9 years without a Cat.5 (2007-2016)

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arkestra
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9 years without a Cat.5 (2007-2016)

#1 Postby arkestra » Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:47 am

... is it a record?
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:44 am

There haven't been any Category 5 hurricanes between 1938 and 1953, so it's not a record yet, but still a remarkable streak and the longest in the satellite era.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#3 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:59 am

There were a handful of high-end Category 4 canes though in the Atlantic, shy of being Cat 5's... Igor easily comes to mind..
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#4 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:31 am

Joaquin also was very close to Cat 5 strength last year
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#5 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:35 am

I got no problem with another 9.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#6 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:39 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:I got no problem with another 9.


I second this.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:46 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:I got no problem with another 9.


I second this.

Give us a Cat.5 that goes out to sea causing no harm.
:fishing:
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#8 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:I got no problem with another 9.


I second this.

Give us a Cat.5 that goes out to sea causing no harm.
:fishing:


I could live with that :wink:
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#9 Postby tatertawt24 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:51 pm

There are a few storms that I wouldn't be surprised if they had briefly attained cat 5 strength while recon wasn't there. Igor and Joaquin come to mind. Also, Gustav was certainly very close when he made landfall in Cuba.

But in terms of "Super" hurricanes that reach intensities of 175mph, yes it's been a very long time.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#10 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:56 pm

The only way we will get a Cat 5 is if we get a storm that ends up affecting an area of land later on. Every single storm that reached Category 5 strength in the last 37 years affected land at some point during their lifespan.

David - Dominican Republic, Florida
Allen - Texas
Gilbert - Jamaica, Mexico
Hugo - Puerto Rico, South Carolina
Andrew - Florida, Louisiana
Mitch - Central America
Isabel - North Carolina
Ivan - Florida, Alabama, Texas
Emily - Mexico
Katrina - Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida
Rita - Louisiana, Texas
Wilma - Mexico, Florida
Dean - Mexico
Felix - Central America

I do think Igor may have been Category 5 at some point, but even then, he affected Newfoundland in the end.

If we get a Cat 5 this season, it most likely will not be over open water.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#11 Postby abajan » Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:52 am

I'm sure I read (from a reputable source) that on average, Cat5s occur just once per decade. So, assuming my info's correct, not having had one for 9 years won't be a record.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#12 Postby Kazmit » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:39 pm

Still though, the past few decades have been significantly active in terms of the amount of Cat 5s in the atlantic, with an average of one occuring every 2-3 years. So this streak surprises me...
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:26 pm

Category 5s in the Atlantic:

1924 Storm #10 (Cuba Hurricane) 145KT 910mb
1928 Storm #4 (Okeechobee/San Felipe Hurricane) 140KT 929mb
1932 Storm #4 (Bahamas Hurricane) 140KT 931mb
1932 Storm #14 (Cuba Hurricane) 150KT 915mb
1933 Storm #8 (Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane) 140KT 930mb
1933 Storm #14 (Tampico Hurricane) 140KT 929mb
1935 Storm #3 (Labor Day Hurricane) 160KT 892mb
1938 Storm #6 (Great New England Hurricane) 140KT 940mb
1953 Hurricane Carol 140KT 929mb
1955 Hurricane Janet 150KT 914mb
1961 Hurricane Carla 150KT 931mb
1961 Hurricane Hattie 140KT 920mb
1967 Hurricane Beulah 140KT 923mb
1969 Hurricane Camille 150KT 900mb
1971 Hurricane Edith 140KT 943mb
1977 Hurricane Anita 150KT 926mb
1979 Hurricane David 150KT 924mb
1980 Hurricane Allen 165KT 899mb
1988 Hurricane Gilbert 160KT 888mb
1989 Hurricane Hugo 140KT 918mb
1992 Hurricane Andrew 150KT 922mb
1998 Hurricane Mitch 155KT 905mb
2003 Hurricane Isabel 145KT 915mb
2004 Hurricane Ivan 145KT 910mb
2005 Hurricane Emily 140KT 929mb
2005 Hurricane Katrina 150KT 902mb
2005 Hurricane Rita 155KT 895mb
2005 Hurricane Wilma 160KT 882mb
2007 Hurricane Dean 150KT 905mb
2007 Hurricane Felix 150KT 929mb
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:32 pm

