid in the formation of a closed low. Wind shear is forecast to be light. The GFS and ECMWF show weak lows, but several ensemble members have developed cyclones. The CMC and NAVGEM, although less reliable, also show cyclones.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#4 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:25 pm

The models are showing it weak because it does not have much time at all to develop. Strong high pressure building in the southeast pushing whatever it becomes quickly west into Mexico. Of course the navgem is a complete joke, no way that is even going to come close to verifying :roll:
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#5 Postby stormwise » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:55 am

Image
00z GEFS has a cluster of lows 1012-1011s down there on the 20th, however the model run devolops nothing out to the 25th.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:13 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Environmental conditions could favor the formation of a broad area
of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche when a westward moving
tropical wave reaches the area later this weekend. Some slight
development of this low is possible on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:11 am

A weak area of low pressure in the BoC that moves into southern Mexico is most likely. Slight chance it could be classified as a TD before it moves into Mexico. Little chance of it tracking northward, except maybe after it has moved inland.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:47 am

The ECMWF ensembles have marginal (20%-30%) forecast of development.

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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#9 Postby xcool22 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:47 am

cycloneye wrote:The ECMWF ensembles have marginal (20%-30%) forecast of development.

http://i.imgur.com/uchQSQf.jpg


do you have link to that website?
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#10 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:04 pm

xcool22 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The ECMWF ensembles have marginal (20%-30%) forecast of development.

http://i.imgur.com/uchQSQf.jpg


do you have link to that website?


That image appears to be from a paid WSI website. However, there are other good sites that deal with possible TC formation.

NOAA's website is a good start. Scroll way down to the bottom to see current instability levels across the basin:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Here's Dr. Mike Ventrice's website. His can be a bit technical:
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/index.html
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:24 pm

Not a surprise.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is expected to reach the Bay of Campeche over the
weekend. Significant development of system has become less likely
due to the interaction with land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#12 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:44 pm

xcool22 wrote:
do you have link to that website?


Its from a paid website, but @MJVentrice on Twitter will tweet some of the Euro ensembles stuff.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#13 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:42 pm

They dropped the 5 day chance of development down to 10 percent, maybe a little further south in the BOC than they thought earlier?
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:09 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua,
and the adjacent waters of the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due
to interaction with land while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the Bay of Campeche over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#15 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:32 pm

12zECMWF Ensemble#37 bring a healthy TS to Brownsville by day 6...Huge outlier model as none of the ensemble show this.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:46 pm

The beginnings of this might be starting in the NW Caribbean as we speak

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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#17 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:00 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The beginnings of this might be starting in the NW Caribbean as we speak

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That's the tropical wave we've tracked since it moved off the coast of Africa 10 days ago (or so). It's the feature that moves across the BoC Sunday/Monday. Looks impressive on satellite this evening, very robust wave. I suspect we'll see a good number of them in the NW Caribbean this year, and this year they'll have a much better shot at developing. Not this one, most likely. Perhaps a weak low will move ashore into Mexico near Tampico on Tuesday morning.
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#18 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:55 pm

Vorticity map shows something above Cuba.

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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2016 6:42 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to
interaction with land while the system moves west-northwestward
around 10 mph toward the Bay of Campeche over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Posible development in BOC?

#20 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:21 am

0z Euro develps a low pressure over the southern BOC Sunday morning with a very good UL environment, moves it very slowly WNW towards the MX coast making landfall south of Tampico near Tuxpam Tuesday morning. They need to watch that possible system we know how fast they can strengthen with good UL environment down there.
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