5th named storm by July 11th?

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weathaguyry
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5th named storm by July 11th?

#1 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:36 pm

I heard some people talking about the GFS sending a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico in the first few days of July. I wouldn't rule it out, based on the surprises the Atlantic has bought us so far!
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#2 Postby thundercam96 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:05 pm

This season is turning heads already, with the 4th named storm on the verge of transitioning to a named storm already (I think).
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#3 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:27 pm

Any particular significance to the date - July 11?
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:34 pm

chaser1 wrote:Any particular significance to the date - July 11?

That's the record for the earliest forming "E" storm.(Emily - 2005)
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#5 Postby Huckster » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:34 pm

July 11th is the date Hurricane Emily formed in 2005.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:03 am

C-D-E storms in 2005 were all Hurricanes though.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:35 am

Now that we have Danielle we look for what's next?

I think it is very possible that we see Earl by July 11th if the last several runs of the GFS are anything to go by, I will also go out and say it will form in the Western Caribbean around the July 4th holiday weekend with the MJO I believe being forecasted to come back into our region.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:55 am

Cody Fields
@wxtrackercody

Strong CCKW will reach the Atlantic to start July. Watch Gulf/Caribbean-a strong development signal already showing.

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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#9 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:28 pm

It was not so surprising to me to get one named storm in June, and that was excluding the Jan storm. But I must admit I am becoming a bit concerned that we already have had 4 named storms and June is not even over. So who knows what August and Sept could possibly bring. I am well aware that conditions can change in a hurry sheer SAL, front coming down early, but this could prove to be one busy season.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#10 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:33 pm

The way things are going I think there's a good chance of the 5th name storm to form in the next 10-20 days, IMO.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#11 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:41 pm

Normally I would not say this but I agree with you 100%.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#12 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:35 pm

I think another significance here is July 11 is, I believe the average date of the first storm--so we'd be at least 5/1/0 by the time we're normally at 1/0/0...

Interestingly 2012 (the old D record) was also 4/1/0 by the end of June.
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Re: 5th named storm by July 11th?

#13 Postby stormwise » Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:45 pm

Thinking In 8-10 days in the GOM based on EPS/GEFS ens runs.
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