The current streak without an Atlantic Basin category 5 is currently the longest in the last 50 years (1966-present day), a period of time that has seen regular aircraft reconnaissance and roughly coincides with the satellite era. The previous longest streak in this sample was the eight years between Allen '80 and Gilbert '88. Considering the small statistical sample size, it's hard to say if the current streak is unusual. The sample size could be increased, but doing so would likely introduce an undercount bias due to less advanced means of storm detection in years longer past. Of course, having too small of a sample size isn't necessarily any better, but I digress.

Using the aforementioned time period of 1966 to now, 18 category 5s were observed in those 50 years. This works out to one every 2.78 years or so, although eight were seen in the prolific five year period consisting of 2003 to 2007.

As for my opinion, The current category 5 drought does seem a little longer than average, but it's probably nothing too unusual.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#15 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:00 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Category 5s in the Atlantic:

1924 Storm #10 (Cuba Hurricane) 145KT 910mb
1928 Storm #4 (Okeechobee/San Felipe Hurricane) 140KT 929mb
1932 Storm #4 (Bahamas Hurricane) 140KT 931mb
1932 Storm #14 (Cuba Hurricane) 150KT 915mb
1933 Storm #8 (Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane) 140KT 930mb
1933 Storm #14 (Tampico Hurricane) 140KT 929mb
1935 Storm #3 (Labor Day Hurricane) 160KT 892mb
1938 Storm #6 (Great New England Hurricane) 140KT 940mb
1953 Hurricane Carol 140KT 929mb
1955 Hurricane Janet 150KT 914mb
1961 Hurricane Carla 150KT 931mb
1961 Hurricane Hattie 140KT 920mb
1967 Hurricane Beulah 140KT 923mb
1969 Hurricane Camille 150KT 900mb
1971 Hurricane Edith 140KT 943mb
1977 Hurricane Anita 150KT 926mb
1979 Hurricane David 150KT 924mb
1980 Hurricane Allen 165KT 899mb
1988 Hurricane Gilbert 160KT 888mb
1989 Hurricane Hugo 140KT 918mb
1992 Hurricane Andrew 150KT 922mb
1998 Hurricane Mitch 155KT 905mb
2003 Hurricane Isabel 145KT 915mb
2004 Hurricane Ivan 145KT 910mb
2005 Hurricane Emily 140KT 929mb
2005 Hurricane Katrina 150KT 902mb
2005 Hurricane Rita 155KT 895mb
2005 Hurricane Wilma 160KT 882mb
2007 Hurricane Dean 150KT 905mb
2007 Hurricane Felix 150KT 929mb


Interesting to note 1930s had many Category 5 hurricanes like in the 2000s. 1932 and 1933 had two Category 5 hurricanes. No surprise about 1933.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#16 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:22 pm

The drought is finally over!
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#17 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:28 pm

This thread is so last year. :D
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#18 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:28 pm

You know the irony of this development into a Cat 5 of Matthew today is that tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of another deadly tropical cyclone, Joaquin, in the Bahamas and now they have to worry about this Beast headed towards them beginning potentially early next week.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#19 Postby Steve820 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:04 pm

Excluding the period from 1938 to 1953, 9 years was the longest streak AFAIK. It is really incredible how the Atlantic went this long without a single C5. I was very surprised when Matthew RI'd to this category. Now that Matthew pulled off this stunt, our streak is reset. Unless a miracle occurs, the next streak shouldn't be nearly as long as the 2007-2016 steak of no C5s.
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Re: 9 years without a Cat.5

#20 Postby TimeZone » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:49 am

Matthew said enough was enough.
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